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OT: Monsoon Returning?

2K views 34 replies 19 participants last post by  raisingarizona 
#1 · (Edited)
Change in the weather…

Sunrise over the western flanks of the Santa Catalina Mountains. From the left: Harris's Hawk on top of utility pole, foothills to Charouleau Gap, Samaniego Ridge leading up to the 'three peaks' (elevation 7127 ft).

Nature Blue Sky Daytime Natural environment


The clouds portend change and today could be a nice stormy one!

Photographed August 3, 2009 @ WowArizona.com
 
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1
#5 ·
It actually rained here at 1am or something, but it's been very week overall. If the monsoon does start up again, Tuscon will experience it first.
 
#6 · (Edited)
Not likely soon

Checking the NWS forecasts and warnings:
AZ Forecast Discussion--
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 031630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE UP 4 TO 10
DEGREES AT MOST REPORTING STATIONS SINCE YESTERDAY. 12Z FGZ
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES A SLIGHT EROSION ON THE CAP BETWEEN
400-500MBS...BUT THE PSR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE PAST 24HRS. GIVEN THESE DATA...A SLIGHT UPSWING IN THE
CONVECTION TODAY IS ON ORDER...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH...BUT DO NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF STORMS TOO FAR NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE RIM OR WHITE MOUNTINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE
TREND...AND AS SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE IMPACT THE STRONG TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MORNING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB FROM WHAT WAS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WE CAN EXPECT A GREATER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS AS A WEST COAST DISTURBANCE MOVES
INLAND. AS SUCH...A DRIER...WINDIER...AND A BIT COOLER SCENARIO
APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN TIME FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

Current warnings:
-- For Phoenix area;
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MARICOPA AND NORTHWEST PINAL
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST TODAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL RANGE FROM 109 TO NEAR 112 DEGREES.
ADDITIONALLY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY LOWERING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT EVEN MORE
OPPRESSIVE.

--- For the rest of the state
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

AZZ004>018-037>040-040715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH UNUSUALLY DRY
WEATHER FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
:madman: :madman: :madman: :madman:
 
#7 ·
It STORMED last night…

We had a great storm last night. Wind, thunder, lightning and (drums, please…) RAIN!!! Enough rain that the Rain Lillys (Zephranthes sp.) are blooming this morning.

Plant Flower Petal Botany Flowering plant


We received over .15 inches precipitation in last night's storm. The Santa Catalina Mountain western flanks should be nice and dust free for a couple of days. Enjoy the trails.
ShortBusJames said:
Checking the NWS forecasts and warnings:
AZ Forecast Discussion--
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 031630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE UP 4 TO 10
DEGREES AT MOST REPORTING STATIONS SINCE YESTERDAY. 12Z FGZ
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES A SLIGHT EROSION ON THE CAP BETWEEN
400-500MBS...BUT THE PSR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE PAST 24HRS. GIVEN THESE DATA...A SLIGHT UPSWING IN THE
CONVECTION TODAY IS ON ORDER...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH...BUT DO NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF STORMS TOO FAR NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE RIM OR WHITE MOUNTINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE
TREND...AND AS SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE IMPACT THE STRONG TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MORNING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB FROM WHAT WAS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WE CAN EXPECT A GREATER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS AS A WEST COAST DISTURBANCE MOVES
INLAND. AS SUCH...A DRIER...WINDIER...AND A BIT COOLER SCENARIO
APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN TIME FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

Current warnings:
-- For Phoenix area;
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MARICOPA AND NORTHWEST PINAL
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST TODAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL RANGE FROM 109 TO NEAR 112 DEGREES.
ADDITIONALLY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY LOWERING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT EVEN MORE
OPPRESSIVE.

--- For the rest of the state
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

AZZ004>018-037>040-040715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH UNUSUALLY DRY
WEATHER FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
:madman: :madman: :madman: :madman:
 
#8 ·
Woke up to overcast and light rain here. While it is supposed to be dry this weekend, it's also supposed to be cooler. Unfortunately I'll be in NorCal, but a high temp of 81 doesn't sound too bad to me.
 
#11 ·
It was all clouded up here and raining 2hrs ago when we took off, but while flying it dried up big time and doesn't look like we'll get any more rain today. :rolleyes:
 
#16 ·
yeah N Phx, driving from I17 & 101 to Carefree Highway & 7th st this AM i had to think about turning the windshield wipers on for a minute, then i came to my senses, rolled the window down and stuck my head out :) :thumbsup:

haha, hopefully we will see more of this?
 
#17 ·
Exodus11 said:
yeah N Phx, driving from I17 & 101 to Carefree Highway & 7th st this AM i had to think about turning the windshield wipers on for a minute, then i came to my senses, rolled the window down and stuck my head out :) :thumbsup:

haha, hopefully we will see more of this?
Not for a while :(

Unofficial Weather Forecast for the Prescott Area:

Thursday evening: Mostly clear and windy. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph in some areas.

