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  1. #1
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    The fat bike bubble has burst

    Let me preface this statement by saying I love my fatbike and where and when it allows me to ride. I will have a fatty in my quiver indefinitely.


    So, to the story:

    I just got back from a tough week at Eurobike where I had many great conversations with many friends and business associates....and answered many questions for all the 'experts' who were there as well. One of the takeaways is that for the industry fat bikes are dead and many are being cancelled by their makers. No sales means no production.

    I just wanted to pass this along for those of you who are considering a new fatty purchase in the next months. If you see one you like now, go for it and don't wait for the new version.....cuz depending on the brand there may not be a new version!

    I am not here to argue about bandwagon jumping and me too bikes, just wanted to offer fellow fat riders a heads up that there are a few bikes out there today, which will not be out there tomorrow, so to speak. If you want a specific bike, go get it now.

    peace.

  2. #2
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    Not the case for Canyon atleast, 2017 spec and colours are on the german site.

    Some brands haven't exactly hit the nail on the head when it comes to what customers want in their fatbike so some not selling very well doesn't come as a surprise.

  3. #3
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    Fat bikes aren't dead, the industry is correcting itself. Naturally some makes and models will go by the wayside, but that is to be expected when everybody and their brother jumped into that in a very short time. But to say their "dead" seems very excessive to me.

  4. #4
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    You actually seem like you're not a troll... and I'll bet you know far far more about the industry than I.
    I suspect, though, that if you had access to the raw data what we have a decreased growth curve for total fatbike sales, with some models (as said above) doing poorly. I doubt the industry as a whole is actually dropping.... don't know that but I do know that the fatbike community continues to pull in new riders all the time.... /shrug.
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  5. #5
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    As long as the whole 650B/B+ lovefest is the next *victim*, I'm good with it.

    Yes, too many jumped in too fast, trying to not be the anti 29er guy with egg on their face, as happened a half dozen years ago.

    Silly brands, be good at what you're good at, be passionate about what you're bringing to market that's new, and be modest in your numbers.

    Its not that hard, unless you're just a me too, don't want to miss the band wagon brand with no original thoughts of your own.....
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  6. #6
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    Case in point: Why has the Blackborrow been dropped from the Salsa lineup?

    On less bike to fit the 2XL for those that desire them. And if I recall the stats correctly, one might have trouble fitting a Bud/Lou sized tire on 100mm rims on the rest of their line-up.

    Ghost testing a new and improved replacement version Somewhere?
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by litespeedaddict View Post
    Fat bikes aren't dead, the industry is correcting itself. Naturally some makes and models will go by the wayside, but that is to be expected when everybody and their brother jumped into that in a very short time. But to say their "dead" seems very excessive to me.
    ^^This. I don't see the major players dropping fat bikes from their line up.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    As long as the whole 650B/B+ lovefest is the next *victim*, I'm good with it.
    What do you have against plus bikes? Or are you just being a curmudgeon?


    Its not that hard, unless you're just a me too, don't want to miss the band wagon brand with no original thoughts of your own.....
    You either lead, follow or fall behind. And that just doesn't apply to bike industry either.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SADDLE TRAMP View Post
    Case in point: Why has the Blackborrow been dropped from the Salsa lineup?
    Because they already have 3 other fatbikes in their line up?

  10. #10
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    I'm not sure dead as much as no guarantee that new generation road bikers who've not been a mountain biker is buying one.

    Our IMBA chapter area has buyers of early fat bike models more into getting new trail and AM bikes for our new generations of trails than replacing those bikes. I'm seeing for more Trek Stache plus models than I'd expected to see earlier. A new regular at my home trailhead says it worked about as well as his Pugsly and unlike the Pugsly it's a lot of fun in summer.

    This really looks more like an adjustment. Last year there were few past year models right now. This year I see some buying 2017 models but my wife and I are pleased we got a super deal on a leftover 2016.

    There was a time when I was shaking my head over the amount of freeride and DH stuff I saw in dealer inventory. Maybe we have an adjustment like that. I don't know much about triathlon but one of our trail building sponsor shops hinted fat bikes might be like that where they saw a peak but not death.

    I'm sure it feels like death to someone in the industry who has some job uncertainty over lower sales. It might feel like death to some craigslist sellers I saw when we just bought a fat bike. They were asking more for hardly used 2016 bikes than new ones still at shops.

  11. #11
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    You can take my statement for what it is....my impression of things after talking about it with the guys who decide what you all will be riding in the coming years.

    Maybe not dead at this very second, but with no (extremely limited) development of new / improved components ( think rims, tires, cranks, etc...) it's just a matter of time, I mean who buys a brand new bike with 6 year old parts? not me.

    anyway, I agree with many of the points above, certainly a strong correction of the market is at play, perhaps more. of course there are a few exceptions...but only a few sadly.

    as I said before, if you got your eye on something specific, go get it soon!

  12. #12
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    When it all shakes out. Hopefully people are more informed about what makes a fun fat bike. The cream will rise to the top. And I wish tires will get cheaper

  13. #13
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    Alias is not lying.

    The brother of the LBS owner is a rep for a certain parts company and reported that there was almost no new Fatbike anything at Eurobike 2016.

    Unlike in years past where seemingly EVERYTHING was Fatbike, this year everything was e-bike.

    If the industry **thinks** a product category is dying, who's going to put money into new development?

  14. #14
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    Last year was pretty telling in terms of demand. Locally just about all shops said demand had flattened out over the previous year or decreased now that 10+ shops in town carry fat bikes. Some shops still have demo bikes from last winter in inventory.

    If you are a first time buyer or looking to upgrade there are lot's of people selling so great used deals to be had.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by vid1900 View Post
    If the industry **thinks** a product category is dying, who's going to put money into new development?
    Who says there needs to be new development? The 2013 Specialized Fatboy is the same as the 2017 Fatboy. Only difference is new colors, a change in components and a guard added to the chainstay on the drive side. Otherwise it's still the same exact frame today as it was in 2013.

    Other than the full suspension FB offerings by some, what other developments do you think are necessary?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by SADDLE TRAMP View Post
    Case in point: Why has the Blackborrow been dropped from the Salsa lineup?

    On less bike to fit the 2XL for those that desire them. And if I recall the stats correctly, one might have trouble fitting a Bud/Lou sized tire on 100mm rims on the rest of their line-up.

    Ghost testing a new and improved replacement version Somewhere?
    Because the Blackborow is being renamed the Mukluk. Salsa and Surly both are consolidating the number of models they offer. They even had staffing shakeups associated with that.

    I won't say the bubble has burst. Lots of people still want fatbikes. But the bike industry is based on trends. They got bored of the fatbike "trend" because saturation of a niche market meant that everybody was losing sales to the other guy. I recently heard that there are more fatbikes sitting on sales floors than there are in owners' hands. Why would the industry release even more new products when this is the case? We'll see what happens after that inventory situation gets corrected.

    And yeah, the industry has decided on the next "hot" trend. It will be hot for a few years. Especially since it's by its nature such a high dollar item, demand will be lower. Then it won't be hot anymore, and the industry will find the next "hot" trend. It won't go away, just like fatbikes won't go away. But there will be model consolidation. Some brands might stop selling certain bikes because their models never sold well enough to justify their inclusion in the lineup.

