Future Mountain Biking Trends
So, what do you think mountain bikes and mountain biking technology will be like 10 years or more from now? I predict the following:
- Carbon Fiber will migrate to lower price points. We will see Carbon on $500 bikes.
- 10 Speed drivetrains will also be seen or lower priced bicycles.
- Hydraulic brakes will finally be seen on $400 dollar bikes
- 27.5" and 29" bikes will decrease in sales thanks to a resurgence of interest in 26" bikes
- Fatbikes will be more popular than ever
- Fox and RockShox will finally come out with a decent budget minded fork
- Electronic shifting will still cost an arm and a leg
- MBA will still be testing 10K to 15K bikes
- People will still complain about MBA
- It will be impossible to find a bike with V-Brake mounts
- 12 speed cassettes will start being seen on high end bikes thanks to SRAM
- And Shimano will copy them, of course
- More and more trail systems will be built as communities embrace mountain biking
- Front derailleurs will only be post mount or e-type
- More and more bikes will come with just a single chainring
- All wheelsets will be tubeless
#1 30 Gold TK | SRAM Seems pretty budget to me, will be $200 on sale soon, if it isn't already.
Originally Posted by Kona0197
#2 Not going to happen, too much maintenance and aggravating installation for the non-dedicated rider.
My hope is that dedicated downhill doesn't loose popularity due to amazing all mountain bikes.
* Wireless shifting
*Wireless braking with ABS
*Lighter, cheaper e-bikes
I don't see fatbikes getting that popular. Once the novelty wears off, people will wake up to the fact that they're just slow, cumbersome, and expensive.
^^ Wrong. Fatbikes are easy to ride, confidence inspiring and they won't be heavy for much longer. In fact without the need for a cheap tanklike 6+ pound steel stanchion fork they are already lighter than that $600 entry level beast. Within a year we will be seeing really good fatbikes at retail prices approaching that $600 mark and within 3 years I predict a pretty even balance between 27.5 and fatbikes at prices under $1k retail.
Carbon hardtail frames will follow the compliance development of carbon road bikes like the Trek Domane with 'decoupled' seat tube. All high end road bikes use compliance to generate sales. The 2013 Superfly 9.9 SL and 9.6-9.8 this year were a major change in this direction for Trek. They could develop enough(or are) to make 100mm fs bikes obsolete because of weight, complexity, maintenance and price.
For the future who knows how far they can go. A carbon Stache with compliance and then...
But it will take time because they make more money off fs.
wow your cheerios are soggy today, they are and will become increasingly the norm just like all the other bikes and the only slow aspect would be the doooschnozzle in the saddle, oh and no more expensive than the other kids.
Originally Posted by seat_boy
Steel bikes have become a countercultural "thing". Im OK with that.
1 x 10,11, & soon 12 makes sense for very fit, very accomplished riders. Having the range is useful to less accomplished riders. 1 x 9 will stay around, but the big cog will jump to 38 or 40.
Mech disc is pretty good and will stay around for a while.
26" bikes will possibly resurge, but the 650b contingent has convinced us that there is no reason to switch. back..save that 26" components have been around so long and competition is so stiff as to make it harder to be profitable. Good for consumer = bad for industry.
In the N. Tier states, except serious mountain/downhill/rock many riders have found the fatbike to be a "One bike" solution.
What level is "budget" on forks?
I still have 2 bikes that use friction thumbies. What is electronic shifting?
I dont have time to read my club newsletter...what's MBA?
I'm building a Klunker that will have Drums front and rear. More expensive, but a better solution than welding on brake posts like the last one. Kewl will rule.
If everyone has access to *some* riding, even if only so-so, I think that will create demand for serious riding at destinations. Everyone wins.
Why are we worried about front derailleurs if we are all going with 1X systems?
Tubeless is great. Except when it isnt.
Things we don't even imagine yet so I can't list them.
So far no one has mentioned anything that does not exist already in some form.
Ten years is a long time for what has become a technology driven sport.
