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How Long Before The Big Boys Join The Fray?

18K views 153 replies 70 participants last post by  kris7047th 
#1 ·
I've heard rumors that Specialized is working on a fat bike or two. Wouldn't be surprised if others are as well. Is the market big enough for the big bike brands to jump in, or is it still a niche market too small for them to be interested? Has anyone else heard such rumors?
 
#27 ·
The current prices, artificial scarcity/demand, proprietary BS even on different bikes from same big building etc.... I can't wait for the 'big' guys to come in.
Im relatively new fat bike rider at about 1 year and while i really enjoy being a bit different it will be good to get others in the mix. More and new suspension, tyres, tubeless, hubs, forks, cranks and BB's will all come with popularity.

To you long time riders who cringe at the thought of it, hold onto your purple pugs ;)
 
#35 ·
The trek bashing is a bit much. Seriously.

Trek didn't buy any company that didn't want to be sold. You may not believe this, but LeMond and Klein were both really poorly run businesses with great names. Both would have gone under had Trek not bought them. Trek bought them for their names and ran them well until it made no sense to do so anymore. Klein made aluminum bikes. You see anyone buying top-end aluminum these days? Neither did trek, so they killed the brand. A brand that was never horribly popular to begin with that by the end was only selling in Japan. Lemond was... Lemond. A brilliant racer, a horrible business man. He hired some good people to build bikes for him over the years, and he and trek made some great bikes. But he was a hothead.

And, while at one time it made sense to have 5 brands, it stopped making sense to compete against themselves. It's something that QBP will have to wrestle with at some point.

Bontarager sold his name. Don't blame trek for that. Fisher, don't see him complaining.

And let's not let Salsa of the hook. It's got no connection to the good ol' days of Ross Shafer. It's a wholly owned subsidiary of QBP, who makes everything in Tawain and China but spends a butt-load on marketing to make Surly look like a home-grown little group of twin-city hipsters.

I have never seen trek get involved with anything and not make it better. Oh, boo-hoo, trek is going build some bontrager fat rims that will be lighter and stronger. Please no Trek, don't get DT Swiss to make some lightweight hubs. Please whatever you do trek, don't turn fatbikes into another well-sorted product that actually works without modification, as sold and delivered.

I don't want to sound like a dick, but Trek is a local company, they make good stuff.
 
#37 ·
And let's not let Salsa of the hook. It's got no connection to the good ol' days of Ross Shafer. It's a wholly owned subsidiary of QBP, who makes everything in Tawain and China but spends a butt-load on marketing to make Surly look like a home-grown little group of twin-city hipsters.
LOL ... Not really knocking them, much ... They're business model is obviously working, and it helps the biking community as a whole.

FYI:
I just read that ... Surly is a knock-off of Salsa ... Who got bought out after a bad stem design cost them plenty.
Didn't know that !!

Questions is,
If they really expanded their market, would their prices be reduced, or would they keep asking high prices for (imported) stuff.

My WalMart comment would be good for my pocketbook.
$500 dollar fatbike, imported from the same country, please.
 
#55 ·
My 2 cents of knowledge.

Trek did not jump on board the 29er movement, they pushed it through when no big player would touch them. They pushed through the first real tires and shocks to make a real 29er mountain bike.

The QBP brands are run separate, but they all answer to the same boss, and if you think they don't talk to each other than you are foolish. The big reason fatbikes are a popular as they are right now is because QBP was the biggest player to run with'em. They have HUGE distribution. You probably would not be riding a fat bike right now if they did not pick up the ball and run with it.

Surly has given credit to Evingson in their Pugsley designs. He actually helped them design the first one from what I was told by a Surly man.

No, QBP did not invent the market, they made it something from nearly nothing. Just like Trek/Fisher did with 29'ers.

Oh, and it has been like 10 years since Trek bought companies that were poorly run. It is no time to get off their backs about acquiring other companies.
 
#3 ·
When the big boys jump in, expect proprietary parts and marketing BS to explain why their product is better than the bikes we have been using successfully for the last few years.