  17. #17
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    Industry changes spacings and parts every year: "New standards are ruining my life!"

    Industry doesn't make a bunch of new parts one year: "Wheres all the new stuff? This market is dead!"

  18. #18
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    some of the obsolete bikes should be axed or replaced...

    I'm sure last years warm winter didn't help fat bike sales
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
    What do you have against plus bikes? Or are you just being a curmudgeon?
    I'm a curmudgeon, it's true.

    However, I find the value added of 29 to be totally worth while. So cutting it in half by going to 650Blech makes no sense as far as I'm concerned.

    So when 29+ was launched by Surly, and everyone sat there, just waiting.........?

    "OMG B+ is the best thing since sliced bread, everyone and their Mom better get on the *brand* wagon so we don't miss the trendy oops train again" filled the void.

    Yawn.

    29+ improved on 29. Going backwards just because everyone else is, is simply stupid marketing tripe.
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    I'm a curmudgeon, it's true.

    However, I find the value added of 29 to be totally worth while. So cutting it in half by going to 650Blech makes no sense as far as I'm concerned.

    So when 29+ was launched by Surly, and everyone sat there, just waiting.........?

    "OMG B+ is the best thing since sliced bread, everyone and their Mom better get on the *brand* wagon so we don't miss the trendy oops train again" filled the void.

    Yawn.

    29+ improved on 29. Going backwards just because everyone else is, is simply stupid marketing tripe.
    Well...27.5+ is almost equal diameter as a 29er but with better traction and it works well for some people.

    Last time I tried a 29+ (Trek Stache) I was not impressed by the handling of the bike so I would never own one. I'm sure I'm not the only with that thinking.

    But hey...that's why we have choices and I think having choices is a good thing.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
    The 2013 Specialized Fatboy is the same as the 2017 Fatboy. Only difference is new colors, a change in components and a guard added to the chainstay on the drive side. Otherwise it's still the same exact frame today as it was in 2013.
    No, alloy Fatboy have a new frameset: 197x12 through-axle rear instead of 190 QR, 150x15 through-axle front instead of 135 QR, internal cable routing and no rack mounts.
    Good old frame is only available for Fatboy SE.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by grisha View Post
    No, alloy Fatboy have a new frameset: 197x12 through-axle rear instead of 190 QR, 150x15 through-axle front instead of 135 QR, internal cable routing and no rack mounts.
    Good old frame is only available for Fatboy SE.
    By golly you're right. I missed that. Small upgrade though over the previous models. Nothing earth shattering in the fat bike world that wasn't already being done by others.

  23. #23
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    Ehh, 29+ wheels and tires are HUGE. I'm 188cm tall (6'-2") and my bike is still on the edge of stupid. 27.5+ is basically the correct size for average to small people.

    I figured fat bikes would trend out, but really, what are we missing in the fat bike world that makes us so scared of never getting it? Will every carbon frame go missing? Will every wheel maker back out? I doubt it.

    I mean, fixed gears went 'over' a decade ago and it's still easy to buy a great one.
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  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by SADDLE TRAMP View Post
    Case in point: Why has the Blackborrow been dropped from the Salsa lineup?

    On less bike to fit the 2XL for those that desire them. And if I recall the stats correctly, one might have trouble fitting a Bud/Lou sized tire on 100mm rims on the rest of their line-up.

    Ghost testing a new and improved replacement version Somewhere?
    Because the new Mukluk can take giant tires. They combined the bikes

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post

    Other than the full suspension FB offerings by some, what other developments do you think are necessary?
    If I knew, I guess I'd be applying for a patent right now.

    -

    Like Apple used to say "We don't ask the market what they want; we tell the market what they need"

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
    Well...27.5+ is almost equal diameter as a 29er but with better traction and it works well for some people. choices is a good thing.
    Cool, so heavier than a 29er wheel and tire, but rides like one.

    Sounds like a win.....

    Choices are great, until you have a confused consumer trying to buy a bike, who just locks up with choice overload. Then it's just an exercise in futility.

    See, Gravel grinder vs Cyclocross if you need an example. Or Hybrid vs performance hybrid, vs hybrid with suspension, vs performance hybrid with suspension. Perhaps toss in Endurance road vs performance road for a really good choice based glazed expression.

    Or, build a roadie with enough clearance for a fatter than 23, add a few rack and fender mounts (yeah, your snobby friends will tease you, I know) and leave enough steerer for folks to choose how much they want left on vs cut off, and viola, you just removed half the excess inventory from your sales floor for road bikes.

    I know, let's do a different wheel size for each frame size, that's make things better for sure!

    "Choice is good", is great mantra, until you have so many that they overlap pointlessly. Or, until it stymies product development because manufacturers can't figure out which rim or tire to work with, and which one to ignore.
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  27. #27
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    I haven't seen one on the trails since a couple last winter, mid fat is the new fat around here. And I live up the road from Borealis.

    Fat bikes are probably the most popular bike to convert to an ebike for those who ride them offroad, the manufacturers are missing out on a potential market. The "go anywhere" aspect works really well with a motor strapped on.


  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post

    "Choice is good", is great mantra, until you have so many that they overlap pointlessly. Or, until it stymies product development because manufacturers can't figure out which rim or tire to work with, and which one to ignore.
    I know things are tough in the bicycle shops, as I also work in one. I have a few observations on this "bubble bursting" and a comment which is a response to your quote above, Mendon.

    We're discussing fat bikes here, but Mendon can confirm, as the others with industry ties, that the whole of the cycling business, all niches and types of bikes, are not doing all that great. I hear a lot of negative numbers being tossed around, but most dealers/shop guys I have spoken with say they are 20% or more down in sales from last year.

    Fat bikes have also been saturated in the marketplace. That much cannot be denied.

    So, with a confirmed drop in sales overall, a poor Winter in many parts of the country last year, and an over supply of fat bikes, it isn't any wonder that Eurobike was down on the category. I would have guessed the same myself just looking at the evidence I get to see.

    Many will drop out of the fat bike market? Well, maybe they will, because of lowered sales expectations and having to cut back on the fringe products that are not core models for their lines. Fat bikes are not core models for most bicycle companies. That also seems fairly obvious.

    The market probably will continue on and offer fat bikes into the future. The core brands in the category will benefit, and there will be less choices, which should please a few curmudgeons out there.

    Anyway.... Mendon, I think your statement which I have quoted isn't so much a problem with what is offered, but how it is sold at retail. There are various reasons for that, but my point is that I feel having too many choices is a challenge a good salesman can deal with easily. I'll just leave it at that.
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  29. #29
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    I hear ya Ted. That said, I sell so few bikes, I'm not coming at it from a "what sells" POV.

    I still feel there's too much of the "we're not going to be left behind like we did with 29ers" thing going on.

    Not every brand, needs to have every bike.

    Focus on what you excel at, and if it seems, after several years, that your core customers are clamoring for something you don't offer? Then look into it.

