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  1. #101
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    Fire activity seems to be much lower now! The heatmap shows fewer spots, and the smoke is starting to dramatically clear in the whole local area! We saw some blue sky for the first time in a week!

    Rain will really help, but already we can see and feel the progress that they have been working so hard to create!

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    Quote Originally Posted by boomn View Post
    Fire activity seems to be much lower now! The heatmap shows fewer spots, and the smoke is starting to dramatically clear in the whole local area! We saw some blue sky for the first time in a week!

    Rain will really help, but already we can see and feel the progress that they have been working so hard to create!
    So good to hear. Thanks for the update.
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  3. #103
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    There is a situation. The burn area of Paradise is forecasted to get 7+ inches of rain in the next 6 daysTown of Paradise being evacuated due to Camp Fire 🔥-screen-shot-2018-11-19-10.16.25-pm.jpg
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  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    There is a situation. The burn area of Paradise is forecasted to get 7+ inches of rain in the next 6 daysClick image for larger version. 

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    Incredibly dangerous for fire fighters.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Incredibly dangerous for fire fighters.
    Itís incredibly dangerous for everyone working in the area. Iíve been in Paradise since last Monday, the number of over head dangers is staggering.

    Today the winds picked up along with a few hours of heavy rain. A lot of new debris was in the road as I left for the night.


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  6. #106
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    Air tanker drops in wildfires are often just for show

    https://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-...l29-story.html


    Fire commanders say they are often pressured to order planes and helicopters into action on major fires even when the aircraft won't do any good. Such pressure has resulted in needless and costly air operations, experienced fire managers said in interviews.

    The reason for the interference, they say, is that aerial drops of water and retardant make good television. They're a highly visible way for political leaders to show they're doing everything possible to quell a wildfire, even if it entails overriding the judgment of incident commanders on the ground.

    Firefighters have developed their own vernacular for such spectacles. They call them "CNN drops."
    Great. Just great.
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  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finch Platte View Post
    Air tanker drops in wildfires are often just for show

    https://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-...l29-story.html




    Great. Just great.
    Not a surprise. In any war, the fight is actually won on the ground in hand to hand combat:

    CCC crews with Pulaski's in the winter is SO much less sexy than a DC9 loaded with retardant, bombing away during a conflagration. Hand crews in the "off" season doing full load reduction, coupled with controlled burns would be a more prudent use of resources.

    Also, FYI, mechanical "thinning" alone isn't enough - environments [California's is adapted to a fire] have life cycles, and removing the quick burn offs of the understory - leaves insect and fungal populations untouched. It's like a giant garden mulching operation - nothing grows through the blanket of leaf litter/tree trimmings. With burning, post burn, after a year or two, there's an open patchwork pattern in a forest, pioneer species [often legumes - for instance, lupines - which fix nitrogen in to soil] with MUCH greater plant/animal bio-diversity, and a healthier, less flammable environment. On a ride, ever wonder why it's kinda quiet with so little visible wildlife [other than the homeless campers ; ) ] in the forest of the Santa Cruz mountains? There's no light for plants and thus, nothing to eat for animals - it's predominantly overgrown second growth from the initial logging in the 1880's [in photo's, Ben Lomond mountain was a clear cut 1900].

    Part of the problem is actually the standards/requirements of the California Air Resources Board - that part of the story is yet to be told, if it ever is.
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  8. #108
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    Thanks for the info, jms.

    Camp Fire finally contained. 🍻

    Washington Post: Camp Fire, the deadliest wildfire in California's history, has been
    contained.
    https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.a...een-contained/
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  9. #109
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    It seems to me that just like the Napa fire, 99% of the fatalities and the structure damage occurred in the first 12 hours of the fire.

