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  1. #1
    bigger than you.
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    we've hit peak fat bike.

    Surly, Specialized, 9:ZERO:7 and a few others are blowing out inventory. Could this signal the end of the Fat Tax?

  2. #2
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    nope...classic supply and demand situation. nothing more, nothing less.

  3. #3
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    It does sorta seem like we waited a few years initially to get more players involved and some better options (IE-carbon everything) and then within the blink of an eye there would seem to be to many players for everyone to survive. I guess the free market will figure it all out.

  4. #4
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    In terms of volume, maybe getting close, but I suspect you'll see some entrants dropping out to be replaced with others or more suspension bikes, etc. Just like every company doesn't have a serious DH bike, I doubt every one will carry on with a serious fatbike. In the future, I suspect some will remain serious about it, while with others it will be a "we also offer it, but it doesn't really get much attention" type deal.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

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  5. #5
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    A lot of shops up here have cut back on orders. Fat and non fat.
    It doesn't matter what I ride as long as I ride it Rubber Side Down●~●.

  6. #6
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    The shops in my area that carried Surly and Salsa from day one are no longer doing so, due to the inflated US dollar. I suspect that the overstock may have something to do with them not exporting as many bikes as was expected. No one wants to pay over $1000.00 above MSRP.

  7. #7
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    Or it could be related to the terrible winter across most of the US and that most people still see them as snow bikes.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold View Post
    Or it could be related to the terrible winter across most of the US and that most people still see them as snow bikes.
    This is a good point. Here in the North East the trails are thawed, muddy, and shouldn't be ridden right now. We've only had a couple weeks of good snow riding.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aceldama View Post
    This is a good point. Here in the North East the trails are thawed, muddy, and shouldn't be ridden right now. We've only had a couple weeks of good snow riding.
    It's been even worse than that where I live in Indiana. I think I've had one snow ride in about 3". I've had a couple more rides on heavily packed snow where you'd have been fine on a cross bike. And really only a handful on frozen dirt, for that matter.

    It's been warm for so long that the trails are actually starting to dry out and firm up. Trails in the area with low traffic are actually rideable. Which is nice in a way, but so far winter has more or less skipped Indiana.

  10. #10
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    I'm in the market for a Fatbike. I noticed that the local Salsa dealer has marked down his in stock models. Hopefully other brands do this soon. When asked about demo rental they said there is not a lot of demand. Probably because of weather.

    In a month, Winterbike will happen at Kingdom Trails. Just booked a place to stay. Pray for snow!

  11. #11
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    Ski and board shops are also blowing out inventory, maybe that signals the end of snow sports?

    Nah, the winter season is over for retail, now they need to clear stock to buy for summer.

    Don't sweat it, the snow will last longer than winter retail sales

  12. #12
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    virtually no snow this year in the Greater Toronto Area of Ontario
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  13. #13
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    I think that, like most things, it's a combination of factors mentioned above.

    The snow out West is excellent this year - no lack of it at all. In addition, I'm lucky enough to live in what has turned into a fat bike Mecca, where our LBS is cranking and thriving all winter long, pretty much solely on fat bike business. Events are happening all winter long. Our trail network is growing by leaps and bounds. Our weekly "Fat Tuesday" night ride is seeing more and more people showing up. Ain't no slow-down happening in these parts. We also have a longer winter than a lot of other places in the lower 48.

    But yeah, in most places, if you're still sitting on what most people still consider to be primarily a "winter bike" in February, you better start moving your stock, no different than skis and snowboards.
    "I've been mt biking for 25 years and I don't plan on ever getting a MOPED"
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aceldama View Post
    This is a good point. Here in the North East the trails are thawed, muddy, and shouldn't be ridden right now. We've only had a couple weeks of good snow riding.
    Exactly right. I am in SW Connecticut and only had snow on the ground long enough to get out for two days on my new fat bike, with a possibility of a single storm dropping < 1" in the 10 day forecast. It's 49 degrees right now, enough to ride with short sleeves and shorts.

    All the shops I've talked to have tons of inventory in fat bikes and haven't sold much... I suspect that the real opportunity for manufacturers this year was for bigger and richer states with less severe winters (i.e., IL, NY, CT, MA instead of MN, WI, VT, AK) getting into the fun instead of selling more fat bikes in traditional fat bike havens. And when that didn't materialize, they have to puke inventory aggressively. Getting rid of the inventory is especially important because the selling season for fat bikes is much shorter than that for regular models... That's why I got such a great deal on mine, purchased a 2015 model in September 2015 after it sat on the shelf for 9 months.

  15. #15
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    2016 Lurch FS comes with Bluto and Mulefuts at $1300. I'd say the Fat Tax is over.

    I think some companies, specifically Surly, have been getting by on the Fat Tax for years. Now I think they are struggling with all the competition. Look at Surly's fat line up: Pugsley, Moonlander, ICT, Wednesday... At least one of these is going to get dropped eventually and it won't be their newest offerings. I'm betting the Pugs or Moonlander gets dropped and since I don't mind the Pugs being discontinued that means it will be the Moonlander that gets cut.