    If everyone's doing nothing but trying to be first, and not bothering to ask "should we build this, really" the door gets clogged, and nothing good comes from that for anyone except sales floor deal shoppers....
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  30. #30
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    Figures, I find a style of bike that I like and its immediately out of style and dead.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by grisha View Post
    No, alloy Fatboy have a new frameset: 197x12 through-axle rear instead of 190 QR, 150x15 through-axle front instead of 135 QR, internal cable routing and no rack mounts.
    Good old frame is only available for Fatboy SE.
    You forgot the most important upgrade- Threaded Bottom Bracket!!! After messing around with creaking BB's, and having to bond them in place and/or replace them with pseudo threaded solutions, I definitely will only be going the threaded route in the future.

    Looks like the '17 Mukluk also has a threaded BB. Hopefully Pressfit is dead!
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  32. #32
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  33. #33
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    Yet Trek have apparently had a lot of success with their fat bikes and this year have their widest range of fat bikes yet with the addition of both carbon and aluminium full suspension fat bikes to join their existing range. I think the market is going to settle down now as it can't continue such a rapid expansion and I'm sure some companies will move onto something else if they've not had much success with them but I think they've carved their niche and they'll keep it.

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  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
    The 2013 Specialized Fatboy is the same as the 2017 Fatboy. ...
    Holly Molly. Has Specialized really been on this bandwagon for four whole years already?! Time really does fly when you get older. To me, a guy who prioritizes bikes and still spends most of his discretionary funds on them, this actually might point out where the problem lies:

    Quote Originally Posted by Guitar Ted View Post
    ... the whole of the cycling business, all niches and types of bikes, are not doing all that great. I hear a lot of negative numbers being tossed around, but most dealers/shop guys I have spoken with say they are 20% or more down in sales from last year.
    I sort of quit paying regular attention to fat bikes after a while, but mostly it was when and because all the major brands started jumping in and trying to manipulate the market by inventing new standards left and right. I made a conscious decision that my family and I were going to have to be content with our several "old-school" 170/135mm, quick release, 80mm suspension-corrected, 1 1/8" steerer, threaded bottom-bracket, etc. bikes for a long, long time, because I didn't want to be a guinea pig. And honestly, since we mostly use them as true snow bikes, they really could work indefinitely.

    Meanwhile, like most here, fat bikes also informed me that I'd never ever again spend money on a mountain bike that couldn't fit at least 3" wide tires, even for summer use. From the moment Plus happened, I was a believer. Yet, even with the desire and money burning a hole in my pocket, here I sit on the sidelines, making due with skinny little 2.8" tires and the frame I have, waiting until standards settle down before I'll ever be inclined to spend my hard-earned money.

    While the "fashion" and the "next new thing" marketing approach might have worked for a while, or appeal to some people, it easily has the opposite-of-intended effect on me. I'd be more inclined to spend money if it weren't for all the niches and trends, and I can't believe I'm alone, either. Sad to hear, but I'm not surprised at all that sales are down.

    I wonder if the "FAT BIKES" link in the top banner of the MTBR forum page is going to be replaced by one that says "BOOST."
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  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamkeith View Post
    Yet, even with the desire and money burning a hole in my pocket, here I sit on the sidelines, making due with skinny little 2.8" tires and the frame I have, waiting until standards settle down before I'll ever be inclined to spend my hard-earned money.
    Nothing wrong with that approach. There is another reason to hold off on the newest thing: affluenza.

    Once you have that super great thing, one tendency people have is that nothing else will do from then on. Case in point, I had a rare privilege in growing up as the son of a loud speaker engineer. I always had good speakers, for free, some of the best in the world if you're really interested in that kind of audiophile crap. Everywhere else I went, speakers sounded like crap to me. I had to learn to not be put off by lesser drivers, and to just enjoy music anyway and chill the @#$* out about purity and optimization.

    Back to the bikes world, tubeless (and tubeless fat) is my bit of affluenza that I'm intentionally avoiding. I've seen that it can work. I know the ride is better. I get the physics. But until everything is exhaustively sorted out and very common, I'd rather wait. Because once I make the change, I'm never gonna want to go back.
    Disclaimer: I run Regular Cycles (as of 2016). As a profiteer of the bicycle industry, I am not to be taken very seriously.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew Diller View Post
    some of the best in the world if you're really interested in that kind of audiophile crap.

    Back to the bikes world, tubeless (and tubeless fat) is my bit of affluenza that I'm intentionally avoiding.
    That's the problem with audiophiles.

    Everyone else is trying to go tubeless, and audiophiles want them back....

  37. #37
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    It spiked/peaked I'm sure, now it's getting back down to it's "normal" popularity.....

    Still better now than 2 tire choices and a maverick SC32.

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by vid1900 View Post
    That's the problem with audiophiles.

    Everyone else is trying to go tubeless, and audiophiles want them back....
    Ha, walked right into that.

    Nice one.
    Disclaimer: I run Regular Cycles (as of 2016). As a profiteer of the bicycle industry, I am not to be taken very seriously.

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnMcL7 View Post
    Yet Trek have apparently had a lot of success with their fat bikes and this year have their widest range of fat bikes yet with the addition of both carbon and aluminium full suspension fat bikes to join their existing range. I think the market is going to settle down now as it can't continue such a rapid expansion and I'm sure some companies will move onto something else if they've not had much success with them but I think they've carved their niche and they'll keep it.

    John
    Yeah re Trek. Here's my friend trail builder Chad and the new bikes. It was fun knowing the products and this video would be coming. I'm glad more are using those 27.5 fat rims. Fine if the bubble burst but things are hardly dead.


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    I haven't posted on here in a year, but that made me laugh.

  41. #41
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    such a cool video. impressed by riding skills and trails. but what stood out the most to me is how skinny the rider is: I really need to lose weight pronto. i would love to be that thin again.


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  42. #42
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    We are heading in to an ice age so get your fatbikes before it is too late.
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  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    I hear ya Ted. That said, I sell so few bikes, I'm not coming at it from a "what sells" POV.

    I still feel there's too much of the "we're not going to be left behind like we did with 29ers" thing going on.

    Not every brand, needs to have every bike.

    Focus on what you excel at, and if it seems, after several years, that your core customers are clamoring for something you don't offer? Then look into it.

    If everyone's doing nothing but trying to be first, and not bothering to ask "should we build this, really" the door gets clogged, and nothing good comes from that for anyone except sales floor deal shoppers....
    For sure-What happened with 29"ers is driving much of what we see in "trends" these days, but there is one more thing. The thing I think really is driving all the "different standards" and making brands afraid of not covering every trend.

    The market place for bicycles is shrinking.

    As you know, the market has flatlined or it has actually shrunk for several years, maybe over a decade now, and that is making every piece of the pie more difficult to obtain for any brand.

    So you get "innovations" which can be marketed as "better". You get brands trumpeting the latest trends so they can drum up interest in "the new" and hopefully be the ones that capitalize on a trend like 29"ers. (Which probably will never happen again for decades if ever)

    So, ultimately the bicycling industry either needs to contract, (which we see as mergers now or potentially bankruptcies), or there needs to be an expansion of interested consumers. Until either happens I think we're going to continue to see the goofy, desperate actions of a flailing industry.
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    key is overall sales growth or lack thereof. it is forcing companies to feeding frenzy over niches. just competition. if it continues there will be fewer and fewer bike companies and shops as the market settles. or smaller nimble companies that don't make a lot of money.


