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  1. #1
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    High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??

    what, man, it's going to be an interesting race...

  2. #2
    Ahhh the pain....
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    I predict epic mud, wind, and torrential downpours.

  3. #3
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    I don't know, better than sunny and hot... I did that Old Fashioned mt race last summer in the rain and I loved it... But then again it wasn't in the 40's

  4. #4
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    that would be way better than epic raging wildfires early this season. Bring on the rain, chilly temps, and legwarmers. Dehydration/cramps shouldn't be so bad this year

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobZona View Post
    that would be way better than epic raging wildfires early this season. Bring on the rain, chilly temps, and legwarmers. Dehydration/cramps shouldn't be so bad this year
    Yeah I don't mean it to be a negative... "interesting" means positive for some, and negative for others...

    mud is good.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by MtbAZ44 View Post
    what, man, it's going to be an interesting race...
    *headslap*

    Rule No. 1 of MTBR, don't comment about weather before a race (especially if you're not doing the damn race), else you'll face the wrath of ST/CO!!!!!!!!!!
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  7. #7
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    I predict 80% chance that weather prediction will change on Friday.

  8. #8
    Need more cowbell
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    The weather gods thought it was Old Pueblo week.

  9. #9
    Always in the wrong gear
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    The course could use some precipitation from what I saw this week, but what do I know. I was hoping it would rain before sat.
    Salsa El Mariachi SS

    Flat Tire Bike Shop, Cave Creek, AZ

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casual Observer View Post
    *headslap*

    Rule No. 1 of MTBR, don't comment about weather before a race (especially if you're not doing the damn race), else you'll face the wrath of ST/CO!!!!!!!!!!
    Shouldn't you be writing your first draft of an A/C thread or something?

    Wow, this potential weather change must screw up your plans for your camelback...
    “Think of bicycles as rideable art that can just about save the world.”
-Grant Petersen

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casual Observer View Post
    *headslap*

    Rule No. 1 of MTBR, don't comment about weather before a race (especially if you're not doing the damn race), else you'll face the wrath of ST/CO!!!!!!!!!!
    I could use some negative rep...

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by tysonnemb View Post
    Shouldn't you be writing your first draft of an A/C thread or something?

    Wow, this potential weather change must screw up your plans for your camelback...
    Actually, I'm going to put a funnel in my Camelbak opening. Problem solved!!!!!
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  13. #13
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    Actually my predictions always come out wrong...so y'all are in good hands.

  14. #14
    How much further ???
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    I've seen the Saturday high for Phoenix vary from 81 to 74 degrees depending on the news source. Meteorologists must be the only job where guessing and being consistently wrong is perfectly acceptable.
    “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did." Mark Twain

  15. #15
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    Oh well my bike is due for a complete breakdown, wash and lubing anyway.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by MtbAZ44 View Post
    I don't know, better than sunny and hot... I did that Old Fashioned mt race last summer in the rain and I loved it... But then again it wasn't in the 40's
    That was epic suck. I was fine while I was moving, but as soon as I crossed the line and stopped, I pretty much shut down. I think I had the beginnings of hypothermia creeping up on me.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by metalaficionado View Post
    I predict 80% chance that weather prediction will change on Friday.
    Yeah. I see 46High / 32Low with 30% chance of rain. Scattered T-storms. Different from you 80%.

    And Bart is spot on... We won't know the weather till Friday. The storm could roll in friday or wait till sunday. Or just be alot weaker than expected. I will just watch and expect anything from 70F an sunday to cold and rain. Heck if it rains I might do better if all the rest of the riders give up. I will not give up. Conditions may slow me down, but I will not give up.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eazy_E View Post
    That was epic suck. I was fine while I was moving, but as soon as I crossed the line and stopped, I pretty much shut down. I think I had the beginnings of hypothermia creeping up on me.
    It was probably due to the stopping more than anything. I was fine, but when I stopped I got cold. Solution is to not stop and keep moving. Plus pack gear just in case. The way I see it this a long ride and I am looking at roughly 6hrs ride time in good conditions. Given how long I will be on course I will pack gear to deal with it.

    Hmm me thinks a show cap my be on my list of things to get. I remember DurtGurl from AES McDowells in 2012...
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  19. #19
    Give it a crank
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    And windy, it's going to be a windchillaxicating ride.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoePAz View Post
    Yeah. I see 46High / 32Low with 30% chance of rain. Scattered T-storms. Different from you 80%.