Probably flasher paint jobs though... :)
 
#4 ·
Yeah, you're probably right. I'm not saying it'll be good or bad if/when they do, I just happen to believe that it will probably happen. However, I'm not connected to the industry & that's why I'm posing the question :)
 
#5 ·
I'm hoping Salsa ends up being the Biggest Boy, and that component companies (Kenda, Mavic etc.) fill in the need for cheaper/lighter parts. Once Special ed, Trek and Cannondale get into it, the lawsuits will start flying. Realistically, look how long it took them to accept 29ers, and they still are holding off on 650B stuff, so I don't see it happening for a while.
 
#8 ·
I watched Salsa and their marketing with the same trepidation some have for the even bigger boys. Bigger players bring more money to the table but they do push out the original innovators. Not much we are going to be able to do about it but it can be hard to watch.
It's hard not to contributeto the problem as well, one of my families bikes is a Mukluk so I don't always practice what I preach.
 
#10 ·
C'mon Kona! I'd like to see their take on the fat.

It's bound to happen, and it's bound to have pros and cons. I don't think Trek or Spec will unveil anything for another few years. Maybe they'll try to get in earlier than they did with 29ers.

I'm interested to see what happens with tires. I saw my first Moonlander in person a few days ago. It made me think that I'll probably wait til the next big growth in tires to sell the Pug.
 
#14 ·
I hope they stay out. they won't bring in enough to the party. And when they don't sell enough....they will say the market was never there.
Thank you to Salsa, Surly,Fatback, 907, Molino, Wildfire, Vicious.. and all the other "Little Guys" that sell out every year.:)
 
#15 ·
The big guys kinda missed out on their chance to grab any mindshare, IMHO.
2012 will go down in history as the year of the fatbike, and they were nowhere to be seen.
If they jump in now, it will just expose them as opportunistic, carpetbagging bandwagoneers.

And, um, it should be mentioned that the Surly/Salsa/QBP syndicate ain't exactly small.
 
#16 ·
I must admit to being surprised Trek hasn't joined the madness yet.

They are known to either steal ideas and if they can't then buy the company (klein a good example)

The only positive I can see from them joining the circus is some parts like wheels and tires might go down in cost
 
#17 ·
I'm comforted in the knowledge that Trek will likely banging their collective heads against the wall for many years, trying to figure out how they can buy Surly and Salsa so they can bleed them dry of innovative ideas, then dump them like a bad habit once said market is established to their shareholders satisfaction. ;)

Bontrager, Klein, Gary Fisher, Lemond, may they all RIP.

sryanak, I hear you, but is it really that different than any other market that develops because of it's actual merits? We saw it with 29ers, full suspension, front suspension, etc.

Or are you just apprehensive of the coming onslaught of conflicted, excited newbs who will contaminate this forum with their indecision? :D
 
#20 ·
I'm comforted in the knowledge that Trek will likely banging their collective heads against the wall for many years, trying to figure out how they can buy Surly and Salsa so they can bleed them dry of innovative ideas, then dump them like a bad habit once said market is established to their shareholders satisfaction. ;)

Bontrager, Klein, Gary Fisher, Lemond, may they all RIP.

sryanak, I hear you, but is it really that different than any other market that develops because of it's actual merits? We saw it with 29ers, full suspension, front suspension, etc.

Or are you just apprehensive of the coming onslaught of conflicted, excited newbs who will contaminate this forum with their indecision? :D
This is a joke right? Qbp already played exactly this role in fatbike development... Seriously wtf.

The current prices, artificial scarcity/demand, proprietary BS even on different bikes from same big building etc.... I can't wait for the 'big' guys to come in.
 
#21 · (Edited)
While riding our Fat-Bikes outside of Madison, Wisconsin today we were passed by a group of four on rental Fat-Bikes (Pugsley's & Moonlander) of course they were smiling ear to ear. When we got back to the shop, the owner said they were from Trek. (That explains the full head to toe Trek/Bontrager kits) Not sure if it meant they worked there or were team riders.
When they get back to Trek on Monday, I'm sure they'll ask the boss, why don't we make anything this fun?
 