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    Quote Originally Posted by cjsb View Post
    such a cool video. impressed by riding skills and trails. but what stood out the most to me is how skinny the rider is: I really need to lose weight pronto. i would love to be that thin again.
    Chad tests Trek prototypes but his main gig is being one of the top trail builders in the US. He gets a lot of off bike and outside of mini ex time. He'll make you just as humble if it's hand tools.

    Being thin is not that hard. I was a fat kid. I'm getting close to age 60 and size 32 pants fall off. Keep busy and eat well. Stay away from commercial food kitchens. My wife and I are far from gym or fitness types but haven't joined the obesity epidemic by just keeping busy and having a good diet.

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by GiantTurd View Post
    LOL, just saw a TV segment on how they have been wrong about Global Warming, but now studies show we are approaching a rapid cooling era, maybe even a new Ice Age and we need to ramp up our efforts to prevent it. Can't make this stuff up. I have 4 Fatties in the garage and they aren't going anywhere.

    Mendon, I tried to like 29+ but I hate it, feel like it can't corner and requires way too much effort to hold a line in all of tight twisty VA single track, FYI - don't like 27.5+ either.
    You will be an ice warrior on the frozen tundra.
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    First, I've got to say that's a cool video. I'm not a fan of Trek or of FS fat bikes, but great job with the video Trek!

    I don't see this as a bubble bursting, it's just the normal cycle of consumer goods. New product appears, usually from a couple of smaller companies. Starts to get interest. Big companies jump in and the numbers and options increase dramatically as all the people who don't have one want one and buy one ASAP. Then it slows as most of the people already have one, and only upgrade every couple of years.

    The same cycle happens with pretty much every new product.

  48. #48
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    I don't mind the bubble bursting, just bought 4th fat bike from a factory outlet sale to our household Although me too was quite sure that all the other type of bikes will vanish and all that is left in the end is the fat bikes, I guess that I and the industry were wrong?

  49. #49
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    Fads - an intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, especially one that is short-lived and without basis in the object's qualities; a craze (Prof Google)

    The best thing about fads in biking is that new ideas/hardware get vetted by the early adopters and eventually made great for the late adopters. This funds the next cycle making things more refined and better yet again. FB's for example will always be the only option for snow and sand and the options and refinement in a few short years is amazing.

    The worst thing about fads is that many new standards get created and dropped leaving many folks with obsoleted hardware with marginal gain. Thank you early adopters.

    It is a love hate relationship and not limited to the biking industry. Nobody requires anybody to buy a new bike or bling thing so the whining has to stop. Ride what you got till you break it and then hope you can find a replacement without having to buy a whole new set up. I buy a new bike about every 10years and each time almost nothing will work with the new standards so it is all new. I am ok with that and absolutely love my new HD3 after hanging up my GF HT from circa 2005.
    Cheers

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    I don't know anything about the bike industry but round these parts somebody is selling some bikes.

    Single track trails in Minneapolis have triple the number of fatties I see today compared to last summer. (and there's very little snow here today)

    And the number people riding high end hard tails and FS is staggering to me. I was doing trail work last week so I got a bird's eye view.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

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  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_G View Post
    I don't know anything about the bike industry but round these parts somebody is selling some bikes.

    Single track trails in Minneapolis have triple the number of fatties I see today compared to last summer. (and there's very little snow here today)

    And the number people riding high end hard tails and FS is staggering to me. I was doing trail work last week so I got a bird's eye view.
    IMBA chapter data show general area and mine as shining stars. One of our bike shop sponsors told me the year has not been great overall but thanks to us their MTB sales are up 12%. For 2015 our region about doubled IMBA's growth, and our chapter was well ahead of that. We're nearing 300% more contributing members in just a few years. The relatively small number of stalwarts we have made MTB scenes where it was a few freaks years ago. We've finished our 4th summer of having kids MTB lesson programs. A third lesson program started. Our biggest lesson program has 20-30 kids taking MTB lessons twice a week all summer long.

    Our area leadership considers any area not having kids MTB lessons foolish. Parents drop their kids off. They dust off their bikes from college. Weeks to a year later mom and dad have new bikes too. Quite a few are fat bikes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew Diller View Post
    Nothing wrong with that approach. There is another reason to hold off on the newest thing: affluenza.

    Once you have that super great thing, one tendency people have is that nothing else will do from then on. Case in point, I had a rare privilege in growing up as the son of a loud speaker engineer. I always had good speakers, for free, some of the best in the world if you're really interested in that kind of audiophile crap. Everywhere else I went, speakers sounded like crap to me. I had to learn to not be put off by lesser drivers, and to just enjoy music anyway and chill the @#$* out about purity and optimization.

    Back to the bikes world, tubeless (and tubeless fat) is my bit of affluenza that I'm intentionally avoiding. I've seen that it can work. I know the ride is better. I get the physics. But until everything is exhaustively sorted out and very common, I'd rather wait. Because once I make the change, I'm never gonna want to go back.
    Try the jackaolpe 80 mm rim. Center spoke holes get covered with 2 wraps of 22 mm tubeless tape. Just like any other tubeless tire. Put on tire, inflate, take out valve, put in stans. Very easy, no issues. Just get a tubeless tire, many choices out there.

  53. #53
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    I've noticed more fat bikes, even during the summer, this year than ever before. I saw a kid ride by on a kid's fat bike yesterday. Some group is planning to groom MTB trails this winter.

    The bubble is still fat where I'm at.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leeboh View Post
    Try the jackaolpe 80 mm rim. Center spoke holes get covered with 2 wraps of 22 mm tubeless tape. Just like any other tubeless tire. Put on tire, inflate, take out valve, put in stans. Very easy, no issues. Just get a tubeless tire, many choices out there.
    Tubeless rims are the secret- Jackalopes, Mulefits, Whisky, MOBD, etc. all work well and mated with tubeless tires and can usually be inflated with a floor pump.
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  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjsb View Post
    or smaller nimble companies that don't make a lot of money.
    Not to turn this into an economics discussion, but that's really it, right there.

    There's some stigma created in the last I don't know how many years, against smaller companies/business, and their ability to "succeed". Paying ones bills, making bikes that make them happy, and being able to spend time with friends and family, is what this is all about, not spread sheets and riches for the top execs.

    What we have now is an industry bent on being too big to fail.

    I say flip it around. Focus on your strengths, your passions, and dump the "perpetual growth is the only indicator of success" mindset.

    If Specialized sold say, a million bikes last year (not an actual number mind you), but only sold 950,000 this year? They'd be a huge panic, and likely axe a whole mess of people, all while focusing on making their next model years bikes, .03% stiffer, .025% more vertically compliant, 3 grams lighter, and making sure that every bike was SWAT compatible, right down to their 16" kids bikes, because ya know, that'll fix it.

    How about, business goes up and down, and maybe trim the fat of having a bike at every $50 price point, and reduce SKU's by a couple dozen, and keep the employees who are the true driving force behind your brand?

