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  1. #1
    wowarizona.com
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    OT: Monsoon Returning?

    Change in the weather…

    Sunrise over the western flanks of the Santa Catalina Mountains. From the left: Harris's Hawk on top of utility pole, foothills to Charouleau Gap, Samaniego Ridge leading up to the 'three peaks' (elevation 7127 ft).

    AUG3_mtbr_Panorama1.jpg

    The clouds portend change and today could be a nice stormy one!

    Photographed August 3, 2009 @ WowArizona.com
    Last edited by C.J.; 08-03-2009 at 08:17 AM.
    CJ
    WOW Arizona!

  2. #2
    wrecking crew
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    mmm....so far there hasn't been a monsoon this year where I am at, which pretty much pisses me off!
    ~~~

  3. #3
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    wow. great image CJ!
    b

  4. #4
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    Cool-blue Rhythm

    Quote Originally Posted by su.ling~
    mmm....so far there hasn't been a monsoon this year where I am at, which pretty much pisses me off!
    Agreed I love the Monsoon season!

    Great photo as usual!
    Currently at Mayo Clinic being tested for a kidney transplant. Donors welcome.

  5. #5
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    It actually rained here at 1am or something, but it's been very week overall. If the monsoon does start up again, Tuscon will experience it first.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

  6. #6
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    Not likely soon

    Checking the NWS forecasts and warnings:
    AZ Forecast Discussion--
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

    FXUS65 KFGZ 031630
    AFDFGZ

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
    930 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
    SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A
    RESULT...EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN
    INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARD THE END OF
    THE WEEK...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
    WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

    &&

    .DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
    ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE UP 4 TO 10
    DEGREES AT MOST REPORTING STATIONS SINCE YESTERDAY. 12Z FGZ
    SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES A SLIGHT EROSION ON THE CAP BETWEEN
    400-500MBS...BUT THE PSR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES LITTLE CHANGE OVER
    THE PAST 24HRS. GIVEN THESE DATA...A SLIGHT UPSWING IN THE
    CONVECTION TODAY IS ON ORDER...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
    MOGOLLON RIM. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY TO
    THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH...BUT DO NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR THE
    MAINTENANCE OF STORMS TOO FAR NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
    THE RIM OR WHITE MOUNTINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE
    TREND...AND AS SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

    PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE IMPACT THE STRONG TROUGH
    CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
    EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH
    COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
    AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

    .PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
    CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
    ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MORNING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
    PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB FROM WHAT WAS
    OCCURRING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WE CAN EXPECT A GREATER
    CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GRADUAL
    MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
    DAYS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH
    MID-WEEK.

    BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED IN
    THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS AS A WEST COAST DISTURBANCE MOVES
    INLAND. AS SUCH...A DRIER...WINDIER...AND A BIT COOLER SCENARIO
    APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN TIME FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

    Current warnings:
    -- For Phoenix area;
    ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY...

    THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY
    FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MARICOPA AND NORTHWEST PINAL
    COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

    STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
    YEAR
    WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

    HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
    AUGUST TODAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
    SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL RANGE FROM 109 TO NEAR 112 DEGREES.
    ADDITIONALLY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
    HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY LOWERING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN
    THE WARMEST URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT EVEN MORE
    OPPRESSIVE.

    --- For the rest of the state
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
    948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    AZZ004>018-037>040-040715-
    KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
    COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
    NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
    CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
    WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
    NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
    OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
    NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
    948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
    ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
    CENTRAL ARIZONA.

    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
    EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
    WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
    MIDWEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
    LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH UNUSUALLY DRY
    WEATHER FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

    Last edited by ShortBusJames; 08-03-2009 at 11:08 AM.
    Now I DRIVE the short bus!!


