I can see the future............& it's FAT- Mtbr.com
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  1. #1
    All fat, all the time.
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    I can see the future............& it's FAT

    Here is a fun thread...for a change


    Post your best guesses at what the future will bring into the fatbike community.

    Giant Fat Trance
    Santa Cruz Fat Blur
    Fox Fat Forks
    Tubeless-ready and/or UST tires
    5.5" tires followed by 6" tires
    Tank tracks

    Should be a fun list to look back on in 5 years.

  2. #2
    N8R
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    A new category of fat bike optimized for exploring, not racing or speed. High ground clearance, short wheel base, and short chainstay's..... with 5" + fat tires.

  3. #3
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    Re: I can see the future............& it's FAT

    Hoverfat. No tires necessary.

  4. #4
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    Calling 120mm rims and 6" tires soon, true story write that down.

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  6. #6
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    +1 short wheel base

    But 6" wide tires? To each their own, but I need those like I need 160mm+ suspension for trail riding! Using every modern trick in the book (thin tire casing, carbon wheels, tubeless…), 5"+ tires still are going to be heavy, no?

  7. #7
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    Re: I can see the future............& it's FAT

    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    5"+ tires still are going to be heavy, no?
    No. Because hovertires.

  8. #8
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    Re: I can see the future............& it's FAT

    Quote Originally Posted by iscariot View Post
    No. Because hovertires.
    This "because" meme can't die soon enough.

  9. #9
    turtles make me hot
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    I'm all in for hovertires.
    I like turtles

  10. #10
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    Most mt bikes over $600 or so will probably go fat. Maybe not 4"+ but fatter than they are now to make it easier for entry riders to ride and enjoy. I don't think an additional pound or two will matter, these bikes are already tanks and the bike companies will probably save weight by touting the benefits of a rigid fork over a suspension fork. Marketing...

    All of the fork manufacturers will have options for these bikes so it's not a stretch to think that we'll see a good selection for the higher end.

    Full squish fat will be all over the place. Most likely not for the spandex XC crowd but otherwise I expect to see it in most other disciplines. There may not be too much in the Enduro/DH category because of the bounce factor though but I could see something like the RM Sherpa for these riders but with a 3-3.5" tire.

    Tubeless will become the norm. As the major tire manufacturers really get their heads into the game we will see new rubber compounds, or maybe silicone or something like that, to help keep the weight reasonable so that a ~5" tire isn't a brick.

  11. #11
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    Fat is an old idea that's come back into vogue. At some point the pendulum will swing back. I don't know what the future will be, but I hope it's not like the lumen race although it looks like it's heading that way.

    At some point the market will become saturated. Production of frames and parts will drop off. Only the biggest and best will remain in business. More stuff will be made/moved off shore to compete. Things will be made lighter and less durable. It will be more about bling than substance. My uneducated guess is these are the good old days.

    Of course I could be totally wrong

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    +1 short wheel base

    But 6" wide tires? To each their own, but I need those like I need 160mm+ suspension for trail riding! Using every modern trick in the book (thin tire casing, carbon wheels, tubeless…), 5"+ tires still are going to be heavy, no?
    We are talking future here why pee on my wheaties, come on man this is the lull time we need something to talk about let's not get technical +1 trillion on the hovertires

  13. #13
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    With all that volume you think the helium instead of air thing will finally take off.

    Tubeless will become the norm with tires and rims

    This fall/winter will be the turning point for fat, either more people buy and the new bikes and products continue, or everyone who wants one has one (more or less) and things level off and it remains a specialty market. Here in CT I think we are there, there were bike shops with fat bikes on the floor all winter. It has to get to a bike you ride more than just in snow for them to take off here (and everywhere south of here).

  14. #14
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    A million dollar fat bike? oh yea it's already here

    24K Gold Extreme Mountain Bike - The House of Solid Gold



    A you bun buy it conveniently with your PayPal account!

  15. #15
    is buachail foighneach me
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    Someone is going to figure out a way to increase the contact patch without increasing the static tire width. It's going to be either a rim that flexes under enough weight to lengthen the contact patch, or has semirigid walls that flare out under enough weight to widen the contact patch. A built in fold in the tire could be another possible solution.

  16. #16
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    Tubeless ready tires are here already, with various offerings from Vee Tire.
    The new Schwalbes will be available in a tubeless ready (Snakeskin version).
    Same thing with the new 4.8's from a Chinese manufacturer.

  17. #17
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    The future?

    4" will become the normal mtb size.

    People who like to ride around in circles and not look at scenery will have a wide range of full suspension choices. This will lead to the need for lower profile tyres to eliminate bounce, so expect 650B fat rims to maintain the diameter.