    We're just too focused on profits ever upward, and someone missed the memo that this concept is a farce, and utterly impossible to maintain in perpetuity.

    Whomever came up with it needs to be smacked into the 1500's and told to fend for themselves with a butter knife.
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  56. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitflogger View Post
    IMBA chapter data show general area and mine as shining stars. One of our bike shop sponsors told me the year has not been great overall but thanks to us their MTB sales are up 12%. For 2015 our region about doubled IMBA's growth, and our chapter was well ahead of that. We're nearing 300% more contributing members in just a few years. The relatively small number of stalwarts we have made MTB scenes where it was a few freaks years ago. We've finished our 4th summer of having kids MTB lesson programs. A third lesson program started. Our biggest lesson program has 20-30 kids taking MTB lessons twice a week all summer long.

    Our area leadership considers any area not having kids MTB lessons foolish. Parents drop their kids off. They dust off their bikes from college. Weeks to a year later mom and dad have new bikes too. Quite a few are fat bikes.
    The Loppet Foundation does a kids program and three or four HS teams ride the trails I frequent. Two teams and 100 kids were riding when I was doing trail work last week.

    Lots of new bikes out there but you can't swing a dead cat without hitting one or more bike shops in the Minneapolis area.
    Last edited by Jeff_G; 09-07-2016 at 01:16 PM.
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  57. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    Not to turn this into an economics discussion, but that's really it, right there.

    There's some stigma created in the last I don't know how many years, against smaller companies/business, and their ability to "succeed". Paying ones bills, making bikes that make them happy, and being able to spend time with friends and family, is what this is all about, not spread sheets and riches for the top execs.

    What we have now is an industry bent on being too big to fail.

    I say flip it around. Focus on your strengths, your passions, and dump the "perpetual growth is the only indicator of success" mindset.

    If Specialized sold say, a million bikes last year (not an actual number mind you), but only sold 950,000 this year? They'd be a huge panic, and likely axe a whole mess of people, all while focusing on making their next model years bikes, .03% stiffer, .025% more vertically compliant, 3 grams lighter, and making sure that every bike was SWAT compatible, right down to their 16" kids bikes, because ya know, that'll fix it.

    How about, business goes up and down, and maybe trim the fat of having a bike at every $50 price point, and reduce SKU's by a couple dozen, and keep the employees who are the true driving force behind your brand?

    We're just too focused on profits ever upward, and someone missed them memo that this concept is a farce, and utterly impossible to maintain in perpetuity.

    Whomever came up with it needs to be smacked into the 1500's and told to fend for themselves with a butter knife.

    No it's not a farce.


    Capitalism.

    Shareholders mandate a minimum return on capital. Getting smaller successfully/gracefully is rare in the medium to large business world.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

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  58. #58
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    More reasons why I believe fat is not dead:

    1. Some percentage of these new single track riders I see will want to keep riding through the winter.

    2. Almost without exception every person that asks about my bike assumes it weighs 55 pounds and is twice as hard to pedal as a skinny. When educated they are surprised and intrigued.

    3. The whole Fat Road Bike market has yet to reach critical mass.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

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    When fatbikes are still dominated by rigid forks, where is there room for non incremental improvements? That new fatbike in the store is barely an improvement over the one I have. It may have 11 speed instead of 10, but I can just upgrade my current bike for much less $$ than buying a whole new bike. Maybe the new one fits 4.8 tires and mine only fits 4.6, but does that justify dropping the coin on a new bike? There are a few small companies making noticeable changes in fatbikes, but most of the industry has stagnated.
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    Saturated? Maybe. Stagnant? I don't think so.

    I didn't follow fat bikes three years ago but it seems like today there is more carbon, more tires, shorter and adjustable chain stays, larger and more varied tire fitment, tubeless ready rims, more shock options, and lot's of geometries that did not exist three years ago.

    I think.

    I know I'm glad I didn't jump in with a 2015 Farley 5 or 8 and got my 16 Farley 7.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

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  61. #61
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    I'm on a roll today!

    One other thing I've been noticing. I was looking around for a used bike for someone.

    Is it my imagination or are used fat bikes holding their value pretty well?
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

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  62. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_G View Post
    Is it my imagination or are used fat bikes holding their value pretty well?
    I certainly agree with your comment where seeing is believing and there are a lot of fatties out there on the MN scene. That should not be surprising. In the MN market there continues to be interest in fat bikes, possibly as a quiver killer. It shouldn't be surprising they hold a good value in this market. Further, I do frequent Craigslist quite a bit and see the prices listed, but I always pad the price when I sell since I expect some haggling and I imagine other sellers do too. I think I've only ever sold a couple items on the 'list for what I listed them for and believe me I was quite surprised.

    I also think the industry is self correcting after last year and the result will be less options from those pumping out several models. Also, the standards have changed from 170,177/135 to 190,197/150 so I think the obvious options to go will be the 170/135, because of the simple reason you can fit a more narrow tire on a 190/150 but have to make compromises to fit a 5in tire with the 170 rear. There will probably be a few exceptions. I don't think fat is going anywhere in the areas with real winters, but plus will be the option for those areas that lack real snow fall.

    Mendon is certainly an old curmudgeon and I agree with what he posts mostly. That said, I like 650b and would like to try 650b+ so I hope it will be around for a little while longer. I would rather ride a wider 650b tire in a 29er frame and I'm not a weight weenie at 220lbs. 29+ seems a bit big, but there are a lot of Krampus lovers out there, maybe they know something I don't, it's certainly possible.
    I don't know why,... it's just MUSS easier to pedal than the other ones.

  63. #63
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    I think the 177 will still be a thing for Q-factor on most bikes. I still hit my calves on the chain stays and my feet are way out there on the 907.
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    ^ You mean the seat stays?

    I've seen a couple offerings with the 83mm downhill width BB shell for the q-factor conscious.
    I don't know why,... it's just MUSS easier to pedal than the other ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by schnee View Post
    I think the 177 will still be a thing for Q-factor on most bikes. I still hit my calves on the chain stays and my feet are way out there on the 907.
    I agree! I prefer 17X over 19X because of the Q factor. Also, apart from the largest tires available(ie. Bud, Lou, 2XL), most 4.6 tires will fit into a 17X frame with room to spare.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew Diller View Post
    Back to the bikes world, tubeless (and tubeless fat) is my bit of affluenza that I'm intentionally avoiding. I've seen that it can work. I know the ride is better. I get the physics. But until everything is exhaustively sorted out and very common, I'd rather wait. Because once I make the change, I'm never gonna want to go back.
    Drew - Flashing tape might as well be sold as Fat Bike Tubeless tape.
    Zip or Forti-Flash or similar. Start with TLR rim and tire - tape up rim, seat the tire, break one side, pour in sealant, inflate with compressor - done.

    It's sorted.

  67. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbhammercycle View Post
    ^ You mean the seat stays?
    Yeah, that.
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    The Northern Plains has had two consecutive winters of crappy snow/warm and yet we've still seen fat bikes increase in the area. I still get comments from people who've never seen them before which tells me we haven't hit saturation yet. I think the biggest issue is more companies fighting for smaller pieces of pie. On a related topic, I'm still on the 17X bandwagon due to q-factor.