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  7. #7
    wowarizona.com
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    It STORMED last night…

    We had a great storm last night. Wind, thunder, lightning and (drums, please…) RAIN!!! Enough rain that the Rain Lillys (Zephranthes sp.) are blooming this morning.

    zephranthes_small.jpg

    We received over .15 inches precipitation in last night's storm. The Santa Catalina Mountain western flanks should be nice and dust free for a couple of days. Enjoy the trails.
    Quote Originally Posted by ShortBusJames
    Checking the NWS forecasts and warnings:
    AZ Forecast Discussion--
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

    FXUS65 KFGZ 031630
    AFDFGZ

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
    930 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
    SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A
    RESULT...EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN
    INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARD THE END OF
    THE WEEK...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
    WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

    &&

    .DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
    ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE UP 4 TO 10
    DEGREES AT MOST REPORTING STATIONS SINCE YESTERDAY. 12Z FGZ
    SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES A SLIGHT EROSION ON THE CAP BETWEEN
    400-500MBS...BUT THE PSR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES LITTLE CHANGE OVER
    THE PAST 24HRS. GIVEN THESE DATA...A SLIGHT UPSWING IN THE
    CONVECTION TODAY IS ON ORDER...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
    MOGOLLON RIM. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY TO
    THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH...BUT DO NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR THE
    MAINTENANCE OF STORMS TOO FAR NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
    THE RIM OR WHITE MOUNTINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE
    TREND...AND AS SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

    PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE IMPACT THE STRONG TROUGH
    CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
    EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH
    COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
    AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

    .PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
    CENTERED NEAR NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
    ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MORNING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
    PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB FROM WHAT WAS
    OCCURRING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WE CAN EXPECT A GREATER
    CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GRADUAL
    MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
    DAYS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH
    MID-WEEK.

    BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED IN
    THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS AS A WEST COAST DISTURBANCE MOVES
    INLAND. AS SUCH...A DRIER...WINDIER...AND A BIT COOLER SCENARIO
    APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN TIME FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

    Current warnings:
    -- For Phoenix area;
    ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY...

    THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY
    FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MARICOPA AND NORTHWEST PINAL
    COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

    STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
    YEAR
    WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

    HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
    AUGUST TODAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
    SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL RANGE FROM 109 TO NEAR 112 DEGREES.
    ADDITIONALLY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
    HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY LOWERING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN
    THE WARMEST URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT EVEN MORE
    OPPRESSIVE.

    --- For the rest of the state
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
    948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    AZZ004>018-037>040-040715-
    KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
    COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
    NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
    CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
    LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
    WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
    NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
    OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
    NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
    948 AM MST MON AUG 3 2009

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
    ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
    CENTRAL ARIZONA.

    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
    EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
    WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
    MIDWEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
    LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH UNUSUALLY DRY
    WEATHER FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

    CJ
    WOW Arizona!

  8. #8
    Elitest thrill junkie
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    Woke up to overcast and light rain here. While it is supposed to be dry this weekend, it's also supposed to be cooler. Unfortunately I'll be in NorCal, but a high temp of 81 doesn't sound too bad to me.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

  9. #9
    Over the Hill
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayem
    . Unfortunately I'll be in NorCal,
    Yep riding near Lake Tahoe does suck.....

    Dean

  10. #10
    livin' the dream......
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    Had about 5 rain drops on the window driving down the SR 51 at 4:30 this morning......I want the monsoon back!

  11. #11
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    It was all clouded up here and raining 2hrs ago when we took off, but while flying it dried up big time and doesn't look like we'll get any more rain today.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

  12. #12
    wowarizona.com
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    It POURED last night, prompting urban small stream flood warning from the NWS!!! It is overcast with intermittent drops, right now.
    CJ
    WOW Arizona!

  13. #13
    livin' the dream......
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    Cloudy with just a few patched of blue sky in the Valley. FIngers remain crossed!