    There is a definite need for 6' tyres for those of us who like to ride over bogs (actually 8" too, but getting that into a format that's rideable may be difficult).

    Hosiery manufacturers will have to introduce larger sizes to cater for the leg muscles required to turn such wheels.

    Rohloff will still be about to introduce a 170mm hubgear.

    Sturmey-Archer will have expanded the range of their 170mm hub from 3 speed to 5 speed.

    Shimano will have a 18 speed hubgear, but because it can't use an input ratio of less than 1.9:1, all the extra gears are at the top end. This hub will be popular with those riders who regularly exceed 90mph on their commute.

    Hover tyres will have gone out of fashion because riders don't like the hassle of getting their bikes off the ceiling, and then they will be banned by the aviation authorities after an unfortunate incident between a fatty ridden by a porn star and a Jumbo full of nuns.

    17 speed cassettes will replace the 16 speed and more mechanics will lose the tips of their fingers to the razor thin cogs.

    and I will still be riding my Pugsley.

    Some of what I'd like to see:

    Drum brakes that bolt in place of disks.

    Full enclosure chaincases

    Full mudguards (fenders) that are quickly detachable.

    Reynolds stainless tubed frames.

    190mm hubgear from Shimano or S-A.

    A fat Big Dummy that breaks down into smaller parts for trail bivvies and longer trips.

    And of course, the 6" tyres mentioned previously.
    As little bike as possible, as silent as possible.
    Any bike, anywhere, anytime.
    Latitude: 57º36' Highlands, Scotland

  18. #18
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    I think most of the advances are going to be in tires. Cheaper, lighter, better performance, etc. With the advent of the Bucksaw and carbon Beargrease, I think that the "high-performance" fat bikes are already here if folks want them. I'm sure they'll keep improving the frames but it will be incremental after this.

    Otherwise it's going to be going after the low-end of the market. Pugsley isn't exactly a fancy bike and is still costs 2-3x what Joe Q Public would pay for one. If a big manufacturer could come in to the $600-800 range I think that would be big. Bikes Direct is already there in force but I still don't think they are reaching the person who walks into a shop looking for a bike but not sure what they want. The next thing for fat bikes would be to sell bikes to those people.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdundee View Post
    We are talking future here why pee on my wheaties, come on man this is the lull time we need something to talk about let's not get technical +1 trillion on the hovertires
    6" tires are fathomable for big dune riding and etc... but to keep the wheelbase reasonable and spin weight down, might want to use rims with a little less diameter- maybe even 24". Cross section of a supple, uniform thin sidewall tire should still take it up close to 29". And Endo like tread... "Sand rail"... Will need a wider BB so bigger "Q" factor... but I'd ride it in the sand!!

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Espen W View Post
    The new Schwalbes will be available in a tubeless ready (Snakeskin version).
    Same thing with the new 4.8's from a Chinese manufacturer.
    Are you just teasing us here? Spit it out man need more info

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ward View Post
    6" tires are fathomable for big dune riding and etc... but to keep the wheelbase reasonable and spin weight down, might want to use rims with a little less diameter- maybe even 24". Cross section of a supple, uniform thin sidewall tire should still take it up close to 29". And Endo like tread... "Sand rail"... Will need a wider BB so bigger "Q" factor... but I'd ride it in the sand!!
    I've heard from a reputable source in CO that such a beast is already on the drawing board.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Velobike View Post
    There is a definite need for 6' tyres for those of us who...
    ...loved the Flintstones?

    I know it was a typo, couldn't help myself.

    I can see the future............& it's FAT-flintstones.jpg
    Disclaimer: I run Regular Cycles (as of 2016). As a profiteer of the bicycle industry, I am not to be taken very seriously.

  23. #23
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    I think it'll be interesting to see if casual bike riders and roadies and folks who do other stuff in the winter will buy them. Right now it's pretty much mountain bikers, and that's a SMALL pie. Some folks do love riding their fatties in the summertime but you're not going to sell Joe Public on that idea IMO.

    Honestly I think we're probably at or close to peak sales now. That's not to say we won't see a ton of new products and falling prices/rising quality just from manufacturers jumping on the bandwagon later.

    It's easy to get sucked into extrapolating the trend (fatbike sales are doubling every year!) but at some point you've gotta find customers outside of the hardcore folks who will replace bikes or parts annually - and I don't really see that happening. I'd like to be wrong, though!