    Seems like a new firestorm phenomenon and our preparation/approach/attack/warning system needs to be evolved significantly.
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  10. #110
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    With the fire hot enough to melt metal in many situations, they may not ever find many of the over 500 reported missingTown of Paradise being evacuated due to Camp Fire 🔥-46104974_10155976089965773_5893735100608151552_o.jpg
    photo by Steve Cooper
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  11. #111
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    Here's a short 360 video clip I shot two weeks ago in Paradise, part of an immersive VR documentary I put together for Oculus Go which should release later this week on Gala360. This was shot on Blue Haven off Clark Road, across from the still standing Best Western Hotel. Most of the town looks like this.

    https://youtu.be/qa79Q-0jC9s


  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    With the fire hot enough to melt metal in many situations, they may not ever find many of the over 500 reported missingClick image for larger version. 

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    FWIW aluminum melts quite a bit lower than at what bone disintegrates at. That's a box van body in the photo; the steel frame shows little distortion. I was once involved in an art project where we were encapsulating carved bone (animal) in molten glass.

    Bone keeps it shape at rather high temperatures although the hotter it gets the weaker it becomes. (When cooled back down)

    Google "cremulator" for creepy specifics.
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

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  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    FWIW aluminum melts quite a bit lower than at what bone disintegrates at. That's a box van body in the photo; the steel frame shows little distortion. I was once involved in an art project where we were encapsulating carved bone (animal) in molten glass.

    Bone keeps it shape at rather high temperatures although the hotter it gets the weaker it becomes. (When cooled back down)

    Google "cremulator" for creepy specifics.
    It's not totally evident in that crop from my photo that the steel gun safe was slumping. Structural steel beams, regular steel, auto frames, panels and windshields all over were heated hot enough to deform and look like drooping wax.

    Here's a 360 shot at the same location, on Wagstaff:


  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by thinkcooper View Post
    It's not totally evident in that crop from my photo that the steel gun safe was slumping. Steel frames, beams, autos and windshields all over were heated hot enough to look like drooping wax.

    Here's a 360 shot at the same location, on Wagstaff:

    Steel at red heat (around 1200 F) starts getting "droopy"; also the melting point of aluminum. Show me some molten steel and that's when the fire is hot enough to make bones disappear. Yes I have seen intact human bones and melted aluminum together in the same location (aircraft wreck).
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  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Yes I have seen intact human bones and melted aluminum together in the same location (aircraft wreck).
    Sorry you had to see that. It has taken a few weeks to soften the impact of having been in Paradise Nov. 13-14 witnessing the destruction and recording these videos.

  16. #116
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  17. #117
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    Man gives each student and teacher at Paradise High $1000.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/11/28/67153...se-high-school

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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Man gives each student and teacher at Paradise High $1000.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/11/28/67153...se-high-school
    That's pretty damn cool. Lots of generosity going on out there.

    In other cases, I'm really curious how all the $$ pouring in is being used.
    What's wrong with him??

  19. #119
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    What's wrong with him??

  20. #120
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    ^^^ It won't be the last one to fold, I'm sure.
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  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finch Platte View Post
    Insurance companies may stop writing policies in high fire areas or make them prohibitively expensive. If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage. This might directly impact home prices and redevelopment in these areas.

  22. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Insurance companies may stop writing policies in high fire areas or make them prohibitively expensive. If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage. This might directly impact home prices and redevelopment in these areas.
    Not to be disrespectful to the people effected, but that's the way it should be. Building in disaster areas is a bad idea. If you are right on the coast in a hurricane flood zone or below sea level or in a fire area without defend-able space you shouldn't be building new houses.
    Same goes for building on a fault line. Not a house I would buy.
    Making shit harder than it needs to be isn't awesome, it's just...harder.

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Insurance companies may stop writing policies in high fire areas or make them prohibitively expensive. If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage. This might directly impact home prices and redevelopment in these areas.
    I can see that for more remote places or scattered homes, but in this case I think there is too much interest in rebuilding Paradise. They will find a way, even if Paradise ends up looking different with a lot less trees. But, I'm not sure how much of that interest will be coming from former residents in the long run...

    I know many in Redding are choosing not to rebuild their old homes after the Carr fire, and I think it will be a much higher percentage in Paradise. As much as there is a lot of good attitudes from former Paradise residents right now about rebuilding their town, there is so little town or infrastructure to go back to. Grocery stores, gas stations, doctors offices, every school in the town... gone. And so many retirees who will likely move on instead of waiting a couple years to see this through. The story of individuals rebuilding their former lives sounds great, but it will take more than insurance payouts to rebuild the town to vibrancy.