    I just don't see how they can get away with another year like 2015. They had too many bikes and practically gave them away at the end of the year. The bigwigs at QBP aren't likely to let that happen again.
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    A lot of it also has to do with dealers that really don't get it or want to get it. They allow the snow bike tag to be bandied about and refuse to realize that they are more than that.

    If just one person at each of these shops would get off their 700x23 fixed gear frankenbike with stupid fkn stickers all over it and go get giggly on a fatty things might change but it's easier to be all snobby and ignorant about them. It's easier to sell hybrids/fitness bikes and spandex and spin shoes to people that don't enjoy bikes than it is to explain how having fun riding a bike will make your life better. If they're going to sell something expensive it should either have drop bars and electronic shifting or a battery and motor because that's fun

  17. #17
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    This is all standard market stuff, in standard order. Niche market, high prices, limited mfgs, low supply, mass acceptance, standards development and adoption, glut of players, high competition, high supply, reduction of demand, better prices. Nothing new or unexpected here. Mfgs were expecting and preparing for this if they have half a brain, and the winners are the consumer.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold View Post
    It's been even worse than that where I live in Indiana. I think I've had one snow ride in about 3". I've had a couple more rides on heavily packed snow where you'd have been fine on a cross bike. And really only a handful on frozen dirt, for that matter.

    It's been warm for so long that the trails are actually starting to dry out and firm up. Trails in the area with low traffic are actually rideable. Which is nice in a way, but so far winter has more or less skipped Indiana.
    Me too! In Chicago area...been the warmest winter I can remember and I am....OLD...
    As to "hitting the peak"...I remember being at a race up in Wisconsin 2 years ago and a rep said that the fat bike peak had already been hit....and I remember thinking...."seriously???" I'd bet it's got a lot to do with the weather and lack of "snow". I'm the only guy in my group that has only one bike and that bike is a fatty....I think for most other people they are "secondary bikes" for snow or trail....

  19. #19
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    Isn't this the traditional blow out season for a lot of sporting/hiking goods? I usually buy all my sporting goods at this time since prices get slashed. When all the fake deals of Black-Friday and Cyber-Monday are over and manufactures actually need to clear stock for the upcoming seasons products.

    But I'd wager manufactures did overextend a bit, somehow thinking that the average biker would be willing to ride in the cold.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by l3eaudacious View Post
    Isn't this the traditional blow out season for a lot of sporting/hiking goods? I usually buy all my sporting goods at this time since prices get slashed. When all the fake deals of Black-Friday and Cyber-Monday are over and manufactures actually need to clear stock for the upcoming seasons products.

    But I'd wager manufactures did overextend a bit, somehow thinking that the average biker would be willing to ride in the cold.
    Yes traditionally this is the blow out season. However, in years past fat bikes didn't stay in stock long enough to make it to blow out season. If you tried to order a bike in January you had to wait until Spring for your bike to ship.
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  21. #21
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    I just want good $60 tubeless tire options and $100 tubeless / studded options.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    I just want good $60 tubeless tire options and $100 tubeless / studded options.
    Is that all, your majesty? We can't even get that with normal 2" tires!
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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold View Post
    Or it could be related to the terrible winter across most of the US and that most people still see them as snow bikes.
    Same in Alaska. Although we have a pretty small population, the fatbikes-per-capita is pretty high, just like skis and other winter stuff. Can't get it to snow below about 1000', which has trashed many of the trails. They are "rideable", but only on studs because they are sheets of ice, some are so rooty that they are just not worth it.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

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    I think a lot has to be of people who have no idea toting what they think is truth. I was turned off of fat bikes a couple years back when I first saw one.. single speed.. at a cross country race. He didn't win, but he was fast.

    I asked my riding buddies, the head guys for the trail organization I was with, what the deal was with these new fangled balloon tired bikes. I was told that they are slow up hill, bounce around downhill, and are useless in the mud as all it does is pack on the tire.

    Fast forward a couple years, I wend for a ride with the fat bike group up here to see what it was all about. I was too beat to go for a demo after a good ride on my 29er, but I knew I had to have one. They had no problem keeping pace with me either up or down (I'm slow, but I can tell it wasn't much extra effort on their part) and >I< was getting off in the deep mud as I would dig in. They rode right over top of all the muck without a care. Surely, I may end up going a bit slower, but from what I've seen and experienced thus far, it'll be much better enjoyment per mile than any bike I've had before. (Isn't that what it's all about?)

    Fat bikes now kinda remind me of 29ers back in the early days. Sooo many naysayers that had little to no experience, all the same thing. The wheels are too big, too slow, harder to climb, ect. Boy were they wrong. 26" bikes are on their way out, for good reason. I don't think fat bikes will ever replace traditional bikes, but I do think that as it catches on, more people will understand them and there will be a lot more support for fat bikes/better parts/more manufacturers. Soon, we may see headlines in the bike mags about whoever's newest full suspension fat bike. Nice and nimble, great suspension that compliments the tires, rolls over anything, eats roots for lunch, ect. The big question is, what will the next fad be after this? Suspension, carbon, 29er, 27.5, fat bikes (both 4 and 5 inch).. what's around the corner? Who has the next crazy idea that "will never work", but will in a huge way?