#24 ·
Can't wait for a 12k S Works fatty !

I see high technology carbon frames and über light carbon rims as a good thing, regardless of what they will cost.

These bike have a lot of merit for the more mainstream riding public, they offer such a broad range of use, if more people by bicycles, that again, is a good thing.

The Beargrease is an off the shelf bike that is having an appeal that bridges the gap between snow riding and dry trail riding. I see this as a growing trend with fat bikes and being marketed as such.

Personally I find their abilities in technical terrain amazing compared to the usual modern fare, ie AM 26 & 29ers. Not saying they are direct replacements but it's easier to ride the fatties, at a slow pace anyway in techy stuff. When your picking lines, that line becomes bigger and less critical.
 
#26 ·
Just in case anyone missed my little side (snide) comment (or 2silent's not-so-subtle one), there's already a big player involved in fatbikes. That would be QBP - Quality Bicycle Components. QBP owns both Surly and Salsa in full, as well as a bunch of other brands - 45 NRTH, Handspun Wheels, Problem Solvers, Whisky Parts, Foundry Cycles and others. They're also the biggest wholesale distributor of bike parts to shops for a huge number of brands.
See: Quality Bicycle Products: Bikes, Wholesale Bicycle Parts, Wholesale Bicycle distribution

They're a privately held company, so their revenue is not public info, but there's info out on the web saying it was $150 million (gross) back in 2008. Assuming decent growth, it's probably at least $200 mil a year by now. Not exactly in the same league as Trek or Specialized (both around 500 or 600 mil a year?), but not "small" by any measure.

The individual companies work at throwing off that "indie" vibe, but they function more like one of the big guys - design bikes here and manufacture them in Asia. The Surly division is big enough to have a "Brand Manager" - he even blogs about his job on Surly's site.

I have no idea if QBP is a "big evil corporation". You have to decide that using your own criteria. I'm just a consumer, not an industry guy, but I tend to like to know stuff about the companies I buy from. I'd guess most people don't care, as long as the company makes good products and treats them well.
 
#28 ·
I was surprised when I clicked on the QBP link in the post above. Their site boldly states:

"Our consumer brands make wildly unique products that no one else makes. That's because we've got the vision to see a new category's potential, and the resources to make it a reality. We did that with fatbikes and now there are more people riding them than ever before. That's creating whole new revenue streams for dealers. It's core to our mission—find the opportunities that grow our industry."
Rich Tauer, managing director of Q Bike Brands

As a long time Alaska snow biker that has watched (and continues to watch) small time frame builders and other entrpreneurs unafilliated with QBP develop virtually every aspect of Fatbike design, I am deeply offended.

This guy needs to read the sticky at the top of this forum about Fat Bike History. I still occasionaly ride my Evingson frame with original Remolino rims.

Fat Bikes were being made before QBP was involved and will exist long after QBP is dust. Yeah, they had the vision to realize a good thing, and I am grateful to QBP for producing some good Fatbike products. But don't steal credit from others.
 
#32 ·
As a long time Alaska snow biker that has watched (and continues to watch) small time frame builders and other entrpreneurs unafilliated with QBP develop virtually every aspect of Fatbike design, I am deeply offended.

Fat Bikes were being made before QBP was involved and will exist long after QBP is dust. Yeah, they had the vision to realize a good thing, and I am grateful to QBP for producing some good Fatbike products. But don't steal credit from others.
Sorry dont agree with this. Sure there were small time frame manufacturers but Surly and the Pugsley introduced most average cyclists to fat bikes. Surly has always been first at innovating. They gave you 100mm wide wheels and now almost 5" tires and lots of other firsts. Salsa brought in 170 hubs. All QBP companies. So lets show some respect.

Some of you are starting to remind me of my friends who listen to Metal like I do, but they stop listening to bands the minute they get a little famous - because they arent "cool" anymore or have "sold out".
:madman:
 
#31 ·
As someone who races bikes and enjoys a lot of the type of events qbp brands tend to sponsor... I would also state they are not pulling 1/3 of their weight vs. all of the riders, events, teams etc. that are receiving some sort of help from the two larger companies above... instead they play the game of pretending to be 73 "small", "local" companies.
Interesting perspective ... Without further details to refute this............