KONA?!! Why all the smart azz remarks here?
Originally Posted by Kona0197
I predict that today's $400-$500 budget bikes will cost $1400-$1500 due to technology and inflation.
Belt drives will be more common.
28" wheels will be the in thing. Too early now!
I'm telling y'all, it's gonna be hover bikes everywhere one day.
Configure your own drivetrain: build whatever cassette, with as many/few cogs in whatever size(s) you want. Shifter has a lockout for the unused gears. Maybe with different (adjustable/threaded?) hub flange widths, freehub widths, and axle configurations to mix and match any which way.
When people on roller blades start using flow trails, they will go back to building real MTB trails.
It's never easier - you just go faster.
At some point soon, someone is going to come up with a real, tough lightweight alternative to the derailer system, which represents the weakest link and biggest hassle element of mountain biking. The Rohloff is really the only IGH that is durable enough for mountain biking and if someone could improve on that and make it lighter and more friendly to current mountain bike frames, it would really catch on. There has got to be a way to build a lightweight alternative that doesn't expose the entire drivetrain to dirt and mud, branches, rocks ... Given how far technology has come in all other areas of mountain biking, it's remarkable to me that the derailer system still looks and functions remarkably similar to my first 5 speed Schwinn Stingray.
The ideal, it seems to me, would be to put the gearing mechanism inside the bottom bracket and not on the rear wheel. Certainly not dangling off the side of the wheel, totally exposed.
Are you really sure about that?
Some manufacturers will start matching wheel size to frame on certain models in their line, probably on unisex high volume entry level low-midrange hardtails. 26" - small frames, 27.5"- medium frames, 29" -large frames. This will provide nicer handling bikes for people new to the sport.
Originally Posted by MSLKauai
It's already been done, by at least a few companies I believe.
It has proven surprisingly tough to improve upon the antiquated mechanical rear derailleur and cog system. Personally I am amazed by how well they work and how relatively trouble-free they are, but I live in mostly stick and mud free land.
Obviously, it hasn't been done well yet. I ride mostly on dusty, high desert trails and if you don't pay attention to your drivetrain on a pretty much weekly basis, it starts getting clunky real fast. They're reliable but fragile and noisy with all that chain slack. And, with the bigger and bigger sprockets in the back, the rear derailer is getting lower and lower, closer to the ground.
Originally Posted by J.B. Weld
I've actually got a Rohloff on a hard tail and the maintenance on that is practically zero. Squirt off and lube the chain and once a year change the oil and that's it. In 10,000 miles (maybe more?) I've never broken a chain, had the chain slip or fall off or had a shifting problem. My derailer FS bikes require a lot more attention, cleaning, adjusting, tweaking, etc. The weight of the Rohloff makes it a non-starter for most of the biking world, though.
Are you really sure about that?
I think we'll see a variation of a continuously variable transmission (CVT) for bikes.
I'm a mountain bike guide in southwest Utah
14 new bottom bracket standards.
3 new hub standards
2 new Thru axle sizes
1 new steerer tube size, and....
“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did." Mark Twain
Bike to the Bone...
Nah, it's 28.3" wheels, better bump absortions and not as finnickly as 28.7"..
Originally Posted by Goldfinger
Bikes will keep getting more expensive and people will complain about it ...
'11 Specialized Enduro Expert for the trails
'13 Felt Z4 for the road
Until they get so expensive no one will buy them, then the big bike companies will need to rethink the price points.
same can be said for nearly everything we as consumers find necessary in everyday life.
Originally Posted by Kona0197
There will still be two handfuls of people regurgitating Mountain Bike Action copy on the interwebs and believing it.
This might be your problem.
Originally Posted by Fleas
Better bikes at the lower price points.
Haro seems to be going this route and I see it catching on.
The Marin Hawk Hill is another example.
Riding Washington State singletrack since 1986
Interesting thread to bump, three years later a lot of what the OP predicted is happening.
Except for the resurgence of 26", they're deader than dead an won't be coming back....
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