    -Walt

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Espen W View Post
    Tubeless ready tires are here already, with various offerings from Vee Tire.
    The new Schwalbes will be available in a tubeless ready (Snakeskin version).
    Same thing with the new 4.8's from a Chinese manufacturer.
    Which chinese manufacturer is coming out with 4.8's?

    And I don't mean to rain on mtbr fatbike's parade but I kinda liked having an obscure bike!

  25. #25
    Laramie, Wyoming
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    Tubeless carbon rims that work and are available would be a great idea.

  26. #26
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    I have these now. They're a great idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by alphazz View Post
    Tubeless carbon rims that work and are available would be a great idea.

  27. #27
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    I am looking forward to advancements in tire and rim technologies - Namely:

    <ul><li>The ability to setup rims to run tubeless without using packing foam or other such MacGyver tricks.</li><li>The ability to fully seat a tire of choice on a fatty rim on the first attempt - even in the field; w/o the MacGyver tricks.</li></ul>

    But most of all - I'd be happier with more TIME to ride.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew Diller View Post
    ...loved the Flintstones?

    I know it was a typo, couldn't help myself.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	flintstones.jpg 
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ID:	889369
    Actually, now that you mention it...
    As little bike as possible, as silent as possible.
    Any bike, anywhere, anytime.
    Latitude: 57º36' Highlands, Scotland

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Velobike View Post
    Actually, now that you mention it...
    That big rotocasting machine I made six months ago?

    Can you guess why I made it so big?



    I want to make some sort of Godzilla fat bike. One that I would ride to break trail. But the right sized tires available in the form of performance ATV tires are so damn heavy and meant for high torque.

    I have a modest amount of experience with making things out of silicone rubber, and accumulating more knowledge with each CFRP test. The most recent discovery I made with partially cured silicone had some interesting implications for secondary bonding. I have spent some time thinking of the nuts and bolts of making tires with that in mind, but the solution I've thought up involves committing to tubular tire design - no beads involved.

    Don't see how that last constraint would be much of a problem, considering there would be no sane competitors in existence.

    I was also thinking of how many customers there might be for such a thing. I could count them on one hand, if even that much.

    So, to get some truly clown sized rubber built for a currently nonexistent frame, you prepared to spend like half a bike's worth of money on ONE tire? Yeah. Even when trying to be cheap. And the bike-ish handling nature of this... thing would be so far gone from a bicycle as to warrant a relabeling of: DD-HPV or Dual Drum Human Powered Vehicle. Think about it - you could not have anything resembling a 70 degree HT angle, it would handle similar to rallying in a Ford Explorer. You'd need a 90 degree HT angle and a steering parallelogram, a drivetrain jackshaft - bonkers, wild, wacky, but it could work - and cost a mint.

    Unfortunately, pretty far down on my priority list. Head in the clouds, feet on the ground.

    But I have the will to make you one.

    ...in like three years, after I solved many problems.
    Disclaimer: I run Regular Cycles (as of 2016). As a profiteer of the bicycle industry, I am not to be taken very seriously.

  30. #30
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    Race fatbikes with 26x3.9 rubber 71/73 degree angles with 150 mm stems 4" below saddle heights 21" wide 5 degree flat bars. large diameter stiff aluminum frames........
    Oh that's right we are riding on snow.... nevermind

    How about parts in stock at your lbs.

  31. #31
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    In the year 2000...

    Justin Beiber will be spotted riding a surly ice cream truck down Venice Beach causing a shortage of 190mm rear spaced frames when every teenage girl demands one for their sweet 16. This pop/counter culture supernova combined with the only remaining option of worthlessly obsolete 170mm frames will break the soul of all fatbike forum users. They (we?) will have no choice but to ride on the last remaining island of unmolested, non-image conscious, authentically pure bike culture; the fixie.

    ...oh wait...

  32. #32
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    The future of Fat? Say 5 years out?

    Tubeless set-ups will be worked out to user satisfaction.

    Carbon rims will become commonplace.

    The 4" tire will remain the norm. Small gains in increasing the contact patch will found in advancements in tire and rim designs. Tire construction quality will improve without much change in price.

    The advent of FS will follow the MB trend...greater and greater travel...into absurdity for practical usage by the exploration nature enjoying rider.

    Surly will no longer offer an offset frame.

  33. #33
    All fat, all the time.
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    I think we're going to see see tires like this....http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LN8VwD0V4RE

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    I have these now. They're a great idea.
    Sweet, I paid for mine months ago because I thought they might be nice. Since when is the correct business model, Pay for them now and we'll make them whenever and don't expect any communication from us until you get your rims?
    Last edited by alphazz; 04-30-2014 at 08:42 AM.