I've wondered about the Surly/Salsa connection since I first became interested in fatbikes.

A rising tide lifts all ships.
Looking at their branding/partnership ... I think 2silent might be onto something.

There seems to be one ship, and it's ghosting the public via numerous brand names under one parent.
 
#40 ·
Mn resident, not necessarily defending QBP. I have an Origin-8 on order, mostly because Pugs and Salsa are getting to be like opinions; everyone has one. When Trek and Spesh get in on the game, I'll buy an old Pugs and get creative with it; there will be a short window when they're cheap before they get "cool".

I think the market for them is limited, and a significant-enough slice of that market won't buy from one of the really big boys. That leaves some riders, of course, but how many? What kind of sales numbers are required to justify a new offering from the big boys, and at what price point? I'm not a marketing guy, but at the $1800 level I bet it would have to be 10k units, and at that level they have to decide what to steal sales FROM.

From time to time we hear that the bicycle industry hasn't grown in 25 years. The only growth potential, I think, is for a few riders who live in areas that were formerly pretty tough sledding for 6 months a year for regular bikes, plus that narrow segment of early adopters that just have to have the new stuff. I predict that the trickle of new offerings in the fatbike world will come from some of the other low-volume houses first, and Trek and Specialized won't respond until together a dozen or more companies are stealing 10k or more unit-sales from each of them a year.

That will be way more than enough to get the attention of some component suppliers.
 
#44 ·
A 30"+ fat bike? Not sure what a 172mm maxle gets you on a fat bike but I like TAs in general.



I welcome Trek and SpecialEd. They were both wildly late to the game on 29ers but at least in the case of Big S they ultimately delivered some good stuff when they finally jumped in with both feet. No disrespect to Trek, I just don't have any personal experience with them.

In the meantime, I'm just happy Q and its sub-brands keep making it happen...especially as a Minneapplepusser.
 
#48 ·
Sorry dont agree with this. Sure there were small time frame manufacturers but Surly and the Pugsley introduced most average cyclists to fat bikes. Surly has always been first at innovating. They gave you 100mm wide wheels and now almost 5" tires and lots of other firsts. Salsa brought in 170 hubs. All QBP companies. So lets show some respect.
Well, I guess i am showing a little attitude since I am now rolling on Surly tires. In fact I've felt like telling some of the local shops and frame designers the same sentiment you express. We do owe Surly (and now other QBP brands) a great deal of respect for taking the risk a decade ago to start producing 3.7" tires and 65mm rims when it seemed absurd to most folks.

Frame builders could handle the rest of the fatbike equation, given there were already 83mm and 100mm bottom brackets available and Gronewald had shown the small fatbike community how to make do with existing hubs by building offset frames and wheels, but those two critical pieces (moreso the tires) were essential to "get fat".

QBP fat tires and rims have evolved beyond the original Surly fat products. But their first tire, the Endomorph, was basically a copy of the 3.5 inch Remolino sand tire (same chevron tread pattern and all) and the Large Marge was actually step backward from the 82 mm Remolino rims. Speedway Cycles (that designed the Fatback) have been making bikes with 165mm and 170mm hubs for years longer than Salsa. Even 100mm rims like the Weinmann/US Choppers I have on my "new" fatbike have been around for years longer than Surly's Clownshoe.

But yeah, to Duggus's point, and the main focus of this thread, as the fat market grew, there was more room for additional products. And those additional products, if they work well and provide increased enjoyment, attract more riders. Hence the market gets even "fatter" until we reach some kind of an equilibrium when most everyone with an inkling of interest knows of fatbikes and realistically understands their capabilities and limitations, and owns one if they desire to, and can afford what ultimately is likely to be a better and cheaper fatbike than what is now produced.

Competition is good for us fatbikers, and the design evolution will, if anything, speed up when even larger firms become involved that have the financial resources to put significant money into R&D and have the capabilities to mass produce.

As to who brought fatbikes to the average man, well it is obviously Gary Fisher!
 
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