  14. #14
    My other ride is your mom
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    saw two cloud to ground lighnting strikes in Gilbert between 810 and 815 this morning....sprinkles, but nothing more at Baseline and Country Club




  15. #15
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    we had some nice thunder and sprinkles here in tempe around 8am. but now it is sunny and hot

  16. #16
    oh Lucky me
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    yeah N Phx, driving from I17 & 101 to Carefree Highway & 7th st this AM i had to think about turning the windshield wipers on for a minute, then i came to my senses, rolled the window down and stuck my head out

    haha, hopefully we will see more of this?
    ...Dying is the easy part, its living that's the challenge...

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exodus11
    yeah N Phx, driving from I17 & 101 to Carefree Highway & 7th st this AM i had to think about turning the windshield wipers on for a minute, then i came to my senses, rolled the window down and stuck my head out

    haha, hopefully we will see more of this?
    Not for a while

    Unofficial Weather Forecast for the Prescott Area:

    Thursday evening: Mostly clear and windy. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph in some areas.

    Friday – Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. Southwest to west wind 5 to 15 mph. Morning lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s.

    Sunday – Monday: Sunny. Light south to southwest wind 5-10 mph. Morning low in the upper 50s. High in the upper 80s to near 90.

    Tuesday – Thursday: Becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy each afternoon with a gradually increasing chance of high-based showers or thunderstorms. Morning lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.

    Weather discussion:

    An unseasonably strong Pacific storm system moving across the Great Basin has brought windy conditions across Arizona and produced severe thunderstorms in the northern Rockies today. The atmosphere has dried out significantly, and one should be concerned about forest fire potential this afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona with unusually windy and dry conditions for this time of year.



    It does not appear that we will have any possibility of precipitation until about the middle of next week when high pressure rebuilds over New Mexico and brings southerly wind back to Arizona and monsoon moisture will gradually return.



    C. James (our University's in-house meterologist)
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

  18. #18
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    Looks like it's the year of the Non-soons.

  19. #19
    My other ride is your mom
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    crappola....this does not bode well for our AZ ski season...time to buy up some 155cm olin's and burn them for Ullr......oh yeah....this is happening....I'm already thinking that way......




  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maadjurguer
    crappola....this does not bode well for our AZ ski season...time to buy up some 155cm olin's and burn them for Ullr......oh yeah....this is happening....I'm already thinking that way......
    I'm feeling as though you may be right, seems that we are due for a dry winter. At least we are in AZ. and when it doesn't snow there are always so many other cool things to do and we will be that much closer to a repeat of 05! I look forward to seeing the Inner Basin filled in like that again. It may be the Indian spirits angry with the courts decision on snowmaking? Oh well, Mother Nature is gonna do what she wants regardless.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona
    I'm feeling as though you may be right, seems that we are due for a dry winter. At least we are in AZ. and when it doesn't snow there are always so many other cool things to do and we will be that much closer to a repeat of 05! I look forward to seeing the Inner Basin filled in like that again. It may be the Indian spirits angry with the courts decision on snowmaking? Oh well, Mother Nature is gonna do what she wants regardless.
    I prefer to think that we are overdue for a wet winter. Besides, what happens during the monsoon thunderstorm season has absolutely no correlation with precipation patterns the following winter.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman
    I prefer to think that we are overdue for a wet winter. Besides, what happens during the monsoon thunderstorm season has absolutely no correlation with precipation patterns the following winter.
    Just a feeling, I get em every year around this time, I'm not buying a pass this year tho for sure because of this inner voice. I always listen to it and it usually proves right, but I may be wrong, hopefully I am.

  23. #23
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    They are also seeing El Niño pop up early this year (and supposed to last through well into 2010) which tends to bode well for pulling the jet stream down farther south and bringing us a wetter winter than normal. Then again, you know how accurate long range forecasting can be.

  24. #24
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    Get used to global warming and the drastic changes it brings.
    -- Evil Patrick

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    The trail...shall set you free.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evil Patrick
    Get used to global warming and the drastic changes it brings.
    I think the term 'global warming' is kind of a misnomer. When you say 'global warming' to others that don't beleive it exists, they tend to come back and say "well, it snowed 10 feet the other day so boo hoo... there is no global warming blah blah". One could say similar about the AZ winter the past 2 seasons. We have had above average snowfall 2 seasons in a row so a lot of people think that global warming is bull.