  35. #35
    one chain loop
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    100mm BB shell width will be the DH standard while the fat crowd will create another wider/bigger shell to accommodate wider hubs, rims and tires.

    it won't be english threading for sure.
    everything sucks but my vacuum cleaner.

  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shark View Post
    I think we're going to see see tires like this....http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LN8VwD0V4RE
    Already can. ERW - Airless Bicycle Tires - YouTube

    Can see them packing up with mud, snow & sand...so I'll pass.

    How do you adjust for surface conditions and weight?

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walt View Post
    I think it'll be interesting to see if casual bike riders and roadies and folks who do other stuff in the winter will buy them. Right now it's pretty much mountain bikers, and that's a SMALL pie. Some folks do love riding their fatties in the summertime but you're not going to sell Joe Public on that idea IMO.

    Honestly I think we're probably at or close to peak sales now. That's not to say we won't see a ton of new products and falling prices/rising quality just from manufacturers jumping on the bandwagon later.

    It's easy to get sucked into extrapolating the trend (fatbike sales are doubling every year!) but at some point you've gotta find customers outside of the hardcore folks who will replace bikes or parts annually - and I don't really see that happening. I'd like to be wrong, though!

    -Walt
    I agree with this... Mostly.
    The market on Long Island is VERY different from the rest of the country. When the 190mm frames became available, there was a big wave of fat bikes sold.
    I build wheels for a shop the sells fatbikes exclusively. I was BUSY. It got a little quiet and now there's another wave of bikes being sold. My theory on this is people are seeing the first wave of bikes out in the wild and want their own.
    Everywhere I go with mine, people want to see it, ask about it, try it, feel the weight...
    The most interesting group I'm constantly encountering is seniors. They always want to know if it will roll on sand and they seem very interested when I tell them it will. Old guys in the state park that say they don't ride trails any more love the idea of crawling with almost unlimited traction.
    Roadies ALWAYS ask if my 907 is a Pugsly... Guess that's the one name they hear all the time. Once I explain that there are many different types of fat bikes, they get more interested and start saying they want one.
    Last week I saw two girls in their twenties riding off brand fatties on the trails. Right there, I knew this was bigger than I thought.
    Lots of people on Long Island will buy them and ride them a couple of times and then they'll lay in the garage til the end of time, but they will buy fat bikes whereas no other bike would have captured their interest enough.
    I like turtles

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYrr496 View Post

    The most interesting group I'm constantly encountering is seniors.
    Yeah...as expressed before, fatties have a inherent attraction...take it from a self proclaimed...naturally aged...expert!

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sand Rat View Post
    The future of Fat? Say 5 years out?...

    Surly will no longer offer an offset frame.
    ... except for their 8" tyre model, the Swamp Truck.
    As little bike as possible, as silent as possible.
    Any bike, anywhere, anytime.
    Latitude: 57º36' Highlands, Scotland

  40. #40
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    I was shocked how fatbikes have grown ( no pun intended : ) since I've been away from the forum. The most important advance for me is tires. I remember when endo was the only tire Surly sold. Now there's carbon fiber rims and Surly doesn't sell LM. Times are a changin...

    With all the new fatbikes and components there seems to me a good choice for everyone. How much better can it get ? Maybe somewhat better but you usually give something to get something. Want light ? OK, but you might have to give up bomb proof. No matter what the future holds I'll still be riding my tweaked out Pugs rolling on a Rohloff, LM DH rims and Moose tubes ( 964g each : )

    Just a side note. After spending almost two years with my 15 degree stem ( up ) I inverted it yesterday. I lowered my saddle a hair and moved it slightly forward. It's like a whole new bike and it didn't cost anything. My center of gravity and wind resistance has been lowered. The cock pit is tighter giving more control for climbing, descending, or flat out hauling ass. Quite a surprise peddling now pushed me up taking almost all the pressure off the saddle. My hands are more neutral than before. The comfort level while riding is honestly far better then with my stem up.

    My point is that I think some people don't fully explore and examine the full potential of the bike they have. Once you've done that it's fine to upgrade if your needs/expectations haven't been met. I'm lucky because mine have but only after years of tweaking to gain the most synergy between my frame and components. No matter where fatbikes go I'll still be riding my Pugs. There's something to be said for keeping an old friend you know so well instead of always looking for a new kid on the block.

    ...and yes that's a sock

  41. #41
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    "Hover tirs"?!?

    Quote Originally Posted by NYrr496 View Post
    I'm all in for hovertires.

    Just set up (good and TIGHT!) for tubeless and run helium vs. air... not "hovering" but sure would be light!

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