# Thread: What kinds of average power would it take to do a sub 8 hour leadville100?

1. ## What kinds of average power would it take to do a sub 8 hour leadville100?

I'm curious in terms of FTP and race duration. Does anyone have any insight to this?

2. I've read that total vertical gain is 12,000 ft? Multiply that by combined rider and bike weight and you have a lower bound for how much work is required. Divide by 8 hours to get average power. But you also have to account for the fact that you can't produce as much power because of the altitude.

3. Originally Posted by flargle
I've read that total vertical gain is 12,000 ft? Multiply that by combined rider and bike weight and you have a lower bound for how much work is required. Divide by 8 hours to get average power. But you also have to account for the fact that you can't produce as much power because of the altitude.
you aren't accounting for distance, friction, or wind resistance

5. Originally Posted by Poncharelli
184 on my way down to 170...is it really that hard to get a watts/kg answer to have something definitive??

6. I would estimate 3.6 watts/kg AVG power, and 3.9 watts/kg NP. kg being just rider weight without gear.

7. Originally Posted by fsrftc
184 on my way down to 170...is it really that hard to get a watts/kg answer to have something definitive??

You tell us.... is it?

8. Originally Posted by NeverFree
You tell us.... is it?
I'll let you know next August.

9. Originally Posted by fsrftc
is it really that hard to get a watts/kg answer to have something definitive??
Yes, yes it is. But if you really want to try:
http://www.analyticcycling.com/

10. Originally Posted by fsrftc
you aren't accounting for distance, friction, or wind resistance
Those are relatively small when climbing steep grades, but I would divide by the expected time spent climbing, not the total time for the course.

11. Originally Posted by fsrftc
184 on my way down to 170...is it really that hard to get a watts/kg answer to have something definitive??

What percentage of male partipants achieved sub 8-hours?

Probably a correlation can be made of the percentage of those who achieved sub-8 hours, and the equivalent percentile of racers having XY Watt/kg.

I believe the median Watts/kg amongst most people who race, is about 3.5 Watt/kg (?). So if 50% of the racers achieved sub-8 hours, then you need to be greater than 3.5 Watts/kg.

This is a real poor correlation, but this is all I can think of. The best is to know someone who actually achieved sub-8 hours and their corresponding W/kg. I believe that's what you were hoping for in this post; for someone who did the race to speak up. But there's still so many other factors.........

12. Ask Lance or Dave .

13. Originally Posted by Poncharelli
What percentage of male partipants achieved sub 8-hours?

Probably a correlation can be made of the percentage of those who achieved sub-8 hours, and the equivalent percentile of racers having XY Watt/kg.
Looks like 19 out of the 889 men who finished on the men's side, so around 2.1%. Seems like that would give some pretty ridiculous average power numbers.

On the other hand, 125 did it in under 9 hours, which seems like a more reasonable goal, which would be 14% of the men's field.

14. This thread is totally awesome because when it's done I'll know exactly how much to train for Leadville.

15. Well, here's some more data for me and anyone watching this thread. While it doesn't tell you specifically about leadville, its does give you an idea of what it takes to podium in merely "average" 100 mile races at/near sea level.

Mark Fenner: 2 place - Fling 100, average power 200 watts, best weight (he doesn't say what he was on race day) 67 kg ~ 3 watts/kg average.

data acquired from his blog/web page: http://ftptraining.wordpress.com/

Jeremiah Bishop: Winner 2009 Mohican 100, average power 225, weight (not given but deduced) 68.6 kg (page states a 3.28 w/kg average for 225 watts [225/3.28=68.6)
http://www.saris.com/athletes/PermaL...56e5dfcb0.aspx

I don't think anyone would deny Jeremiah's capability of a sub 8 leadville.

Floyd Landis: Stage 17 tour "win" 281 watt average weighing 68kg = 4.12 w/kg and he got 7 hours in Leadville.

Jason Hilimire: showing that there is an approximate loss of 10% from road to mtn at the same HR
http://www.fascatcoaching.com/mtbpower.html

Athletic Performance Drop per Altitude: I can't find the data I looked at previously but its somewhere on the order of 1% per 1000 feet loss.

Putting all this together.....
using JB's 3.28 at near sea level output (add 10% for road training) = 3.608w/kg then factor in your altitude, for me I'm at 5000 feet, so factor at least a 5% loss = 3.608*.95 = 3.4276w/kg sustainable average on my ROAD bike.

Maybe I'm totally off base.....but it seams reasonable, anyone want to add some thoughts? I'm sure there's going to be at least a 5% factor one way or another due to unaccounted for variables.

16. Originally Posted by fsrftc
Well, here's some more data for me and anyone watching this thread. While it doesn't tell you specifically about leadville, its does give you an idea of what it takes to podium in merely "average" 100 mile races at/near sea level.

Mark Fenner: 2 place - Fling 100, average power 200 watts, best weight (he doesn't say what he was on race day) 67 kg ~ 3 watts/kg average.

data acquired from his blog/web page: http://ftptraining.wordpress.com/

Jeremiah Bishop: Winner 2009 Mohican 100, average power 225, weight (not given but deduced) 68.6 kg (page states a 3.28 w/kg average for 225 watts [225/3.28=68.6)
http://www.saris.com/athletes/PermaL...56e5dfcb0.aspx

I don't think anyone would deny Jeremiah's capability of a sub 8 leadville.