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    Lack of snow isn't a bad thing for fattys in MN. There are XC skiers that look toward bikes for the winter exercise when the snow is crappy.

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    in UK, pretty much every reputable cycle store is selling Fatbikes, Everytime i goto Trail centers i see them, so imo, nope the bubble hasnt burst infact if anything its getting stronger as the 2017 models have just been released, if they were not as popular, big companies such as Spec/Trek/Felt/Cube etc would not waste resources on R&D as it would not be financially viable. All these companies do major research year in & year out to see if it's worth for them continue with a current model. They would not release a new version if popularity was dropping.
    Felt DD10 Fatty
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    Quote Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
    Who says there needs to be new development? The 2013 Specialized Fatboy is the same as the 2017 Fatboy. Only difference is new colors, a change in components and a guard added to the chainstay on the drive side. Otherwise it's still the same exact frame today as it was in 2013.

    Other than the full suspension FB offerings by some, what other developments do you think are necessary?

    no its not

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    I will never go back to skinny tires ;-)

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    Don't forget that what you are seeing in shops is the result of forecasts and R&D work that took place 2 years ago and absolutely does not reflect what said companies are investing in now.

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    Copy that!

    Quote Originally Posted by FASTFAT View Post
    I will never go back to skinny tires ;-)

    It seems true that we are witnessing a "correction," which in stock market terms is a reversion to the mean when a momentum stock (fad?) gets a little too hot. It's not as if any of us thought this day wouldn't come when seemingly *every* major bike brand last year offered a rather similar fat bike.

    Fat bikes will survive, that is for sure. 29ers are still alive and kicking, after all. Agreed that I'll be happy if the impending industry "diet" leads to less expensive fat tires.

    Then not to be off-topic, the discussion begs the next; if indeed the bike industry at large is in recession, then why is that? A friend and I have debated. On one hand, not every year can be 20 percent growth and at some point there needs to be a leveling off. On the other hand, a lot of us now middle-aged folk grew up around BMX, witnessed the development of the mountain bike, and loved riding bikes. These days we're caught up with family life and less able to devote time to buying the latest and greatest bikes. Are the younger generation(s) going to pick up the slack??

  75. #75
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    I would like another fatty please.

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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    Copy that!




    It seems true that we are witnessing a "correction," which in stock market terms is a reversion to the mean when a momentum stock (fad?) gets a little too hot. It's not as if any of us thought this day wouldn't come when seemingly *every* major bike brand last year offered a rather similar fat bike.

    Fat bikes will survive, that is for sure. 29ers are still alive and kicking, after all. Agreed that I'll be happy if the impending industry "diet" leads to less expensive fat tires.

    Then not to be off-topic, the discussion begs the next; if indeed the bike industry at large is in recession, then why is that? A friend and I have debated. On one hand, not every year can be 20 percent growth and at some point there needs to be a leveling off. On the other hand, a lot of us now middle-aged folk grew up around BMX, witnessed the development of the mountain bike, and loved riding bikes. These days we're caught up with family life and less able to devote time to buying the latest and greatest bikes. Are the younger generation(s) going to pick up the slack??
    Bike sales for youth are even worse, it is like an entire generation is no longer riding bikes. I have not read anything that attempts to explain that trend. My son and all his friends ride bikes so we are the exception, apparently. Maybe kids just sit around and play their iPad now? Mine is not allowed to do that. It might be as simple as that, perhaps not as complicated as why african american kids stopped playing baseball, for example.

    With african american kids and baseball it sems to be a combinaion of disintegration of 2 parent family and rise of other sport--basketball in the culture.

    There is now a similar disintegration of 2 parent family in white america, which could contribute to something like bike riding not being as popular. But I'd put more money on the iPad.


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    I see a lot of kids riding bikes in my neighborhood. However, they are all bikes from Walmart including the Mongoose Fattys. When I grew up in the 70s and 80s, we(our parents) purchased brand name bikes for us from a local bike shop. Today, many parents cannot afford to buy their kids a brand named bike. Why would they when they can get a Walmart bike for cheap figuring the kid will outgrow it in 1-2 years?

  78. #78
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    "Stranger danger" culture. Same number of predators as there ever was, but to hear parents nowadays, you'd think there was a child rapist behind every bush. Heard about the parents who got arrested for child endangerment, for allowing their 8 and 10 year olds to walk home the whole two blocks from the park, ALONE????? Oy.

    Obesity (kind of a chicken/egg thing there, really)

    Video gaming as a lifestyle, compared to just being a "game". When was the last time you heard a person who grew up in the80's or earlier, referring to a friend of theirs growing up as a Risk(er) or Monopoly(er)? D+D was about the only gamer culture back then, and at least those folks went on to be the smarty pants designers and engineers of today.

    Pro sports level crap for 10 year olds. Travel soccer, travel hockey, travel baseball, thousands of dollars spent on equipment, all in the hope that little Johhny will become famous, or perhaps get a free ride to college where he can be passed through without learning a thing, all for the glory of the Alma Mater's sports obsessed alumni.

    The Internet, nuff said.

    The rise of academic "rigor". Lord knows the folks who made all the stuff we have today, got a third rate education, right? We need to change that for sure. Space travel, computers, chemistry, health care, all of it sucks due to the crappy schools of the last 50 years. A better idea is to dump recess, and gym, so kids can have more butt time with the books.

    I could go on, but, suffice to say, this pretty much says what you're saying. A buddy of mine is a recently retired forest ranger from an area of the state renowned for it's amazing hiking, camping, and rec options. He said in the last 10 years, he's seen a flat out zeroing of young families on the trails, or in the camp grounds. Pretty much all he sees anymore, is folks 40+ on their own, or 50 plus, hauling their terrified looking grand kids out just to get them some non screen time.
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  79. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    "Stranger danger" culture. Same number of predators as there ever was, but to hear parents nowadays, you'd think there was a child rapist behind every bush. Heard about the parents who got arrested for child endangerment, for allowing their 8 and 10 year olds to walk home the whole two blocks from the park, ALONE????? Oy.

    Obesity (kind of a chicken/egg thing there, really)

    Video gaming as a lifestyle, compared to just being a "game". When was the last time you heard a person who grew up in the80's or earlier, referring to a friend of theirs growing up as a Risk(er) or Monopoly(er)? D+D was about the only gamer culture back then, and at least those folks went on to be the smarty pants designers and engineers of today.

    Pro sports level crap for 10 year olds. Travel soccer, travel hockey, travel baseball, thousands of dollars spent on equipment, all in the hope that little Johhny will become famous, or perhaps get a free ride to college where he can be passed through without learning a thing, all for the glory of the Alma Mater's sports obsessed alumni.

    The Internet, nuff said.

    The rise of academic "rigor". Lord knows the folks who made all the stuff we have today, got a third rate education, right? We need to change that for sure. Space travel, computers, chemistry, health care, all of it sucks due to the crappy schools of the last 50 years. A better idea is to dump recess, and gym, so kids can have more butt time with the books.

