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  1. #1
    humber river advocate
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    humber watershed saturday

    humber watershed sept 22

    The Lithuanians and Semigallians defeat the Livonian Brothers of the Sword in the Battle of Saule... this day and it's last day of summer

    mushrooms!



    on the humber river...

    Last edited by singlesprocket; 09-24-2011 at 08:11 PM. Reason: it is now saturday
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  2. #2
    humber river advocate
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    Humber Bay Arch Bridge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    a very cool project and book has been completed by the humber watershed alliance that documents all the bridges on the humber watershed. the findings are quite interesting and the project has won an award.

    one of the more interesting tidbits was a skirmish occured right here in bolton near one of the old steel bridges (wasn't built then) over the humber on the east side of town.

    Upper Canada Rebellion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Last edited by singlesprocket; 09-23-2011 at 04:17 AM.
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  3. #3
    humber river advocate
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    more pic

    Last edited by singlesprocket; 09-23-2011 at 03:49 AM. Reason: market crunch
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  4. #4
    humber river advocate
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    Canada News: Fear of another recession drives global market carnage - thestar.com

    been following this... wonder when the housing prices will be effected. it will effect available funding for watershed projects... in what direction is hard to say.
    Last edited by singlesprocket; 09-23-2011 at 03:59 AM.
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  5. #5
    namagomi
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    I liked the bicycle ride pictures better...

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by singlesprocket View Post
    Canada News: Fear of another recession drives global market carnage - thestar.com

    been following this... wonder when the housing prices will be effected. it will effect available funding for watershed projects... in what direction is hard to say.
    Unless you are flipping houses for profit it really should not matter what house prices do.

    I just spent a boat load on a house in what people have been calling one of the most over inflated markets in Canada and short term house prices mean diddly. We bought our house planning to live in it for the next 30 years or more. Housing should never be a short term investment.

    “Clearly, the risks of another global recession go up every time we have a day like today,” he said. “My concern is that the weakness in financial markets can come back and hit consumer and business confidence and lead to a real weakening in the economic climate.” This can become a vicious circle, he added, and “at some point you need government policies to break that cycle.”
    This was the only intelligent bit from that article. The media likes to cry wolf with terms like "crisis deepening" and the only thing that is going to come out of it is weak consumer confidence.

  7. #7
    Up, Up, and Away!
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    Quote Originally Posted by shirk View Post
    The media likes to cry wolf with terms like "crisis deepening" and the only thing that is going to come out of it is weak consumer confidence.
    "Disasters" sell newspapers. A lot of newspapers.

  8. #8
    Evil Jr.
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    I would think that as long as overnight interest rates are effectively 0% for the foreseeable future, house prices are still gonna keep going up, especially in growing urban centres. No?
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by garage monster View Post
    I would think that as long as overnight interest rates are effectively 0% for the foreseeable future, house prices are still gonna keep going up, especially in growing urban centres. No?
    Nope. Other than filthy rich people, everyone needs to take out a mortgage to buy a home. If the banks aren't willing or able to lend out the money then people won't be able to secure the funds needed to bid up home prices. Now, here's where it gets fun.

    In Canada we have this thing called the CMHC which insures mortgages, for non-prime mortgages (anything without a minimum of a 20% downpayment) the borrower pays a monthly fee to the CMHC which covers losses (if any) for the bank in the event of a mortgage default & home foreclosure. The last time I checked they were insuring something like $700 billion worth of mortgages with $10 billion or so in assets.

    Which brings us to the next part. Given the asset coverage ratio, there's only so many mortgages that the CMHC will insure before it starts jacking up its fees, and if the CMHC isn't willing to insure them the banks aren't going to lend out the money since they don't want to end up eating any potential losses. Which means lending standards will start tightening back up to historical standards, meaning 20% downpayments and a 30% ratio of mortgage payments to income. Right now we have a crapload of mortgages with 5% down and 60% or greater ratios, in other words people with $30k incomes taking out $350k loans. Once the banks stop handing out those loans, home prices will fall significantly even if interest rates remain near zero.

    Then we have the fact that Canadians on average are now running a negative savings rate and piling up craploads of debt. Historically, this never ends well. Every country where this has happened ends up having its economy implode unless decisive actions are taken to reverse the trend. Then we have events in the rest of the world, overall, the only good thing I can say is that most other countries are ****ed worse.

  10. #10
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by shirk View Post
    Unless you are flipping houses for profit it really should not matter what house prices do.

    I just spent a boat load on a house in what people have been calling one of the most over inflated markets in Canada and short term house prices mean diddly. We bought our house planning to live in it for the next 30 years or more. Housing should never be a short term investment.



    This was the only intelligent bit from that article. The media likes to cry wolf with terms like "crisis deepening" and the only thing that is going to come out of it is weak consumer confidence.
    Sure it does matter what the market does, there is your mortage for one... if some ******* gets foreclosed on it destroys the value of the housing around. TAxes will vary inappropraitly, it screw ups a lot... i mean jesus look at the american housing crash 2 years ago i don't believe how people can just sit there and say some other ******* bad housing assest won't get them.

    Flip bicycles not homes!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by electrik View Post
    Sure it does matter what the market does, there is your mortage for one... if some ******* gets foreclosed on it destroys the value of the housing around. TAxes will vary inappropraitly, it screw ups a lot... i mean jesus look at the american housing crash 2 years ago i don't believe how people can just sit there and say some other ******* bad housing assest won't get them.