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    Im so torn right now, I will finally have the money for a fatbike this week but feels like winter is over and I wonder if the campany will start clearouts soon. there is 20 left in Canada SO im guessing they wont all sell in the next month

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    I think the old guard is feeling the pinch of value fat bikes. Between Chinese carbon frames and direct to supplier bikes like Framed and BD, the bloated prices of the early fat bike makers are starting to hurt the bottom line. compare MSRP of a Pug to something for the same price by Framed or from BD. if you are not specifically looking for the quirks of a Pug (i.e. steel frame, offset rear, bike packing geo) but instead want a fat version of your XC bike there is no comparison. (some people just want a Pugsley, i get that) Also the fact that you can get a 23-25lbs carbon bike for $2500 from a Chinese company really kills the $5k carbon bike market. it will be interesting to see how the big names market there stuff and if the Chinese companies can gain more ground. it will get harder and harder to justify $2500 for a carbon wheel set compared to $5-700.

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    I think that the fat bike "fad" is over... They are more accepted now and the big mfg's can no longer charge the high prices because of places like BD and Framed. I bought my rigid Sturgis with Mulefut rims for $1100, really quite a deal compared to a similarly equiped Trek Farley I saw on the trail in December, he basically had a better crank for twice the price and the bikes weighed the same. Many of the Fat bikes were very over priced...

    That being said, I enjoy my fat bike more than any other bike I have ever owned. I smile and keep on pedaling no matter what the conditions are!
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    When I bought my bd gbm I felt like a kid again. It seems here in central Missouri the"peak " hasn't been achieved yet. Our local shop has a 14 Farley and still refers to them as 'snow bikes '.I personally think that the bbig. Boys have just come to their senses about pricing. My monster is my year round ride. And I have literally came back from the brink of lethargy to once again being an avid activie cyclist. Thanks for listening Oldbear, Rolla Missouri

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    Quote Originally Posted by machine4321 View Post
    Im so torn right now, I will finally have the money for a fatbike this week but feels like winter is over and I wonder if the campany will start clearouts soon. there is 20 left in Canada SO im guessing they wont all sell in the next month
    I wish I was in your position although I've had pretty "epic" rides on mine since November that I wouldn't exchange for anything. But yes, there wasn't enough snow this year so far and I can only think of 1 solid snow ride. The rest were slushy or icy rides.

    I live in the Greater Toronto Area (15km from the actual downtown core). My LBS stocked more Fatbikes this year than the past (say, 15) but I think they've only sold 2-3. I bet they'd be more than willing to sell 30% or more off MSRP. They'll probably try to move them all out at the Toronto Bike Show in March.

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    Im in grey bruce. We have had enough snow amd usually get more. Im sure I will use it next year too.

    I hate the trainer and im hoping the fat bike can suplement my xc race training. Even earlt spring and late fall will prove its usefullness. I had a blast on a borrowed bike for a week of greay amd crappy conditions.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold View Post
    It's been even worse than that where I live in Indiana. I think I've had one snow ride in about 3". I've had a couple more rides on heavily packed snow where you'd have been fine on a cross bike. And really only a handful on frozen dirt, for that matter.

    It's been warm for so long that the trails are actually starting to dry out and firm up. Trails in the area with low traffic are actually rideable. Which is nice in a way, but so far winter has more or less skipped Indiana.
    Wow, meanwhile, I can't keep my trails packed with all the constant snow.

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    On Sunday, I did my usual ride on the beach since the trails were not quite groomed enough with the heavy snow we had two weeks ago and the above freezing temps we have had recently. The point is, I was riding a bike on the beach, that was never before possible. I probably passed about a half dozen other fat bikers on the beach. Soft sugar sand is nothing to 100mm rims and 4.8" tires. I have two fat bikes one set up for beach/surf casting and one set up for the sandy atv trails near my house. Fad, ok sure. But fat bikes are the perfect bike for me.

  33. #33
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    Part of the reason your seeing blowouts on bikes like Surly is because they won't accept a suspension fork, and folks are looking for the best bang for their buck - meaning that they are looking for something that is versatile enough to ride all year long - i.e. A Bluto and 29+ wheels... At least around these parts in Colorado!


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  34. #34
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    So... when are we going to see Peak fat bike *tire* pricing?
    It's not dirt in my apartment --it's Earth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    So... when are we going to see Peak fat bike *tire* pricing?
    One can hope... give it 2 more years
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  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    So... when are we going to see Peak fat bike *tire* pricing?
    There are good tires in the $70 range.... Much better than $150 husker dus

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by alphazz View Post
    Wow, meanwhile, I can't keep my trails packed with all the constant snow.
    You need to convert more locals to the one true FAiTh!

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  38. #38
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    Great thing about the beach is...year 'round fat biking.

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    Would it be far fetched to state that this person might be a visionary?

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  40. #40
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    that's going too far...

  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoBoy View Post
    I wish I was in your position although I've had pretty "epic" rides on mine since November that I wouldn't exchange for anything. But yes, there wasn't enough snow this year so far and I can only think of 1 solid snow ride. The rest were slushy or icy rides.