    The buzzards are already circling, seeing the opportunities here. There are a lot of rumors floating around the area that KB Homes and others are talking with local and state govt about ideas to buy up entire neighborhoods. They would facilitate the process to install a sewer system and even underground power in those areas, and in return would be able to sell a lot of nice modern homes in modern style neighborhoods when this is all done.

    Paradise will be rebuilt, but it won't be the same Paradise

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexbn921 View Post
    Not to be disrespectful to the people effected, but that's the way it should be. Building in disaster areas is a bad idea. If you are right on the coast in a hurricane flood zone or below sea level or in a fire area without defend-able space you shouldn't be building new houses.
    Same goes for building on a fault line. Not a house I would buy.
    Guess we better not build near the coastline, or near rivers, or dams, or levies, or areas prone to slides, or avalanches, or stampedes, etc., etc. Write me when you reach Utopia
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  25. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by boomn View Post

    Paradise will be rebuilt, but it won't be the same Paradise
    Yup! It will be Pleasure.





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  26. #126
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    Paradise Lost

    Quote Originally Posted by boomn View Post
    I know many in Redding are choosing not to rebuild their old homes after the Carr fire, and I think it will be a much higher percentage in Paradise. As much as there is a lot of good attitudes from former Paradise residents right now about rebuilding their town, there is so little town or infrastructure to go back to. Grocery stores, gas stations, doctors offices, every school in the town... gone. And so many retirees who will likely move on instead of waiting a couple years to see this through. The story of individuals rebuilding their former lives sounds great, but it will take more than insurance payouts to rebuild the town to vibrancy.
    Paradise will be rebuilt, but it won't be the same Paradise
    Insightful post. And that will be an even greater tragedy. Where can those living on limited/fixed incomes go next and have some reasonable quality of life? To me, considering their degree of culpability in this [un]natural disaster, here's where the state and feds, partnering with PG&E and insurance companies need to make these victims as close to whole as possible. That's what good leadership and good governance look like. FVck, after world war two, the US rebuilt Europe - and we didn't hand them the bill afterward, or say, "nah too expensive", let's sell it to a developer for pennies on the dollar.
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    A flyover from a pilot fairly local.
    He did a lot of good coverage of Oroville dam as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LxWKaiZ5o4&t=2s

  28. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by jms View Post
    Guess we better not build near the coastline, or near rivers, or dams, or levies, or areas prone to slides, or avalanches, or stampedes, etc., etc. Write me when you reach Utopia
    I personal won't buy a house in a flood plan, high fire area, right on the cliff at the coast that's eroding, below sea level or directly over a fault line. Having a recurring history of devastation doesn't sound like a good place to put down roots. These places are usaly the last to be developed for good reason.
    My grandparents live next to Petaluma creek and it flooded their house every 5-10 years. They had marks on the walls from each high water event.
    Making shit harder than it needs to be isn't awesome, it's just...harder.

  29. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by jms View Post
    Insightful post. And that will be an even greater tragedy. Where can those living on limited/fixed incomes go next and have some reasonable quality of life? To me, considering their degree of culpability in this [un]natural disaster, here's where the state and feds, partnering with PG&E and insurance companies need to make these victims as close to whole as possible. That's what good leadership and good governance look like. FVck, after world war two, the US rebuilt Europe - and we didn't hand them the bill afterward, or say, "nah too expensive", let's sell it to a developer for pennies on the dollar.
    I don't know how they can survive for long here without great patience and determination. There is no housing left in the area! Rentals all have long waiting lists, RV spots are full within a 100 mile radius, and houses are selling sight-unseen with 30+ bids for up to 25% over asking.

    Many who have received homeowners ins. payouts already are buying homes in Chico/Oroville/Orland/etc and settling in. But anyone who was renting in the Paradise area won't have that opportunity.