    And Bart is spot on... We won't know the weather till Friday. The storm could roll in friday or wait till sunday. Or just be alot weaker than expected. I will just watch and expect anything from 70F an sunday to cold and rain. Heck if it rains I might do better if all the rest of the riders give up. I will not give up. Conditions may slow me down, but I will not give up.

    Yeah I'm going off of weather underground (check what they say)... I failed to look at other sites before I posted... and you are correct weather channel, accuweather all have a more optimisitic forecast...

    like I said, whatever I predict or post is likely to not be true... don't ever take me to vegas and try to predict red/black on the roulette

  21. #21
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    Maxxis Ardents or Ikons for the rain / mud . Which you think is better for Saturdays conditions? I was planning on running my Ikons.....

    This is all payback for the great weather at Old Pueblo this year.

  22. #22
    Ahhh the pain....
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    It's gonna be like this...
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  23. #23
    livin' the dream......
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    I think the wunderground.com forecasts are usually pretty good. I think I may take the shower curtain from my hotel room, cut a hole in it for a poncho and go for it!!

    Does the shower cap go under the helmet, or on top of it??
    Less f*cks to give every passing day, use them well. - geraldooka

  24. #24
    Ahhh the pain....
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    Way more "pro" to wear it over your hair net, but under your helmet.

  25. #25
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    weather forecast updated at 330PM from nws

    AZZ008-241100-
    YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK
    330 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

    .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 33 TO 41. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
    WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
    VARIABLE.
    .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 69 TO 75. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
    WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
    IN THE AFTERNOON.
    .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38 TO 46. SOUTHWEST WINDS
    15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN
    THE MORNING.
    .FRIDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 67 TO 73. LIGHT AND
    VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
    35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
    .FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    LOWS 37 TO 43. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
    40 MPH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 50 PERCENT.
    .SATURDAY...BREEZY. MUCH COOLER. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...
    THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 49. CHANCE OF
    PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
    .SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 29 TO 35. CHANCE
    OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
    .SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 58 TO 64. LOWS
    30 TO 40.
    .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS 66 TO 76. LOWS 34 TO 44.
    .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 39 TO 47. HIGHS
    70 TO 77.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by MtbAZ44 View Post
    THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
    LOLOLOLOLO......you ****ing idiots!!!!!!!!!!!
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  27. #27
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    stop

  28. #28
    Meatbomb
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    Nice play there CO..... Not.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by tjkm View Post
    Does the shower cap go under the helmet, or on top of it??
    One of the few finishers of the 2012 McDowell AES race wore a shower cap (procured at the last minute from Bashas) over her helmet. She said it worked great. And it looked cool.

  30. #30
    livin' the dream......
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raybum View Post
    Way more "pro" to wear it over your hair net, but under your helmet.
    Word. I hope it matches my kit.
    Less f*cks to give every passing day, use them well. - geraldooka

  31. #31
    Meatbomb
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    The potato goes in the front.

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by dtownmtb View Post
    One of the few finishers of the 2012 McDowell AES race wore a shower cap (procured at the last minute from Bashas) over her helmet. She said it worked great. And it looked cool.
    That was exactly my idea.... I remember that it seemed like gold for event.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  33. #33
    Always in the wrong gear
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    Oh this is shaping up nicely. I keep telling myself it's going to change five more times before Saturday.
    Salsa El Mariachi SS

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  34. #34
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    Latest Hourly Forecast I see is rain starting Late Friday night, but stopping at 70 Saturday. Will be 40F and feel like 32 with 15 mph wind.

    Of course things will change so who knows what will happen by then. All you need a few hour acceleration or delay in the storm it will change what happens at race time.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  35. #35
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    So what the hell do we do now?????

  36. #36
    Meatbomb
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    Get wet and cold.

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phillbo View Post
    Get wet and cold.
    +1

    I'll be there and planning to ride, I do wonder if some people are going to bail though.
    ONE SHOX, ONE GEAR, LOTS of FUN! www.TrailFu.com My Rides

  38. #38
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    Everyone's got to chill.

    Wake up in am and decide depending on current conditions and mood.

    Do I want to race in rain and snow or am I going to drive up to Caduceus Cellars and hang with Maynard while sipping on some Judith.

  39. #39
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    From the NWS as of 3:30 pm Thursday.