    What I like to tell these folks is that we are having some sort of climate change. It is known that the temperature in the globe has warmed up by a few degrees over the last century but that is imperceptible to everyone. Weather systems and climates are drastically affected by very small changes which is why forecasting weather is such a difficult thing to do. As a result of this small increase in global temperatures (and ocean temperatures), the weather and climates are radically changing and are acting more and more out of their 'normal' and 'historical' distribution for what we think is typical for a particular region. No doubt the Southwest has seen this in terms of more extreme weather such as hotter summer and cooler, more wet winters in recent years. Other locations are definitely seeing the change more rapidly. The poles are a prime example of this... you can see glaciers retreating where they once stood for ages, tundra has been melting away at an alarming rate which feeds trapped CO2 in the atmosphere which in turn continues to raise the global temperatures (a very bad positive feedback loop which may be precipitating the point of no return).

    All in all, I am a firm believer that we are screwing up the planet for most of the current animals and humans that live here but it doesn't matter. As George Carlin once said in one of my favorite bits: "The planet will be fine, it's the people that are f**ked!!!" Earth will go on being what it is and we will just have to get accustomed and adapt. At some point, it will probably do away with the human race for all we know.

    Or better yet, for all we know, this may just be a natural increase in global temperatures that the Earth has always gone through and we haven't been around long enough to document it. I'd prefer to err on the side of caution and actually take initiative to stop blatant polution but that's my opinion. Remember, all of that oil deep in the ground was once on the surface as dead, decaying matter which absorbed plenty of carbon out of the atmosphere millions of years ago and made the planet what it is today and here we are burning it off and releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere... it only make sense that we are seeing these changes.

    /rant

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evil Patrick
    Get used to global warming and the drastic changes it brings.
    Global warming is real but the long-term effect on precipation patterns in the southwest is not clear. Temperature yes. Some ski areas, esp in the eruopean Alps will see more precip fall as rain.

    In regards to the AZ Snowbowl, it has a base at 9000' so all that reclaimed water will be falling as white stuff for decades to come

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman
    Global warming is real but the long-term effect on precipation patterns in the southwest is not clear. Temperature yes. Some ski areas, esp in the eruopean Alps will see more precip fall as rain.

    In regards to the AZ Snowbowl, it has a base at 9000' so all that reclaimed water will be falling as white stuff for decades to come

    Generally, the current prediction models say the SW US will be much drier. That will mean ecosystem shifts in the more arid direction, more forest fires, more invasive species. Also, it's generally predicted that our precipitation will become more extreme, with fewer but more violent events replacing less intense more frequent ones. That means less infiltration, more runoff, and more erosion.

  28. #28
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    That and the heat-island effect in Phoenix will continue to increase, meaning every year it's going to be hotter and hotter. The only way to stop it is to stop building developments in Queen Creek, Cave Creek, Casa Grande, and out to the West. The further that the empire expands, the hotter the center and all of it becomes. This isn't something that is usually shared with prospective home-owners or those looking to move, but it's real and it keeps going.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

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  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayem
    That and the heat-island effect in Phoenix will continue to increase, meaning every year it's going to be hotter and hotter. The only way to stop it is to stop building developments in Queen Creek, Cave Creek, Casa Grande, and out to the West. The further that the empire expands, the hotter the center and all of it becomes. This isn't something that is usually shared with prospective home-owners or those looking to move, but it's real and it keeps going.
    This really all boils down to one problem, population. We are overpopulating this world and its ability to provide. People need to stop having 3+ children families.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by justinb
    Generally, the current prediction models say the SW US will be much drier. That will mean ecosystem shifts in the more arid direction, more forest fires, more invasive species. Also, it's generally predicted that our precipitation will become more extreme, with fewer but more violent events replacing less intense more frequent ones. That means less infiltration, more runoff, and more erosion.
    Maybe so, but citing a newspaper article doesn't make it fact. Although the source in the article you linked above is certainly a reputable scientist. My point is that meteorologists have a hard enough time predicting the weather two months out, much less two days. Models that predict long-term trends (ie., what's going to happen to the southwest in the next 100 years, etc) are based on limited empirical data. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but we also need to temper the global warming hysteria with a healthy dose of scientific objectivity.