Friday - Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. Southwest to west wind 5 to 15 mph. Morning lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Sunday - Monday: Sunny. Light south to southwest wind 5-10 mph. Morning low in the upper 50s. High in the upper 80s to near 90.

Tuesday - Thursday: Becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy each afternoon with a gradually increasing chance of high-based showers or thunderstorms. Morning lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.

Weather discussion:

An unseasonably strong Pacific storm system moving across the Great Basin has brought windy conditions across Arizona and produced severe thunderstorms in the northern Rockies today. The atmosphere has dried out significantly, and one should be concerned about forest fire potential this afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona with unusually windy and dry conditions for this time of year.

It does not appear that we will have any possibility of precipitation until about the middle of next week when high pressure rebuilds over New Mexico and brings southerly wind back to Arizona and monsoon moisture will gradually return.

C. James (our University's in-house meterologist)
 
#20 ·
Maadjurguer said:
crappola....this does not bode well for our AZ ski season...time to buy up some 155cm olin's and burn them for Ullr......oh yeah....this is happening....I'm already thinking that way......
I'm feeling as though you may be right, seems that we are due for a dry winter. At least we are in AZ. and when it doesn't snow there are always so many other cool things to do and we will be that much closer to a repeat of 05! I look forward to seeing the Inner Basin filled in like that again. It may be the Indian spirits angry with the courts decision on snowmaking? Oh well, Mother Nature is gonna do what she wants regardless.
 
#21 ·
raisingarizona said:
I'm feeling as though you may be right, seems that we are due for a dry winter. At least we are in AZ. and when it doesn't snow there are always so many other cool things to do and we will be that much closer to a repeat of 05! I look forward to seeing the Inner Basin filled in like that again. It may be the Indian spirits angry with the courts decision on snowmaking? Oh well, Mother Nature is gonna do what she wants regardless.
I prefer to think that we are overdue for a wet winter. Besides, what happens during the monsoon thunderstorm season has absolutely no correlation with precipation patterns the following winter.
 
#22 ·
rockman said:
I prefer to think that we are overdue for a wet winter. Besides, what happens during the monsoon thunderstorm season has absolutely no correlation with precipation patterns the following winter.
Just a feeling, I get em every year around this time, I'm not buying a pass this year tho for sure because of this inner voice. I always listen to it and it usually proves right, but I may be wrong, hopefully I am.:)
 
#23 ·
They are also seeing El Niño pop up early this year (and supposed to last through well into 2010) which tends to bode well for pulling the jet stream down farther south and bringing us a wetter winter than normal. Then again, you know how accurate long range forecasting can be. ;)
 
#25 ·
Evil Patrick said:
Get used to global warming and the drastic changes it brings.
I think the term 'global warming' is kind of a misnomer. When you say 'global warming' to others that don't beleive it exists, they tend to come back and say "well, it snowed 10 feet the other day so boo hoo... there is no global warming blah blah". One could say similar about the AZ winter the past 2 seasons. We have had above average snowfall 2 seasons in a row so a lot of people think that global warming is bull.

What I like to tell these folks is that we are having some sort of climate change. It is known that the temperature in the globe has warmed up by a few degrees over the last century but that is imperceptible to everyone. Weather systems and climates are drastically affected by very small changes which is why forecasting weather is such a difficult thing to do. As a result of this small increase in global temperatures (and ocean temperatures), the weather and climates are radically changing and are acting more and more out of their 'normal' and 'historical' distribution for what we think is typical for a particular region. No doubt the Southwest has seen this in terms of more extreme weather such as hotter summer and cooler, more wet winters in recent years. Other locations are definitely seeing the change more rapidly. The poles are a prime example of this... you can see glaciers retreating where they once stood for ages, tundra has been melting away at an alarming rate which feeds trapped CO2 in the atmosphere which in turn continues to raise the global temperatures (a very bad positive feedback loop which may be precipitating the point of no return).

All in all, I am a firm believer that we are screwing up the planet for most of the current animals and humans that live here but it doesn't matter. As George Carlin once said in one of my favorite bits: "The planet will be fine, it's the people that are f**ked!!!" Earth will go on being what it is and we will just have to get accustomed and adapt. At some point, it will probably do away with the human race for all we know.

Or better yet, for all we know, this may just be a natural increase in global temperatures that the Earth has always gone through and we haven't been around long enough to document it. I'd prefer to err on the side of caution and actually take initiative to stop blatant polution but that's my opinion. Remember, all of that oil deep in the ground was once on the surface as dead, decaying matter which absorbed plenty of carbon out of the atmosphere millions of years ago and made the planet what it is today and here we are burning it off and releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere... it only make sense that we are seeing these changes.

/rant
 
#26 ·
Evil Patrick said:
Get used to global warming and the drastic changes it brings.
Global warming is real but the long-term effect on precipation patterns in the southwest is not clear. Temperature yes. Some ski areas, esp in the eruopean Alps will see more precip fall as rain.

In regards to the AZ Snowbowl, it has a base at 9000' so all that reclaimed water will be falling as white stuff for decades to come:p
 
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