    I live in the Greater Toronto Area (15km from the actual downtown core). My LBS stocked more Fatbikes this year than the past (say, 15) but I think they've only sold 2-3. I bet they'd be more than willing to sell 30% or more off MSRP. They'll probably try to move them all out at the Toronto Bike Show in March.
    If its the LBS I'm thinking of, they wont be at 30% I have seen there prices creeping up on bikes sitting on the floor. They have items on Ebay with reduced prices with make best offer, but if you go in they won't offer you that price and try to sell it marked up.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoBoy View Post
    I wish I was in your position although I've had pretty "epic" rides on mine since November that I wouldn't exchange for anything. But yes, there wasn't enough snow this year so far and I can only think of 1 solid snow ride. The rest were slushy or icy rides.

    I live in the Greater Toronto Area (15km from the actual downtown core). My LBS stocked more Fatbikes this year than the past (say, 15) but I think they've only sold 2-3. I bet they'd be more than willing to sell 30% or more off MSRP. They'll probably try to move them all out at the Toronto Bike Show in March.
    Quote Originally Posted by machine4321 View Post
    Im in grey bruce. We have had enough snow amd usually get more. Im sure I will use it next year too.

    I hate the trainer and im hoping the fat bike can suplement my xc race training. Even earlt spring and late fall will prove its usefullness. I had a blast on a borrowed bike for a week of greasy amd crappy conditions.
    I'm midtown Toronto, luckily the fat bike stays at the cottage (Thornbury) and I ride it there. At least there is some snow there.

    If I had it in the city, i likely wouldn't have been out on snow at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Windigo View Post
    If its the LBS I'm thinking of, they wont be at 30% I have seen there prices creeping up on bikes sitting on the floor. They have items on Ebay with reduced prices with make best offer, but if you go in they won't offer you that price and try to sell it marked up.
    which shop is this?
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  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgw2jr View Post
    I just don't see how they can get away with another year like 2015. They had too many bikes and practically gave them away at the end of the year. The bigwigs at QBP aren't likely to let that happen again.
    You've got part of it right.

    Surly designs, develops, and pushes the 'go' button on production. QBP bigwigs decide how many to bring in. This year they overshot by a wide margin and had to dump inventory at a loss to move them out. Doesn't reflect poorly on/against Surly, just the Qube farmers that missed on their projections.

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikesee View Post
    You've got part of it right.

    Surly designs, develops, and pushes the 'go' button on production. QBP bigwigs decide how many to bring in. This year they overshot by a wide margin and had to dump inventory at a loss to move them out. Doesn't reflect poorly on/against Surly, just the Qube farmers that missed on their projections.

    I wonder if more people are looking at the "new" stuff out there, then look at Surly, which seems to be stuck in 2013, and think to themselves..."Surly deserves credit for this, a lot of credit, but there are way cooler bikes out there now and if Surly won't build them, I am happy to buy it from somebody else". Similar to Americans view of Foreign cars now...So many Americans used to only buy American, but when they started giving Honda and Toyota an honest look, American junk didn't stack up and more and more started doing the once unthinkable, buying something other than American.

    Just a thought. Could be way off, but I think a lot of people would buy a Surly if they'd make what so many riders want, carbon, suspension, etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by litespeedaddict View Post
    Just a thought. Could be way off, but I think a lot of people would buy a Surly if they'd make what so many riders want, carbon, suspension, etc.
    Yeah, Surly is not going to be making carbon bikes or full suspension bikes. That's not what they do. QBP has Salsa and other brands for that. Plenty of people want simple, tough steel bikes that work well for a reasonable price. That's what Surly does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    Yeah, Surly is not going to be making carbon bikes or full suspension bikes. That's not what they do. QBP has Salsa and other brands for that. Plenty of people want simple, tough steel bikes that work well for a reasonable price. That's what Surly does.
    I understand, and good on them for doing it their way and making some bank along the way. All I know is I'd buy a Krampus, if it was carbon and had more rear spacing, etc.

    I think, unless they continue to create stuff nobody else has thought of yet, an argument could be made they will sell less and less of their stuff (Surly specific stuff) going forward.

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    QBP didn't understand what a flooded market of competition was going to do to sales. I think a lot of the time Surly doesn't have a lot of direct competition with its other models, so when they see sales skyrocket the get all excited.

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    Quote Originally Posted by awai04 View Post
    So... when are we going to see Peak fat bike *tire* pricing?
    Waiting for that too. We're getting there in some regard, but not quickly enough. 4.5 Jug Sports for under $50 is a good start though.

    The funny thing to me is how many people try to justify asinine prices for fat tires. "But....its twice as wide so it has twice the rubber and carcass material, it should cost twice as much!". Ummm.....no. Most of the cost is wrapped up in the manufacturing side, not the materials. Hence the reason a pair of kid Nikes costs as much as an adult pair. Still takes the same amount of manufacturing work to deliver a pair of shoes no matter what size they are. People don't get that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    Yeah, Surly is not going to be making carbon bikes or full suspension bikes. That's not what they do. QBP has Salsa and other brands for that. Plenty of people want simple, tough steel bikes that work well for a reasonable price. That's what Surly does.
    I don't know if the terms "Surly" and "reasonable price" should be used in the same sentence. There prices not being reasonable is what this whole thread is about.