  30. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexbn921 View Post
    I personal won't buy a house in a flood plan, high fire area, right on the cliff at the coast that's eroding, below sea level or directly over a fault line. Having a recurring history of devastation doesn't sound like a good place to put down roots. These places are usaly the last to be developed for good reason.
    My grandparents live next to Petaluma creek and it flooded their house every 5-10 years. They had marks on the walls from each high water event.
    SF was burned to the ground in the 1908 earthquake. Would you live there?
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  31. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by jms View Post
    SF was burned to the ground in the 1908 earthquake. Would you live there?
    Carry on. We all have a personal risk meter and this is just a personal thing that I looked at when buying a house. Not looking to debate it. I hope that everyone effected by this tragedy rebounds and is able to move on with their lives in a positive manner.
    Making shit harder than it needs to be isn't awesome, it's just...harder.

  32. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Insurance companies may stop writing policies in high fire areas or make them prohibitively expensive. If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage. This might directly impact home prices and redevelopment in these areas.
    This. A friend of mine in Truckee was just given notice that his insurance company would not be renewing his policy because of this.

  33. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by jms View Post
    SF was burned to the ground in the 1908 earthquake. Would you live there?
    The same year that the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

    Just messin with ya...






    1906
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  34. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    The same year that the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

    Just messin with ya...






    1906
    LOL!
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  35. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexbn921 View Post
    Not to be disrespectful to the people effected, but that's the way it should be. Building in disaster areas is a bad idea. If you are right on the coast in a hurricane flood zone or below sea level or in a fire area without defend-able space you shouldn't be building new houses.
    Same goes for building on a fault line. Not a house I would buy.
    This is so true. We should all live in a safe bay area bedroom community like Santa Rosa. Oh wait.... I'm sorry, if you live anywhere in California you likely have open space near you that can exaggerate a fire's behavior. If the wind is blowing 45 mph and your neighbor's knocks his bbq over and catches something on fire your neighborhood is pretty likely to be affected no matter where you live.

    I take responsibility for living where I do and am willing to pay for the insurance to make sure I can rebuild or relocate. What I'm not accepting of is the insurance companies cancelling policies that people have had for decades due to the this perceived "new" fire threat. My house is safer than it ever has been yet I keep waiting for a cancellation notice on a policy I've had for 22 years. I've always been willing to take that risk over living in the middle a concrete jungle that is modern suburbia. Last I checked Insurance companies were in the business of risk management, not risk avoidance. If managing my risk means I pay more than that is an acceptable solution to me. The prospect of not being able to get insurance and having the state step in is not.

    There will always be people living and moving to the urban wildland interface. Nice houses in my neighborhood aren't staying on the market for more than the average length of time historically for this area even with these recent horrible events.

    Managing the risk needs to be addressed by all, both public and private. The last 3 fires that threatened my house all started on public property, both state and federal that are being woefully mismanaged. How can I manage that risk?

  36. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forest Rider View Post
    A flyover from a pilot fairly local.
    He did a lot of good coverage of Oroville dam as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LxWKaiZ5o4&t=2s
    I think he's an airline pilot for his day job; his Oroville spillway coverage drove me nuts. Having said that; this is an excellent presentation of the how, what and why of the Paradise tragedy.

    Striking how much of the forest in town remains standing and green; how the forest litter (houses) is reduced to ashes. Large lot and luck a house might survive, small lot and it's a goner. (Given the weather conditions)

    Also noticeable is the area to the east that was burned in a forest fire not too long ago, the forest there seems unscathed but the "light fuels" there quickly spread the Camp Fire to Paradise. Prescribed burn management wouldn't have helped Paradise much in this conflagration; it only takes 1 year for those light fuels to be back.

    That's a really clean Luscombe he's flying!
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    I'm in EDH. I wouldn't really call it high risk. But my agent told me there is likely chance they won't renew next year. Even after a 40% increase in home owners this year....

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    Regarding insurance I would expect many carriers will non renew or significantly increase premiums in the entire state. The company I work for (no I won't say who) had 1500 houses burn in the Camp and Malibu fires I don't know how much $$ was paid out but it's easy to figure dwelling coverage on an average size California home would be more than $350,000 throw in another $200k for belongings and you get some very large losses. Most policies I write in California have low premiums compared to the mid west (think lots of hail and wind claims) my little 1,000 sq foot house in Colorado is at $860 that's higher than most Cali policies I write for homes larger than mine.