    Some excellent commentary from a weather wonker on GW as well as global cooling can be found here:
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...tstamp=&page=2

    Some interesting opposing views:
    http://www.examiner.com/x-13886-New-...global-warming
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/So...NY_Mar2_08.pdf
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/sc...spot.html?_r=3

    IMO, it's just not so cut and dry that the sw is gonna continue to dry up. The planet could be overdue for the next ice age. Yellowstone is gonna blow one of these days. As for the decision to buy a ski pass next season, El Nino is alive and brewing up quite nicely in the equatorial eastern Pacific

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman
    Maybe so, but citing a newspaper article doesn't make it fact. Although the source in the article you linked above is certainly a reputable scientist. My point is that meteorologists have a hard enough time predicting the weather two months out, much less two days. Models that predict long-term trends (ie., what's going to happen to the southwest in the next 100 years, etc) are based on limited empirical data. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but we also need to temper the global warming hysteria with a healthy dose of scientific objectivity.

    Some excellent commentary from a weather wonker on GW as well as global cooling can be found here:
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...tstamp=&page=2

    Some interesting opposing views:
    http://www.examiner.com/x-13886-New-...global-warming
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/So...NY_Mar2_08.pdf
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/sc...spot.html?_r=3

    IMO, it's just not so cut and dry that the sw is gonna continue to dry up. The planet could be overdue for the next ice age. Yellowstone is gonna blow one of these days. As for the decision to buy a ski pass next season, El Nino is alive and brewing up quite nicely in the equatorial eastern Pacific


    Dr. Overpeck is joint appointed in my department. I cited the newspaper article because it's the simplest coherent explanation of a number of his works. I could have (and probably should have) cited any of a number of peer reviewed pubs, but none of them contain the simple model of SW drought persistence stated as coherently as his statements in that article. Overpeck's model definitely predicts further drying for the SW US. The only question is major drought or minor drought.

    I agree that there are several competing views and that any climate model contains so many variables that uncertainty will almost always be very large, and increase exponentially with longer predicted time scales. Much of the work being done currently is based on tree rings, trapped gas in deep ice cores, etc. These paleoclimate data help take a lot of the uncertainties out, but you are correct that they aren't ironclad, and their interpretation can be challenging.

    As a scientist, I absolutely agree on the need for greater objectivity. One of the worst things that ever happened to the climate change debate is that it became politicized.

    Thanks for the links. They'll provide great morning reading.

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    Morningstar Ski Tours

    Quote Originally Posted by Maadjurguer
    crappola....this does not bode well for our AZ ski season...time to buy up some 155cm olin's and burn them for Ullr......oh yeah....this is happening....I'm already thinking that way......
    Tucson based the New Years trip is to Revelstoke, Canada, 5620' vert, bet they have snow this winter. They go to Las Lenas, Argentina, IN A WEEK!
    Arizona's skiing sucks anyway, untill there's better lifts in Flag, I go to Wolf Creek or Taos or fly to SLC. Sunrise is for beginners, Mt Lemmon has good snow 2-3 seasons a decade.
    agmtb

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    raising - yeah always the wrong people reproducing!!!

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona
    This really all boils down to one problem, population. We are overpopulating this world and its ability to provide. People need to stop having 3+ children families.
    I think you flaming liberals should start this policy and voluntarily lead by example. After all, Europe sure has an optimistic future of sustaining it's current population........

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PliOD...layer_embedded
    Making Milk by Day, Beer by Night

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by tls36
    raising - yeah always the wrong people reproducing!!!
    HAHA! No doubt. Back to the subject, It just dumped up here in the high country! Best conditions in weeks, get out and ride!

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