Floyd Landis: Stage 17 tour "win" 281 watt average weighing 68kg = 4.12 w/kg and he got 7 hours in Leadville.

Jason Hilimire: showing that there is an approximate loss of 10% from road to mtn at the same HR
http://www.fascatcoaching.com/mtbpower.html

Athletic Performance Drop per Altitude: I can't find the data I looked at previously but its somewhere on the order of 1% per 1000 feet loss.

Putting all this together.....
using JB's 3.28 at near sea level output (add 10% for road training) = 3.608w/kg then factor in your altitude, for me I'm at 5000 feet, so factor at least a 5% loss = 3.608*.95 = 3.4276w/kg sustainable average on my ROAD bike.

Maybe I'm totally off base.....but it seams reasonable, anyone want to add some thoughts? I'm sure there's going to be at least a 5% factor one way or another due to unaccounted for variables.
FTP and "average power during the race/stage" is 2 different things.

You wanted to know what FTP you need, right?

JB had a 3.28 during the race, but his FTP (1-hour power test) would have to be around 5 W/kg, I imagine. FTP is a 1-hour equivalent max test.

17. Originally Posted by Poncharelli
FTP and "average power during the race/stage" is 2 different things.

You wanted to know what FTP you need, right?

JB had a 3.28 during the race, but his FTP (1-hour power test) would have to be around 5 W/kg, I imagine. FTP is a 1-hour equivalent max test.
I asked for both " What kinds of average power would it take to do a sub 8 hour leadville100?
I'm curious in terms of FTP and race duration."

I'd also wager his 60 minute is north of 5

Road bike power and MTB power might vary, but if the athlete is spending enough time on the MTB, power will be the same. For shorter durations, say <15min intervals I can usually do better on my road bike, but my best NP numbers for 4hr have been on the MTB.

Does the race start and end at the same elevation? I added NP, because it does a good job of factoring all the down hill coasting.

If you look at Jeremiah's power file from Mohican, there were sustained times of high outputs that kind of surprised me considering the overall average watts. I would have thought avg watts to be higher considering the climbing power.. there were definitely long descents or sections of drafting. They were definitely pooring on the gas during the climbs, and it would be interesting to know NP from the event.

The avg's I suggested are based on Solo training ride files I have done, 50 miles, 6k-feet climbing.

19. ## Power

JB's threshold power is 380 watts. At least that's what he has put in TrainingPeaks, and I would assume it is accurate.

http://www.jeremiahbishop.com/blogge...oto-718373.bmp

(Take NP and divide by IF to get the threshold value put into WKO+. In this case, 267/0.703 = 380.)

It's hard to answer the question because yes, power off-road is around 10% lower than on the road, but it all depends on the terrain, surface, race tactics, etc.

It's worth noting that Floyd Landis rode training rides of 6 hours at 300 watts at 68 kg before the TdF. This was actually used in his legal defense to highlight that there was nothing inhuman about his S17 ride.

In any case, from what I've seen I would guess that if you can do 3.5 w/kg for 6 hours nonstop on the road, you'll go sub-8; if you can do 4+ w/kg for 6 hours nonstop, you'll be up with the leaders. I've never done Leadville, but from what I've seen and heard about the course being pretty smooth, maybe multiply these values by 0.95 (so assuming a 5% loss in power off road) to get an approximate value off-road.

20. Keep in mind that you FTP and HR will drop at altitude. I live at 5,000 ft and there is a noticeable drop in HR and FTP when you get up to 10,000+ ft....especially at race pace. I did Leadville 2 yrs ago....took me 8 hrs 2 minutes. Good enough for like 22nd overall.

Also as others have stated, body weight plays a huge role. I weigh in at around 167 lbs. I have done road training rides with Tom Danielson....he weighs like 130 lbs. When riding side by side, it will take me 290 watts to keep up with his 190 watt pace.

In reality, there is no magic wattage number to go sub-8.

21. Just strap a power meter on Armstrong's bike for next year and post the results. Not that hard people!

22. Originally Posted by KERKOVEJ
Keep in mind that you FTP and HR will drop at altitude. I live at 5,000 ft and there is a noticeable drop in HR and FTP when you get up to 10,000+ ft....especially at race pace. I did Leadville 2 yrs ago....took me 8 hrs 2 minutes. Good enough for like 22nd overall.

Also as others have stated, body weight plays a huge role. I weigh in at around 167 lbs. I have done road training rides with Tom Danielson....he weighs like 130 lbs. When riding side by side, it will take me 290 watts to keep up with his 190 watt pace.

In reality, there is no magic wattage number to go sub-8.

Since you've done the race near 8 hours, do you know what your FTP was that year? I tend to do well at higher altitude races.

and thanks for the info!

23. Originally Posted by fsrftc
Since you've done the race near 8 hours, do you know what your FTP was that year? I tend to do well at higher altitude races.

and thanks for the info!
According to my TP account it was roughly 290 watts.

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