    And as more casual riders get into fat bikes I think that the 135mm offset rear and steel frame will be desired less and less. They won't go away but they will fall to an even more niche product. 197mm hydro formed aluminum and carbon will be where most frames go to.

  50. #50
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    I'm pretty sure Surly doesn't give a flying **** what Bikes Direct or Framed is doing.

    And folks can argue all day about there being cheaper and more 'advanced' options out there than what Surly currently offers, but those are the folks that aren't going to buy a Surly anyway. They've never tried to be the company for "everyone." Certain people are going to buy Surlys, and a lot of people probably won't. It wasn't all that different even before they first came out with the Pug.

    I'm not necessarily defending them, or their approach, just pointing out the obvious.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BadgerOne View Post
    The funny thing to me is how many people try to justify asinine prices for fat tires. "But....its twice as wide so it has twice the rubber and carcass material, it should cost twice as much!". Ummm.....no. Most of the cost is wrapped up in the manufacturing side, not the materials. Hence the reason a pair of kid Nikes costs as much as an adult pair. Still takes the same amount of manufacturing work to deliver a pair of shoes no matter what size they are. People don't get that.
    Ahh, but what you're missing and why your analogy doesn't hold up here is that normal mountain bike tires are not as expensive as fat tires.
    See below for why fat tires cost so much.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale

  52. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by litespeedaddict View Post
    I understand, and good on them for doing it their way and making some bank along the way. All I know is I'd buy a Krampus, if it was carbon and had more rear spacing, etc.

    I think, unless they continue to create stuff nobody else has thought of yet, an argument could be made they will sell less and less of their stuff (Surly specific stuff) going forward.
    Then you're not Surly's targeted audience.

    I really think the rotten winter in traditional fatbike strongholds is a pretty major factor. Market saturation is an issue, too. Too many brands/models bleeding sales from the early innovators in the market segment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smithhammer View Post
    I'm pretty sure Surly doesn't give a flying **** what Bikes Direct or Framed is doing.

    And folks can argue all day about there being cheaper and more 'advanced' options out there than what Surly currently offers, but those are the folks that aren't going to buy a Surly anyway. They've never tried to be the company for "everyone." Certain people are going to buy Surlys, and a lot of people probably won't. It wasn't all that different even before they first came out with the Pug.

    I'm not necessarily defending them, or their approach, just pointing out the obvious.
    While surly bikes are targeted at a very specific segment I am willing to bet that they watch what others are doing. If they don't they will become irrelevant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jefflinde View Post
    I don't know if the terms "Surly" and "reasonable price" should be used in the same sentence. There prices not being reasonable is what this whole thread is about.
    To me, Surly's full retail pricing is very reasonable given other LBS options. Their recent sale pricing was truly a good deal.

    Note that I'm a frequent BD buyer, so I get what you're driving at.

  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jefflinde View Post
    While surly bikes are targeted at a very specific segment I am willing to bet that they watch what others are doing. If they don't they will become irrelevant.
    Oh, I have no doubt they watch what others are doing. I'm just not sure they care what certain other companies are doing. Surly never became 'relevant' in the first place by copying what others were offering - they became relevant because they focused on certain types of bikes that they wanted to ride, made out of steel, and against a lot of trends that were (and still are) happening in the industry. And it turned out some other people liked those bikes, and that approach as well. Which is really all they ever set out to do - I don't think they ever hoped to become a big player in the industry, catering to the latest whims.

    I think there are a lot of people who don't know much about the history of Surly before they started making fat bikes - their approach has been fairly consistent since long before QBP ever bought them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gambit21 View Post
    Agreed. This is going to change rapidly in 2016, I'll bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayem View Post
    Same in Alaska. Although we have a pretty small population, the fatbikes-per-capita is pretty high, just like skis and other winter stuff. Can't get it to snow below about 1000', which has trashed many of the trails. They are "rideable", but only on studs because they are sheets of ice, some are so rooty that they are just not worth it.

    Your on the coast so your just having a coastal winter. Here in Glennallen, we have great riding conditions. Tho we don't have our usual 24-30" of snow pack. We do have 12" . at -5F atm . It is warmer than usual but we get by.
    I still can't unnerstand this adversness to studded fat bike tires . . Strange weather and Alaska are synonymous. . Stud up and Whindoner !!
    Around here , people are blown away that we ride on slick ice. With 100% confidence. They actually think its really cool.
    And, it's really something when a 55 yo fat guy truly impresses a teenager. I predict that by next devidend time there will be more than a dozen Fatty's in Glennallen. Then they'll start showing up in Tok too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold View Post
    Then you're not Surly's targeted audience.

    You're right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smithhammer View Post
    I'm pretty sure Surly doesn't give a flying **** what Bikes Direct or Framed is doing.

