New! 2002 vs 04 Sea Otter times..Spt +5.5% vs Expt +10.3%- Mtbr.com
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  1. #1

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    New! 2002 vs 04 Sea Otter times..Spt +5.5% vs Expt +10.3%

    Well, after all the comments about the 2003 Sea Otter Sport riders having a very muddy track....leading to slower than usual times, I instead reworked my figures using the 2002 and 2004 times for both expert and sport 35-39.

    If you don't understand what this is about look further below in this post where I give you a copy of my orginal post about comparing the 2003 and 2004 times..

    Anyway, using the 2002 and 2004 Sport and Expert 35-39 times I come up with the following....

    Sport 35-39 times in 2004 versus 2002 are +5.48% or 4 min 47 seconds slower per lap.

    Expert 35-39 times in 04 versus 02 are +10.32% or 9 min 08 seconds slower per lap for a 2 lap slower time of + 18 min 16 seconds...

    So, as you can see, there is still quite a difference between the relative rate of slow-down in the expert class versus the sport class... Yes, less than the figures showed in my orginal post ( see below in this thread) comparing the 2003 and 2004 times, but still quite substantial and the cause of much consternation......Wouldn't you agree?

    Also, in my 2002 figures I included all the expert riders in picking out my 2nd quintile but had I excluded the 11 of 65 riders who only did one lap in 2002, then my differences would have been more pronounced....with the following results

    Expert 35-39 times in 04 versus 02 are +12.86% or 11 min 08 seconds slower per lap for a 2 lap slower time of 22 min 15 seconds..

    Even using the more conservative figures of Sport taking 5.48% longer compared with Expert taking 10.32% longer in the 2004 versus 2002 Sea Otter times, it still raises the question as to why the difference.

    About the only factor that anyone offered was that the sand was worse in the later PM races......and sand was not such a differential factor in the 2002 races...

    I'm still at a loss to explain why there was such a relatively larger percentage slow down in times in the 2004 expert 35-39 compared to the 2004 slow down in the sport 35-39.

    Perhaps someone will come up with some other reasons.....afternoon wind? etc..

    Now for those of you who did not read the first thread, here, below is that post...
    Which includes some of my methods for calculating the data from the various groups.
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    03 vs 04 Sea Otter times..Spt +3% vs Expt +20% ?

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    Just wondering why the times for the Expert riders were about 20% slower while the times for the Sport riders were only about 3% slower than the previous year.

    I know that the 2004 race was much longer than the 2003 race and I know that the Experts ride 2 laps versus one lap for the Sport riders, but why would that make the
    "percentage" increase in times so much greater for the Expert riders versus the Sport riders? Year over year.....

    Here is what I used for comparsion.....Not perfect but not all that bad for these calculations and the differences are so extreme in percent that it is hard to understand.

    For Sport I used the 35-39 group...... the 2nd decile in 2003 and 2004......meaning I did not use the top 10% of riders to eliminate abnormally fast guys...(who perhaps should be in expert) There were 183 riders in 2003 and 158 in 2004, so using the 2 decile gives a good sampling of serious riders.

    For Expert I used the 35-39 group....the 2nd quintile in 2003 and 2004... I used the 2nd quintile instead of the 2nd decile because there are not as many riders and I wanted a good average. There were 66 riders in 2003 and 35 in 2004.. (note, that drop in riders from 2003 to 2004 is interesting in itself)....

    Anyway the results were as follows...

    Sport 35-39 times went from 1:32:34 average (2nd decile) in 2003 to 1:35:21 in 2004 for a increase in time of +2 min 47 seconds or 3.01%

    Expert 35-39 times went from 2:42:24 average (2nd quintile) in 2003 to 3:15:14 in 2004 for a incease in time of +32 min 50 seconds OR +16 min 25 seconds PER LAP for an increase in time of 20.2%

    Discussion........20.2% increase versus 3.01% increase is huge.....

    I realize there was some very muddy conditions for early sport riders in 2003 but still the difference in percentage increase is so huge that I am still perplexed...

    I was not there......Is there some other obvious factor I am missing?
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    Just one last point.......Am I boring you with all these figures......Is there something wrong with my mind by wondering about all these things.....Perhaps I should just spend more time going over my data from last night's American Idol voting.

  2. #2
    Jed Peters
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    Is there some other obvious factor I am missing?
    Yes, the fact that they were two different courses. With two different sets of riders under two different sets of conditions.

    And I didn't even have to read your post!

    Get over it.

  3. #3

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    re-reading before posting replies

    Quote Originally Posted by Zonic Man
    And I didn't even have to read your post!
    .
    Obviously

  4. #4
    Derailleurless
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    How does this sound?

    Sport class races in a very crowded field, with the older class you're looking at starting behind around 500 to 600 other riders. Single track clogs up fast, so if a Sport racer isn't at the front, he's stuck in traffic. Probably many could have gone faster, but were constrained due to the crowded field. This crowding was supposedly much worse in previous years due to earlier single track, leaving little time for faster riders to sort themselves to the front of the group.

    Expert class races in a much less crowded field, riders are more evenly matched and pushing along at a good clip even when stuck single file. They are working closer to their real limits.

    The Sport class appears to have "speeded up more" this year because (1) they were given more room to sort in the early fireroad, allowing the faster riders in general to get ahead of the slower riders to form a more natural, less constrictive order, and (2) the riders in the pack are still riding at a somwhat constrained pace, meaning they're got higher reserves and are able to keep this "artificial" pace up for a longer period of time.

    The Expert class appears slower because their time is a more accurate reflection of the longer course.

    Fact or fiction or a little of both? You decide. Sounds good enough to me.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by f*nŠtik
    How does this sound?

    ...they were given more room to sort in the early fireroad,..
    Actually, the course was unchanged until just past Hurl Hill. There was no additional fireroad before the singletrack.
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  6. #6
    Nouveau Retrogrouch SuperModerator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chester
    ... Perhaps someone will come up with some other reasons.....afternoon wind? etc...
    The afternoon wind could be a factor. It is a headwind on the final climb and it could be blowing on both laps for the experts and not at all for the sports.
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