    Total precipitation amounts look to be in the
    0.25 to 0.50 inch range with locally higher amounts. Weak
    instability may lead to a few thunderstorms as well...and with a
    strong vertical shear profile a severe storm cannot be ruled out. Snow
    levels will fall rapidly along and behind the front. The areas
    most likely to be affected by accumulating snowfall will be the
    Mogollon Rim...Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau where 2 to 5 inches
    are possible above 6000 feet. The cold air bottoms out over
    Yavapai County where elevations down to 5500 feet could see some
    snow mixing in with rain. Given the fact that snow begins before
    daytime heating...we're confident in accumulating snow for the
    above mentioned areas
    but are less confident across the higher
    elevations of eastern Arizona. Daytime temperatures should rise enough
    during the day Saturday for some melting to occur.

    Maybe I should ride my SS.

  40. #40
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    I've raced this event since 2004 and dealt with the heat when it was in May. other than that the weather has always been great. I think it's time we get some Old Pueblo style crazy weather for a change. All I can hope for now is that the weather is so nasty that every rider that's faster than me quits. Ha!
    Good luck everyone and keep in mind that even on race day the weather could look bad in the morning but turn out great by mid-ride. This is my last year doing it and I am finishing it off with the 50 miler SS. It's going to hurt so good.
    "Not drinking is the Single Speed World Championships version of doping" -Jacquie Phelan

    E-bikes are Mountain Mopeds

  41. #41
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    Latest Reports show rain starting Early Saturday morning (3am or so) and will rain all morning letting off about noon.


    The storm looks short, but right at race time. 40F at 50proof start. If the rain is light it maybe just enough to keep the dust down and possibly a wind blow us up out of skull valley. It will be cold though.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  42. #42
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    I am not racing, but if I was I dont think the rain or the cold would bother me if I dressed for it .... I don't know how the mud is around Prescott... but that is what I would be most worried about...

  43. #43
    How much further ???
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    Sounds miserable. Ill be riding in upper 70's/ low 80's in Phoenix on open trails with no bottlenecks for free. Good luck everyone.
    “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did." Mark Twain

  44. #44
    Ahhh the pain....
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    Quote Originally Posted by douger-1 View Post
    sounds miserable. Ill be riding in upper 70's/ low 80's in phoenix on open trails with no bottlenecks for free. good luck everyone.
    ^^ +1e6

  45. #45
    Meatbomb
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    "In the high country, snow levels will drop to about 5,500 feet and 3-5 inches of snow is possible above 6,000 feet."

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phillbo View Post
    "In the high country, snow levels will drop to about 5,500 feet and 3-5 inches of snow is possible above 6,000 feet."
    Fatbike approved
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  47. #47
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    Since most of the race is on forest service roads that are pretty well hard packed, the rain shouldn't cause too much mud issues. The amount of rain and temp have been dropping/climbing respectively for the last few hours so we might get a bit of relief.

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhxBenK View Post
    Since most of the race is on forest service roads that are pretty well hard packed, the rain shouldn't cause too much mud issues. The amount of rain and temp have been dropping/climbing respectively for the last few hours so we might get a bit of relief.
    That said, the race organizers actually have some contingency plans in place to avoid any major damage.
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casual Observer View Post
    That said, the race organizers actually have some contingency plans in place to avoid any major damage.
    I hope that does not mean taking away the fun parts and having us all roll back on a paved road.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  50. #50
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    Waterbar descent should be fun in rain.

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoePAz View Post
    I hope that does not mean taking away the fun parts and having us all roll back on a paved road.
    Who knows. But can you imagine the damage 2000 racers can do riding on those wet trails. The stuff with all the water bars might not look pretty...
    Nobody gives a s#$t you singlespeed.

  52. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by dtownmtb View Post
    One of the few finishers of the 2012 McDowell AES race wore a shower cap (procured at the last minute from Bashas) over her helmet. She said it worked great. And it looked cool.
    It may not match my kit, but it is "enduro blue"...

    High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-img-20140425-00353.jpg
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  53. #53
    Ahhh the pain....
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    Joe, that's SO enduro.

  54. #54
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    you think a hotel shower cap will fit over a helmet?

  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by metalaficionado View Post
    you think a hotel shower cap will fit over a helmet?
    Do it!

  56. #56
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    So the word is that EPIC is planning re-routes bypassing the singletrack in event of rain...

  57. #57
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    quite a bit of back pedaling (pun intended) on the rain forecast... I have a feeling it's another one of those hyped up storms that don't do $hit...

  58. #58
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    And it's snowing...

  59. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by MtbAZ44 View Post
    quite a bit of back pedaling (pun intended) on the rain forecast... I have a feeling it's another one of those hyped up storms that don't do $hit...

    Raining

  60. #60
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    It looked like a blizzard there for a while, they had riders rescued due to hypothermia risk.

  61. #61
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    So, how was the weather?