    And folks can argue all day about there being cheaper and more 'advanced' options out there than what Surly currently offers, but those are the folks that aren't going to buy a Surly anyway.
    This is pretty much true. I have nothing against bikes direct or Framed, but they do cut corners on parts that matter while nicely spec'ing the parts that are in your face like brakes and shifters so people can say they are well spec'd. I have a friend that bought the steel fat bike from bikes direct because he thought it was basically a Surly. He's a bigger guy, but has broken many things on it, bottom bracket shot right away, and has blown out the rear hub 2 times now in just 2 years.
    ...Be careful what you're looking at because it might be looking back...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gambit21 View Post
    Ahh, but what you're missing and why your analogy doesn't hold up here is that normal mountain bike tires are not as expensive as fat tires.
    See below for why fat tires cost so much.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale
    Phew! Thank goodness someone posted this. After years of studying Smith, Friedman, and Sowell, I might have gone to the grave without knowing this fundamental bit of economics!

    In seriousness, yeah...obviously. But I'm surprised we haven't reached this point already between new mfg demand, the global consumer demand, and China's unnatural ability to bend the rules of economies of scale.

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    Surly's parent company....QBP...watches all the segments. Besides surly...they have Salsa for higher end and Heller for the BD competition


    Quote Originally Posted by Smithhammer View Post
    I'm pretty sure Surly doesn't give a flying **** what Bikes Direct or Framed is doing.

    And folks can argue all day about there being cheaper and more 'advanced' options out there than what Surly currently offers, but those are the folks that aren't going to buy a Surly anyway. They've never tried to be the company for "everyone." Certain people are going to buy Surlys, and a lot of people probably won't. It wasn't all that different even before they first came out with the Pug.

    I'm not necessarily defending them, or their approach, just pointing out the obvious.

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    Fat Bikes have not completed their run at all!

    Fat Bikes opened up the winter cycling market and it is here to stay. As the "ramp-up" of this cool "new" product may slow, traditional supply and demand influences will take over. Also weather will have its effect on demand, much the way it does for skis or non-fat bike sales.

    Fat Bikes have permanently changed the bike industry and given LBS a winter revenue source they didn't have before. I don't see it as any more a fad than 29ers were (which I was told 11 years ago when I bought my 1st 29er - "get extra tires there won't be any available in a couple years").

    Fat is here to stay and there will be winners and losers along the way eventually leading to a market equilibrium not unlike traditional bike sales but at lower volumes (not everybody likes to get out into the cold to bike... or ski).

    Fat is dead! Long live Fat!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BadgerOne View Post
    Phew! Thank goodness someone posted this. After years of studying Smith, Friedman, and Sowell, I might have gone to the grave without knowing this fundamental bit of economics!

    In seriousness, yeah...obviously. But I'm surprised we haven't reached this point already between new mfg demand, the global consumer demand, and China's unnatural ability to bend the rules of economies of scale.
    Yeah I'm with ya.

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    Yeah Surly has been "too big for their britches" expensive for a while now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by duggus View Post
    This is pretty much true. I have nothing against bikes direct or Framed, but they do cut corners on parts that matter while nicely spec'ing the parts that are in your face like brakes and shifters so people can say they are well spec'd.
    Yes - to be fair BD more so than Framed...but yep.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BadgerOne View Post
    Phew! Thank goodness someone posted this. After years of studying Smith, Friedman, and Sowell, I might have gone to the grave without knowing this fundamental bit of economics!
    This forum also requires a solid understanding of Cournot competition, tax wedges, the Prisoner's dilemma, efficient frontiers, deadweight loss and Nash equilibria... do you also feel comfortably conversant in these topics? Forget about Wolfgar boots, I want to know if you consider yourself a Keynesian or do you prefer Hayek/Chicago school classic liberalism? Hmm?

  67. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    This forum also requires a solid understanding of Cournot competition, tax wedges, the Prisoner's dilemma, efficient frontiers, deadweight loss and Nash equilibria... do you also feel comfortably conversant in these topics? Forget about Wolfgar boots, I want to know if you consider yourself a Keynesian or do you prefer Hayek/Chicago school classic liberalism? Hmm?
    I believe it was Keynes that said "In the end, we're all dead anyway". Or something close to it.

    So there's that.

  68. #68
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    I believe it had something to do with how the market corrects itself in the long run.

    "But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead"

  69. #69
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    Here's what I see... Two years ago, Bud and Lou were 175 dollars apiece. Now, they're 120. I just got one of 907's closeout frames at an insane price. I was about to pony up 999 for a black one but I'll be happier in the long run after I powder coat my 450 purple frame.
    There are more choices, better, lighter stuff... Win for all of us.
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  70. #70
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    Innovation is coming in.

    No more XC bikes with 4" tires.

    Bikes are being built with fun angles & geo, dropper and Bluto compatibilities, etc.

    And new tires are really, really cool.

    I for one have thought fat bikes were cool. Now I really, really want a Wednesday, with a 1x11 drivetrain,dropper, Bluto and tubeless wheels with a Flowbeist/Dunderbeist combo.
    I like 'em long, low, slack and playful

  71. #71
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    Eh, im happy with my 5" tire xc geo hardtail fatbike. It's what works in the winter. When i want to get my fairweather shred on, I've got a more worthy steed in my quiver.

    It is still fun enough i don't mind riding it in the summer if my trailbike is down, though.

    I just don't see the appeal of agressive fatbikes, thats where plus bikes make sense to me.