    I could go on, but, suffice to say, this pretty much says what you're saying. A buddy of mine is a recently retired forest ranger from an area of the state renowned for it's amazing hiking, camping, and rec options. He said in the last 10 years, he's seen a flat out zeroing of young families on the trails, or in the camp grounds. Pretty much all he sees anymore, is folks 40+ on their own, or 50 plus, hauling their terrified looking grand kids out just to get them some non screen time.

    When I read many of your posts I seem to find myself not agreeing with you.

    This post is about 1003% accurate.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

    16' Trek 8.4 DS
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  80. #80
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    Good!

    I value all my friends, even those I often disagree with. The lack of ability to get on with folks you don't agree with 100% should be added to my list of things that really screw our young people up.

    Let's face it. Riding bikes and drinking beer with a dose of BS after, is something we can all get behind, regardless of sociopolitical or financial mindset.....

    There is this one guy we ride with though.
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  81. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    "Stranger danger" culture. Same number of predators as there ever was, but to hear parents nowadays, you'd think there was a child rapist behind every bush. Heard about the parents who got arrested for child endangerment, for allowing their 8 and 10 year olds to walk home the whole two blocks from the park, ALONE????? Oy.

    Obesity (kind of a chicken/egg thing there, really)

    Video gaming as a lifestyle, compared to just being a "game". When was the last time you heard a person who grew up in the80's or earlier, referring to a friend of theirs growing up as a Risk(er) or Monopoly(er)? D+D was about the only gamer culture back then, and at least those folks went on to be the smarty pants designers and engineers of today.

    Pro sports level crap for 10 year olds. Travel soccer, travel hockey, travel baseball, thousands of dollars spent on equipment, all in the hope that little Johhny will become famous, or perhaps get a free ride to college where he can be passed through without learning a thing, all for the glory of the Alma Mater's sports obsessed alumni.

    The Internet, nuff said.

    The rise of academic "rigor". Lord knows the folks who made all the stuff we have today, got a third rate education, right? We need to change that for sure. Space travel, computers, chemistry, health care, all of it sucks due to the crappy schools of the last 50 years. A better idea is to dump recess, and gym, so kids can have more butt time with the books.

    I could go on, but, suffice to say, this pretty much says what you're saying. A buddy of mine is a recently retired forest ranger from an area of the state renowned for it's amazing hiking, camping, and rec options. He said in the last 10 years, he's seen a flat out zeroing of young families on the trails, or in the camp grounds. Pretty much all he sees anymore, is folks 40+ on their own, or 50 plus, hauling their terrified looking grand kids out just to get them some non screen time.
    Great post! I had not considered the Obesity and Pro Sports angles before. On the latter, My 7 year old son did a soccer camp for several weeks earlier this year and it was a lot of fun. His first time playing organized soccer and he was easily one of the worst skilled players but he still loved it and his teammates were awesome, explaining the game to him on the field and helping him with the rules. At the end of camp I ask when the next one is and I get an email response that my son is "awesome" and ready for the next level--Travel Soccer. It costs $2500 to join, excluding uniform and other fees. I thought WTH! He is an awesome son but there is no way he is "awesome" at soccer and no way I am spending $2.5 k. I would first drop the latter on robotics kits for him or on a really nice 24" mtb with suspension.

    That is really sad about the trails and camping, which reminds me that we need to join boy scouts or pioneers this year. I am really glad that he loves the outsdoors. When we were in Portland last summer and hiking up Multnomoh Falls, for example, he says to me "I wish I could do this everyday!"


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  82. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_G View Post
    I'm on a roll today!

    One other thing I've been noticing. I was looking around for a used bike for someone.

    Is it my imagination or are used fat bikes holding their value pretty well?
    Yep, crazy good resale on fat bikes right now. Resale on any trail/XC bike now is terrible though.

  83. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjsb View Post
    Great post!
    Thanks.

    A note on Scouts? There's a big movement in it towards "boy led" troops, which is great. However, it tends to allow them to steer it towards their own interests, rather than exploring outside them.

    So you get whole troops that focus on a few things, and attract kids, based on that.

    So ask around, to find one that does what you're after.

    My son's first troop was into RC cars and fishing. Camping? That's what we bought a Winnebago for....

    He did that troop for a little while, but we heard about another one that did an outdoor campout, monthly (away from cars too, no car camping allowed). Not too many adults were that interested in teaching how to be comfortable weather be damned, though. I stepped up since I've been doing it a long time, and actually was in the same type of troop when I was a kid.

    I tired quickly of having arguments with car camping morons who insisted that cotton jeans and sweat shirts were perfect wet weather, winter camping gear. I'm trying to keep your kid healthy, and alive, how about you try and listen to what I'm saying??

    Anyhoo, he's an Eagle, 22 now, loves getting cold, wet and dirty, and would rather be out, than in. Win! Scouts is great, but you need to know what's up with the program you join.

    And yeah, every kid is "awesome" when some lazy ex high school jock is running a $2500 per child program that they get majority of the $ from....
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  84. #84
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    I agree with most, except the gym and recess things. Those are important, ESPECIALLY the free play aspect of recess. More butt time in classrooms in front of books is not necessarily the answer.

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    I just picked my daughter up a 24" Giant from a local bike shop. It was a left over 2013/2014 model. I think you guys are correct that most parents cant or won't spend over 200 dollars on a bicycle when the big box stores have them for less than $100. Thats whats wrong these days people won't pay for quality they had rather just buy three cheap products for the cost of one decent one.

  86. #86
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    Didn't they do some studies that found that the kids were better able to sit and concentrate on the lesson plan after gym and recess? I have found my son is better able to be calm after he's run around outside for a while.

    Otherwise, agree with most of the post. It's not surprising the level of disinterested kids at being active when they spend a good amount of time on the tablet, computer, gaming console, or simply in front of the TV. When it's crap weather out, there's a little understanding for not going outside. However, I have always thought I should dress for the weather rather than wait for the weather to suit my mood. I would also rather be outside than in a health club, partly because the outdoors is always there as soon as I step out the door and partly because I would rather put money into my toys and tools rather than someone else's. I also get cranky if I don't get my outside time.
    I don't know why,... it's just MUSS easier to pedal than the other ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jd10ac View Post
    I think you guys are correct that most parents cant or won't spend over 200 dollars on a bicycle when the big box stores have them for less than $100. Thats whats wrong these days people won't pay for quality they had rather just buy three cheap products for the cost of one decent one.
    Parents just cant see the **quality** in a $400 kid's bike.

    It's not like the LBS can say "Yeah, but this one is made in USA, out of real American steel !!!"

    The LBS can only say "Uh, well, you know, this one is made in China too, but it's quality China".

    Parents know the kids are going to outgrow the bike in a year or so, then it's worth $35 at the garage sale.

  88. #88
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    Perhaps my snark was too subtle....

    I'm saying the removal of physical activity from school, in favor of "more rigor" is a huge mistake.

    Anyone with kids, or dogs, knows, you gotta get rid of ~50% of the energy within, before pretty much anything sticks, educationally.