    Flip bicycles not homes!
    also effects peoples retirement plans as alot of the money is tied up in RRSP's in which there value are directly related by the falling markets.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by electrik View Post
    Sure it does matter what the market does, there is your mortage for one... if some ******* gets foreclosed on it destroys the value of the housing around. TAxes will vary inappropraitly, it screw ups a lot... i mean jesus look at the american housing crash 2 years ago i don't believe how people can just sit there and say some other ******* bad housing assest won't get them.

    Flip bicycles not homes!
    Your comments don't really make any sense.

    Care you form that into coherent sentences.

  13. #13
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by shirk View Post
    Your comments don't really make any sense.

    Care you form that into coherent sentences.
    No, HTFU.

  14. #14
    No. Just No. Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by electrik View Post
    No, HTFU.
    As a moderator is it wrong for me to think this was pretty funny, given the context and posters involved?

  15. #15
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by Circlip View Post
    As a moderator is it wrong for me to think this was pretty funny, given the context and posters involved?
    Given the other party's attitude further explanation may come across as much namby pamby pandering - i wouldn't want to further infuriate them.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by electrik View Post
    No, HTFU.
    lol.

    If enough of your neighbours are defaulting on their mortgages to affect your property you are the idiot for having bought there in the first place.

    Are you one of those poor suckers aerius pointed out above with less than 5% down and a ratio higher than 60%?

  17. #17
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by shirk View Post
    lol.

    If enough of your neighbours are defaulting on their mortgages to affect your property you are the idiot for having bought there in the first place.

    Are you one of those poor suckers aerius pointed out above with less than 5% down and a ratio higher than 60%?
    Actually if you look about, it only takes one foreclosure to drive down an entire neighbourhood. (my point being that such an event can happen almost anywhere)

  18. #18
    Evil Jr.
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerius View Post
    Which means lending standards will start tightening back up to historical standards, meaning 20% downpayments and a 30% ratio of mortgage payments to income.
    I'm not a mortgage expert but I thought I remembered that the Federal government had tightened the minimum down payment rule after the last melt down.
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  19. #19
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by garage monster View Post
    I'm not a mortgage expert but I thought I remembered that the Federal government had tightened the minimum down payment rule after the last melt down.
    Yup, something like this...

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by garage monster View Post
    I'm not a mortgage expert but I thought I remembered that the Federal government had tightened the minimum down payment rule after the last melt down.
    Yes and no. The Gov tightened the requirements for CMHC backed loans. In 2008 they cut out 0% down 100% mortgages and reduced the period from 40 years to 35. They had only opened these up in 2006, so not a huge timeline of these mortgages out there.

    They also required more proof of income, but again these were only for CMHC backed mortgages. If other lenders wanted to do crazy things they were still free to do so.

    In spring 2011 Flaherty again tightened things up for CMHC backed mortgages. From 35 years max to 30 years. Max refinancing on a CMHC backed mortgage going from 90% to 85%. Also they pulled CMHC backing of lines of credit secured by homes.

    So all they have done is put things back to 2006 rules. Anyone that was purchasing with 0% down on a 40 was a moron. Most of those houses were cookie cutter crap sprawl in the burbs that never should have been built.

  21. #21
    humber river advocate
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    Quote Originally Posted by electrik View Post
    Sure it does matter what the market does, there is your mortage for one... if some ******* gets foreclosed on it destroys the value of the housing around. TAxes will vary inappropraitly, it screw ups a lot... i mean jesus look at the american housing crash 2 years ago i don't believe how people can just sit there and say some other ******* bad housing assest won't get them.

    Flip bicycles not homes!
    there is alot of heads in the sand... people like to justify their purchases and the real estate market feeds into that... it's easy to get them to drink from the koolaid. when you think about it, you are buying something that you will be paying almost double for with just the interest, all the taxes, etc. that's a heck of alot of money to recover... you are also gambling you will have a job to pay for it all and a pension fund when you retire.

    look at the quality of new homes/condos people are buying... talk about crap. i bet alot of them will be condemed in thirty years. good luck on your condo fees...
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  22. #22
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    If the value of the real estate exceeds the value of the house, as it does it many places, then you need a high degree of certainty of a (slight) positive return on the real estate. If you don't have that, you could borrow against your real estate equity but you have to beat inflation plus borrowing costs plus the depreciation of the real estate: almost impossible. Otherwise, it only makes sense to rent, and invest the rest of your money in something else. If you know your timeline, you'll make the right decision. Real estate has appreciated in excess of inflation throughout my entire life, that's a pretty strong trend. I don't think the next years will amount to much though.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kay. View Post
    Real estate has appreciated in excess of inflation throughout my entire life, that's a pretty strong trend. I don't think the next years will amount to much though.
    This is housing price charted against inflation for Calgary, most Canadian urban centres will be fairly similar. This is a bubble if I ever saw one, reversion to mean is not going to be pretty. There will be carnage.


  24. #24
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    lol rent. Why not just roll your money up and burn it.

    If you are realistic you should be able to own something where the amount you pay in mortgage is about equal to what rent would be.

    It's a gamble that you'll have a job??? wtf not very confident in your skills if you call it a gamble that you'll have a job.

  25. #25
    namagomi
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    Quote Originally Posted by shirk View Post
    lol rent. Why not just roll your money up and burn it.

    If you are realistic you should be able to own something where the amount you pay in mortgage is about equal to what rent would be.

    It's a gamble that you'll have a job??? wtf not very confident in your skills if you call it a gamble that you'll have a job.

    lol hey George, do you still want to make every american a home owner??? rofl.

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