  72. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by duggus
    I have a friend that bought the steel fat bike from bikes direct because he thought it was basically a Surly. He's a bigger guy, but has broken many things on it, bottom bracket shot right away, and has blown out the rear hub 2 times now in just 2 years.
    I did the same thing to a Scott and I'm not overly big or strong. Not just BD that can happen to imo.

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    Fatbikes inherent usage lends itself towards higher maintance cost. Bbs, hub bearings, chains and cables. It's what happens when you ride in salty frozen water.

    I don't understand how there is only 1 fork from a major manufacturer available that fits 5" tires.

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    In my opinion the logical step for surly would be to discontinue the Moonlander and ICT. Keep the pugs in low numbers for touring people, make a Wednesday 2.0 (would be the main seller), and Release a Moonlander 2.0 that can fit 5.6 + tires for real crazy expeditions. What do I know though, I don't buy Surly bikes.

    Then again FatBike's aren't Surly's only product, maybe they just have to admit defeat and just make lower production numbers for their market segment.

  75. #75
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    If Surly offered a bike with a flannel, beard and IPA.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpre View Post
    I did the same thing to a Scott and I'm not overly big or strong. Not just BD that can happen to imo.
    Yeah. Their hubs and cranks are the same as the first gen specialized. In this particular case, he learned a lesson for cheap.

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    to many manufacturers not enough buyers....just like everything else.

  78. #78
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    don't discount the 2xl and beyond factor.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bighit View Post
    don't discount the 2xl and beyond factor.
    Niche in a niche. Powder bikes are a compromise everywhere else, aren't practical/necessary for a lot of locales, and specialize in a type of riding that is arguably not enjoyable for the average Joe.

    I don't think it's a factor in real world sales and most are still buying normal size fatties.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tfinator View Post
    Yeah. Their hubs and cranks are the same as the first gen specialized. In this particular case, he learned a lesson for cheap.
    BD obviously offers bikes at a number of levels with differing component qualities and various frames. People in this thread have repeatedly talked about BD as if they only sell $500 Gravity models with generic Chinese builds.

  81. #81
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    Can we keep ONE fatbike thread on topic?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    BD obviously offers bikes at a number of levels with differing component qualities and various frames. People in this thread have repeatedly talked about BD as if they only sell $500 Gravity models with generic Chinese builds.
    Yeah, there's some sort of weird obsession with some on here, where they feel the need to bash BD bikes in any thread remotely related. Not only annoying for the thread derailment aspect, but clearly misinformed ignorance at best.

  83. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllMountin' View Post
    Niche in a niche. Powder bikes are a compromise everywhere else, aren't practical/necessary for a lot of locales, and specialize in a type of riding that is arguably not enjoyable for the average Joe.

    I don't think it's a factor in real world sales and most are still buying normal size fatties.
    The most asked question about any and all fat bikes is wondering if they will fit the fattest tires and rims available.
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  84. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by dietz31684 View Post
    Can we keep ONE fatbike thread on topic?
    whats off topic?
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  85. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by bighit View Post
    The most asked question about any and all fat bikes is wondering if they will fit the fattest tires and rims available.
    Hmm...I thought it was some variation on, "Where can I get the cheapest fat bike possible?"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flucod View Post
    No, it is the BD posters with their constant entering every thread about how everyone else is stupid cause they got swindled for paying more. I have put together, on average, a BD bike a week and still cannot grasp how cheap the frames are, frame quality is on par with dept store bikes. AND that is why you get the posts on here, but clearly misinformed ignorance at best.
    Well that's certainly not good either, I guess I haven't seen as much of that. I've seen more instances of where BD is brought up first as having low quality parts or frame, which just isn't the case for all their models. I can only speak to the Motobecane Sturgis, which seems to me to have frame quality on par with just about any other aluminum framed bike. If you have data indicating otherwise, I'd certainly like to see it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flucod View Post
    No, it is the BD posters with their constant entering every thread about how everyone else is stupid cause they got swindled for paying more. I have put together, on average, a BD bike a week and still cannot grasp how cheap the frames are, frame quality is on par with dept store bikes. AND that is why you get the posts on here, but clearly misinformed ignorance at best.
    This goes around and around.

    They do that because they get sh%$ on all the time. So they get defensive and sh&$# on others.

    I don't really think this needs to be talked about.

    If they hurt your feelings, then go cry somewhere else, and I say the same to them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bighit View Post
    The most asked question about any and all fat bikes is wondering if they will fit the fattest tires and rims available.
    On here, sure it's a common question. But on trail? Everyone keeps showing up with Farleys and Fatboys.

    My buddy owns a Blackborrow and 2xl's. Still cuts down to the base with them, so what's the point? Unless you're Espen-sized, you aren't floating, and there are better tires for everywhere else.

  89. #89
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    the love/hate BD that happens when any fatbike thread exceeds 3 pages...

  90. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by tfinator View Post
    This goes around and around.

    They do that because they get sh%$ on all the time. So they get defensive and sh&$# on others.

    I don't really think this needs to be talked about.