    Since those are viewed as "play" in the same way that bikes are viewed as "toys", is the root of the disconnect if you ask me.

    Besides, far better to offer those kids "enriched experiences" by making their parents pay big $ for it in some after school program. (snark alert).
    This is a Pugs not some carbon wannabee pretzel wagon!!

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  89. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post
    Perhaps my snark was too subtle....

    I'm saying the removal of physical activity from school, in favor of "more rigor" is a huge mistake.

    Anyone with kids, or dogs, knows, you gotta get rid of ~50% of the energy within, before pretty much anything sticks, educationally.

    Since those are viewed as "play" in the same way that bikes are viewed as "toys", is the root of the disconnect if you ask me.

    Besides, far better to offer those kids "enriched experiences" by making their parents pay big $ for it in some after school program. (snark alert).
    I thought I was picking up some snark, but it was subtle enough that I had doubts that I saw it. In that case, yes, I agree.

  90. #90
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    No way the fatties will be gone. I see more of them on the trails even now in the summer. All my LBSS here all tell me they sell fatties quickly.
    2015 Specialized Rockhopper
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  91. #91
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    You probably lose a bit of credibility when you introduce yourself as Mr Turd.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

    16' Trek 8.4 DS
    16' Farley 7
    and I'm OK admitting..
    16' Sturgis

    Minneapolis MN

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    Well crap, now I want a Farley

  93. #93
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    Kids are just getting lazy, let's just go out and buy em more electric crap to ride on so they don't need to break a sweat. I'm guessing we will see a 20" e bmx bike at walmart soon enough

    I remember back in the day we would disappear all day on our bikes during the summer. Now I need to chase mine out of the house with a boot to the ............

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    I'm not an insider, but I'll tell you what I see as someone who is 'fat-curious'. There are quite a few different makers of fat-bikes, but only a few are compelling. Many feature old/odd/weird angles and measures. Many are using equipment that just isn't competitive but at relatively high price points. Brakes are the best example- people who really like to ride in the snow often prefer cable brakes, but all-season guys want up to date hydraulics. Then you have $2k+ bikes running 1x10s . Which guy are you going to build for and market to. The market has had difficulty deciding if it wants to be a snow/sand bike or a 4 seasons trail bike. Those that are just marketed toward snow are going to struggle outside of a few regions (imho) because they are seen as a novelty bike. It's a great market for independant builders though.

    So I think a few brands have the 4 season fat-bike covered for the demand that's present and so it's going to be hard for every maker to find a way in, like they were all trying to do. Lots of new fat bikes last year, but so many of them were really mediocre.

    I know personally, I get up to the edge of buying a decent one but then sort of pull back because I wonder how often I'm really going to ride it. The new Farley's and more recent Beargrease's and bikes like that have renewed my interest because I don't see myself just putting them away for 9 months.

  95. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by MendonCycleSmith View Post

    I could go on, but, suffice to say, this pretty much says what you're saying. A buddy of mine is a recently retired forest ranger from an area of the state renowned for it's amazing hiking, camping, and rec options. He said in the last 10 years, he's seen a flat out zeroing of young families on the trails, or in the camp grounds. Pretty much all he sees anymore, is folks 40+ on their own, or 50 plus, hauling their terrified looking grand kids out just to get them some non screen time.
    I'm going to skip that other part and focus on this part- where I am, they are recommending we start booking reservations in state parks as far in advance as possible because they are filling up so fast (I'm looking at booking for July '17 in October at a state park). I can't find 2 consecutive days in the same spot for my trailer in any of the nicer campgrounds. The national parks are out of control busy. I'm about 6 hours from Yellowstone and I'm afraid to go. I went to an Oregon park for a week this summer and it was packed and there were a ton of families.

    NE may be different, but all is not lost.

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    It's all well & good that people are using Fatbikes, and that we see them everywhere.

    But if the bicycle industry is not showing them anymore and if they are not on the floor at Dlck's Sporting Goods; interest is waning.

  97. #97
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    We might well see some companies reduce their fatbike range, now that there are some value models out there (eg. Voodoo, Calibre) that are not giant-sized BSOs, for some companies their massive profit margin in a niche market has either burst or is about to.

    I live in hope that decent quality fatbike tyres will now become more affordable, now there are more of us out there needing replacement rubber. Yes, fatbike tyres are considerably bigger than other bike types up to "plus" bikes, but having to usually pay £50+ per tyre to me means the rubber bubble is still very much an inflated cash cow.

    Speaking of tyres, it was great to recently read that Vee are bringing out a slick fat tyre this season, the Apache Fatty Slick. I'm using Jumbo Jims on the road currently, but I live in hope that this new Vee tyre will start a trend for some quality, road specific super-balloons!

  98. #98
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    The bubble is about to pop if it hasn't. I see it mostly as people have gotten wise to the over inflated prices of Fat bikes and are going after companies that off better bang for buck. Though they can be a do it all type bike, they are not for everyone by any stretch. Especially with "skinny bikes" getting wider.

    I'm hoping prices start coming down into the tolerable range. Companies got their few years of fat profits off of them (having let the original fat bike companies do all the hard work first) so I expect some companies will cut back, lower prices, or drop fat bikes all together. A lot of the issue is they went "bigger is better" and sadly there is a limit to practicality for a do it all bike unless you live where you get serious snow.

    I would like to see more size options from the good tire manufacturers. Seems like everything good is in 2 sizes. But when bikes like a mukluk will fit bigger tires except for chain clearance, be nice to have a good set of "in between" options around the 4-4.25 size (actual) instead of 3.8 or 4.5-4.8.

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  99. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    Then not to be off-topic, the discussion begs the next; if indeed the bike industry at large is in recession, then why is that? A friend and I have debated. On one hand, not every year can be 20 percent growth and at some point there needs to be a leveling off. On the other hand, a lot of us now middle-aged folk grew up around BMX, witnessed the development of the mountain bike, and loved riding bikes. These days we're caught up with family life and less able to devote time to buying the latest and greatest bikes. Are the younger generation(s) going to pick up the slack??
    I've noticed that too. When the 27.5 started it's meteoric rise to fame they did so at the expense of the 29er. When the bicycle industry invents a new niche it's at the expense of another niche. There are no new people getting into cycling. Its the same people buying their N+1 bike. That's the real problem.
    A garage full of steel frames means happiness.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrIcky View Post
    I'm going to skip that other part and focus on this part- where I am, they are recommending we start booking reservations in state parks as far in advance as possible because they are filling up so fast (I'm looking at booking for July '17 in October at a state park). I can't find 2 consecutive days in the same spot for my trailer in any of the nicer campgrounds. The national parks are out of control busy. I'm about 6 hours from Yellowstone and I'm afraid to go. I went to an Oregon park for a week this summer and it was packed and there were a ton of families.

    NE may be different, but all is not lost.

    This is also true in Minnesota parks but I think the BWCA attendance (pack in canoe camping) down a bit. So to Mendon's point, car camping in jeans with a hot shower 30 feet away may not be dead.
    "At least I'm enjoying the ride"

    16' Trek 8.4 DS
    16' Farley 7
    and I'm OK admitting..
    16' Sturgis

    Minneapolis MN

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