    After the San Diego County fires (sometime before 2010) we stopped writing in California for 2 or 3 years. Think about it you pay say $1000 a year for home insurance for 12 years. That's $12k the insurance company can invest and gain interest. Your house burns down and they pay out $550,000 for the structure and belongings plus living expenses. How many years would you have to pay $1000 a year to pay off 1 house burning down?

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    I don't feel bad when insurance companies have to pay out. If they want to gamble with money, then they must accept the losses as well as the wins. And they hedge their bets by insuring more low-risk situations than high-risk.
    And I've never heard one insurance rep complain about all of the money they received from people who never took a payout.

    But a good gambler will do what they can to minimize losses. Refusing to take a bet that has a high risk of loss is how they do it. "Your house is on a cliff? We're not taking the bet. Or, we are going to charge you a very high premium to do so"
    ""You're 17, just got a license, and Daddy bought you a Porsche? Your premium will be $18,000 per year" "You're 81, have cancer and want a million dollar life insurance policy? Your premium will be $329,000 per year


    With insurance, high-risk coverage and payouts are reflected in increased costs for EVERYONE.
    If you want to build/own in a high-risk area, have at it. Just don't expect the low-risk folks to pony up for your decision. You can either self-insure, or pay a high enough premium that the risk doesn't get passed on to other people.
    Ya' place yer bet and ya' takes yer chances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by robbnj View Post
    I don't feel bad when insurance companies have to pay out. If they want to gamble with money, then they must accept the losses as well as the wins. And they hedge their bets by insuring more low-risk situations than high-risk.
    And I've never heard one insurance rep complain about all of the money they received from people who never took a payout.

    But a good gambler will do what they can to minimize losses. Refusing to take a bet that has a high risk of loss is how they do it. "Your house is on a cliff? We're not taking the bet. Or, we are going to charge you a very high premium to do so"
    ""You're 17, just got a license, and Daddy bought you a Porsche? Your premium will be $18,000 per year" "You're 81, have cancer and want a million dollar life insurance policy? Your premium will be $329,000 per year


    With insurance, high-risk coverage and payouts are reflected in increased costs for EVERYONE.
    If you want to build/own in a high-risk area, have at it. Just don't expect the low-risk folks to pony up for your decision. You can either self-insure, or pay a high enough premium that the risk doesn't get passed on to other people.
    Ya' place yer bet and ya' takes yer chances.
    In this scenario I should be getting nearly free health insurance, not paying nearly 25% of my take home pay for someone with zero health issues.....


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    Quote Originally Posted by seanallan View Post
    In this scenario I should be getting nearly free health insurance, not paying nearly 25% of my take home pay for someone with zero health issues.....


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    I think every American (and the world in general) should have free health insurance and a free college education. What's bankrupting the average American are costs with health issues (often times their children) and sending their kids to college. Ironcially, tax dollars have already paid for the basic infrastructure of both of these 'costs.'

  42. #142
    I'm really diggin it!
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    Insurance rates are going up a minimum of 60% next year to cover recent losses.


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  43. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanallan View Post
    In this scenario I should be getting nearly free health insurance, not paying nearly 25% of my take home pay for someone with zero health issues.....


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    BINGO
    Instead, we get to pay for all of the smokers and other high-risk (self-induced) policies out there.
    Wouldn't it be nice to get a significant refund for non-use of a policy?

  44. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbnj View Post
    BINGO
    Instead, we get to pay for all of the smokers and other high-risk (self-induced) policies out there.
    Wouldn't it be nice to get a significant refund for non-use of a policy?
    You can, cancel your health insurance and get a catastrophic health plan instead. But understand the risks in doing so.

  45. #145
    jms
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    Stories of similar victims

    My Favorite Peeps:

  46. #146
    middle ring single track
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    Quote Originally Posted by jms View Post
    That was intense. Fire'nado winds strong enough to move a dozer!
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

    Windows 10, destroying humanity one upgrade at a time.

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