    If they hurt your feelings, then go cry somewhere else, and I say the same to them.
    I think this sums it up nicely. I mostly laugh at the BD hate....I have high end bikes and a BD bike for the winter, it is what it is. It is a gateway drug for a bike ridden in the snow, when it is nippy out and occasionally in the summer for fun. It has yet to snap in half and skewer my junk with the top tube.....my brake mounts haven't flown off and stabbed my wife in the eye behind me, Chinese spies haven't planted bugs in my down tube to listen to my pontifications on beer and riding.....it's a frigging steel bike with paint on it. I don't wet myself over stickers on bikes. I do however enjoy pushing some buttons here and there for entertainment purposes.

    I'm not really sure why people get their panties all wadded up in defense of BD and certainly don't understand why people without a BD bike even care......if someone is happy with their Surly or Fat Boy or Lurch etc. fantastic....see you on the trails....then in the bar.....

    Regarding peak fat bike......I agree with market forces catching up.....IMHO, folks like myself and my wife bought a FB primarily for winter riding. When it is 5 degrees out and we're riding in the woods all geared up, the latest and greatest carbon bits etc. wouldn't mean much to us.....therefore I don't see us upgrading bikes anytime soon short of things breaking and wearing out.....And many folks we ride with are the same way, once they have a solid FB for winter, they are out of the FB market for several years. Both bikes are 190/197 and Bluto equipped.....so for folks like me the market is saturated or over.

    The year-round fattie rider is where the growth is left and that is where I see manufacturers focusing effort.

    I might pick ups some 29+ wheels for her Scott but that is where the spending ends for fat for a few years. I don't think we are alone.
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  91. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllMountin' View Post
    On here, sure it's a common question. But on trail? Everyone keeps showing up with Farleys and Fatboys.

    My buddy owns a Blackborrow and 2xl's. Still cuts down to the base with them, so what's the point? Unless you're Espen-sized, you aren't floating, and there are better tires for everywhere else.
    The tires out there and bike co's will be sure to have a bike next year to fit it. Its been this way for a long time every time a new bigger or wider tire comes out.
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  92. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flucod View Post
    On topic, sold 7 fatties at the shop this week, 3 Big Eds and 4 Salsa Carbon Beargreases = think the fat revolution is just getting started!
    As a side note, my wife loves her Big Ed I got her for her birthday.....very solid bike. As is the Big Jon if it weren't so sold out in popular sizes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiro11 View Post
    This forum also requires a solid understanding of Cournot competition, tax wedges, the Prisoner's dilemma, efficient frontiers, deadweight loss and Nash equilibria... do you also feel comfortably conversant in these topics? Forget about Wolfgar boots, I want to know if you consider yourself a Keynesian or do you prefer Hayek/Chicago school classic liberalism? Hmm?
    With masterpieces like The Wealth Of Nations and Free To Choose being some of the most enlightening and educational things I've studied...do you really think I would consider myself a Keynesian as opposed to classic liberalism? Seems that my cited sources should have made that pretty obvious...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bighit View Post
    The tires out there and bike co's will be sure to have a bike next year to fit it. Its been this way for a long time every time a new bigger or wider tire comes out.
    There will always be a market for boutique brands, but the mainstream push for powder bikes just isn't there. The industry won't embrace a hub larger than 197.

    Even now, 95% of riders where I am choose to run tires smaller than Bud and Lou. They don't want the biggest tires on the market now; they certainly won't go bigger.

  95. #95
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    I agree there is a glut of fat bikes now and they are now subject to the same principals as other bikes on the market i.e. close outs and deep discounts. However there is a bigger tire available and like it or not its influence needed or not will be felt. I remember when 3.0 was too much and who would want it. then came the pugs with 3.7 ands on so forth.
    2013 mongoose Fat bike
    2012 Moonlander.

    http://undergroundvelo.proboards.com/

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    Quote Originally Posted by bighit View Post
    I agree there is a glut of fat bikes now and they are now subject to the same principals as other bikes on the market i.e. close outs and deep discounts. However there is a bigger tire available and like it or not its influence needed or not will be felt. I remember when 3.0 was too much and who would want it. then came the pugs with 3.7 ands on so forth.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
    Disclaimer: I run Regular Cycles (as of 2016). As a profiteer of the bicycle industry, I am not to be taken very seriously.

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    More full sus fatties. Yup, you heard it here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AllMountin' View Post
    On here, sure it's a common question. But on trail? Everyone keeps showing up with Farleys and Fatboys.

    My buddy owns a Blackborrow and 2xl's. Still cuts down to the base with them, so what's the point? Unless you're Espen-sized, you aren't floating, and there are better tires for everywhere else.
    Don't forget about the sand (lots of that in Michigan), Kyle could tear it up on the dunes while we are walking................

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    Quote Originally Posted by BadgerOne View Post
    With masterpieces like The Wealth Of Nations and Free To Choose being some of the most enlightening and educational things I've studied...do you really think I would consider myself a Keynesian as opposed to classic liberalism? Seems that my cited sources should have made that pretty obvious...
    A man after my own heart. Preach it, brother! Hayek 4 Ever!

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    Quote Originally Posted by AllMountin' View Post
    On here, sure it's a common question. But on trail? Everyone keeps showing up with Farleys and Fatboys.
    Not to be a jerk, but the Farley and Fatboy take 5.0 tires. Trek and Specialized made it a point of saying that on their web sites.
    2013 mongoose Fat bike
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