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  62. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by MtbAZ44 View Post
    quite a bit of back pedaling (pun intended) on the rain forecast... I have a feeling it's another one of those hyped up storms that don't do $hit...

    Yeah it was clear and sunny at Skull Valley.

    However the way there... Light rain at 7am line up time. Rain got heavy at the start. By the time we got the single track the rain was getting a bit less and the ground was not bad. Then as we climbed the rain turned to snow. At one point near the top of 48 the slow was being blown up the south side of the mtn. The shifters got packed with snow. The descent down 260 was not bad for a bit then it got kind of soupy about 2/3 of the way down. Alot of riders bailed at junction of 260 and FR53. However from there the worst was over. The climb to SV Junction was rain free and only a little wet. However by the time I went down to SV I was hit by 30 mph wind and sleet right in my face. However after a few miles it stopped and it was dry and sunny in Skull Valley when I got there at 10:30. The ride back was mostly rain/snow free, but there were a few spots where there was some spinkes of rain/sleet/snow.

    BTW the shower cap worked perfectly. I finished in 5:58. 8 min behind my 5:50 target time. Not bad considering the conditions and nasty chain suck I was suffering from SV all the way back.

    The 25 start was pushed back from 9:30 to 12:00 and they cut the course short. I think they went all the way up copper basin road as they said the were not going to the aid station at the SV cut off. I am sure glad I did the 50. "Epic" this ride was.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  63. #63
    Ahhh the pain....
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    but was it "enduro"?

  64. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raybum View Post
    but was it "enduro"?
    No but it was "endurance".
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  65. #65
    Elitest thrill junkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raybum View Post
    but was it "enduro"?
    And will there be a separate awards ceremony for KOM?
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

  66. #66
    Beer Drnkr w/bike problem
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    Holy crap, watch what you wish for! we got punished for sure and it was fricking great. Best event ever, I feel sorry for those who signed up for the 25. It hurt something bad but I did finish.
    "Not drinking is the Single Speed World Championships version of doping" -Jacquie Phelan

    E-bikes are Mountain Mopeds

  67. #67
    Got a suspension fork
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    Quote Originally Posted by metalaficionado View Post
    Waterbar descent should be fun in rain.
    Good call Bart, but it was SNOW on the water bars, not water. Even being cautious and trying to hit all those bars square, I damned near had a hard fall on one of them, my front just slid sideways off the bar and took me off course. Luckily I got my foot down before I went down. It was certainly an adventure.

    The really cool thing for me about the 50 was that I would never have signed up for it if I'd known what was in store, but being there in the middle of all that, I was determined to ride it out and not give in. So it was extra cool just finishing, even if I was way off the time I was expecting to achieve.
    ONE SHOX, ONE GEAR, LOTS of FUN! www.TrailFu.com My Rides

  68. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by randyharris View Post
    Good call Bart, but it was SNOW on the water bars, not water. Even being cautious and trying to hit all those bars square, I damned near had a hard fall on one of them, my front just slid sideways off the bar and took me off course. Luckily I got my foot down before I went down. It was certainly an adventure.

    The really cool thing for me about the 50 was that I would never have signed up for it if I'd known what was in store, but being there in the middle of all that, I was determined to ride it out and not give in. So it was extra cool just finishing, even if I was way off the time I was expecting to achieve.

    I can totally agree with this, I was way way behind what I had planned to finish at, but that was after basically realizing I was in hypothermia and shivering uncontrollably and if I didn't keep moving I would be trucking it out with everyone else. So pedaling through it and finishing was way more an accomplishment for me than any other planned finish time.
    Though I will say when I was coming out of Skull Valley and couldn't figure out how to open my pack and get an asprin, I realized my mind had gone a bit loopy.

  69. #69
    Beer Drnkr w/bike problem
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    This is the downside to finishing, my BB is shot.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-mud.jpg  

    High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-mud-2.jpg  

    "Not drinking is the Single Speed World Championships version of doping" -Jacquie Phelan

    E-bikes are Mountain Mopeds

  70. #70
    mtbr member
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    ]Damn,
    That looks nasty. My bb seems fine after I washed the bike. cranks spun smoothly once I got some surface dirt out.

    My chain was toast though... But not big loss as it was worn down anyway. I did replace the wheels on my derailleur as those were junk. Not bad though as I had those parts in my stash. After cleaning, few new parts and adjustment the drive line seems fine. I do need to adjust the brakes again though.High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-img-20140427-00362.jpg
    High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-img-20140427-00363.jpg
    High of 47 F and 80% chance of rain ??-img-20140427-00364.jpg
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

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