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Thread: Predictions

  1. #1
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    Predictions

    Lots of them flying around so I thought I'd start a thread I could easily dredge up later and see how dumb I was.


    Within 10 years electric bikes will account for more than 50% of "bicycle" sales (US)

    ebikes will soon gain near universal access because they will be virtually indistinguishable from bicycles, they'll have to either be allowed or all bikes banned.

    ebikes will create an arms race of sorts because once they're the majority the rest will say fug it and cave in rather than always bringing up the rear of the pack.

    Within 20 years pedal bikes will become the niche market that ridged single speeds are today and only hardcore luddites will ride them.


    feel free to contribute yours
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  2. #2
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    The touchy subject thread will hit 15 pages before the new year, without any resolution.

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    Mountain Bikers will continue ostracize emtbs. emtb'ers will continue to alienate potential allies with demands that they be accepted because they are the future. The acceptance emtb advocates said was "inevitable" never materializes due to lack of advocacy and ownership from emtb owners. emtb sales will tank due to lack of trail access and acceptance from other communities.

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    E bikes will continue to grow as great tools for commuting. And will continue to be banned due to the " no motorized vehicles" rules in certain places on multi use trails.

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    In 10yrs e-bikes will be remotely driven VR vehicles with operators at home sitting in their lazy-boy chairs shredding in virtual reality. No sweating. No injuries after a gnarly crash.
    Safe riding,

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    10 years? That's not much time.

    Status quo will be maintained.

    1. E-MTBs will continue to be banned from many places, strictly in a few areas, loosely in others. Many places will have very vague local laws that can be interpreted either way. Rangers and police will enforce at their own discretion. An e-MTB is not a problem unless the rider makes it a problem.

    2. MTB purists, as a group, will understand that e-MTBs still require physical effort. E-MTBs are good for those who are less-in-shape, but no good for those who are flat out lazy. The vitriol will subside and turn into indifference.

    3. Lazy people, as a group, will understand that e-MTBs still require physical effort. E-MTBs are good for those who are less-in-shape, but no good for those who are flat out lazy. The novelty will subside and turn into indifference.

    4. The used market will be flooded with lower end e-MTBs that have less than 150 miles on them. New e-MTB sales will take a hit as a result. The "fad" will go away, and the e-bike segment will be just that, a segment.

    5. On the commuting side, E-bikes will completely dominate. Nevertheless, the number of gas powered cars on the road will continue to increase.

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    In five years:
    1) Manufacturers still trying to flood this niche market within a niche market.
    2) The "local" forum in OC will intensify vitriol against e-MTB's.

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    In 5 years our cities will be overrun with government promoted and venture capital supported shared bicycles, just like in China now. In order to get people to actually use them, they will then be transitioned into cheap low-power ebikes and soon our cities will be overrun with crappy ebikes instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EricTheDood View Post
    10 years? That's not much time.

    Status quo will be maintained.

    1. E-MTBs will continue to be banned from many places, strictly in a few areas, loosely in others. Many places will have very vague local laws that can be interpreted either way. Rangers and police will enforce at their own discretion. An e-MTB is not a problem unless the rider makes it a problem.

    2. MTB purists, as a group, will understand that e-MTBs still require physical effort. E-MTBs are good for those who are less-in-shape, but no good for those who are flat out lazy. The vitriol will subside and turn into indifference.

    3. Lazy people, as a group, will understand that e-MTBs still require physical effort. E-MTBs are good for those who are less-in-shape, but no good for those who are flat out lazy. The novelty will subside and turn into indifference.

    4. The used market will be flooded with lower end e-MTBs that have less than 150 miles on them. New e-MTB sales will take a hit as a result. The "fad" will go away, and the e-bike segment will be just that, a segment.

    5. On the commuting side, E-bikes will completely dominate. Nevertheless, the number of gas powered cars on the road will continue to increase.
    What he said......

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    Ebikes on the road/bike paths will boom, I'd expect to see them at 50% of the population for commuter types. Since bike types will be impossible to enforce, you'll start seeing speed limits posted on MUTs.

    Emtbs will be everywhere in the magazines, at shows and in stores, but they won't be able to get over the hump with access once higher (750w) emtbs hit the trails and people start bypassing speed limits. This will lead to pushback and access loss in areas that allow access currently, with the federal agencies then refusing to budge from a motorized definition. They will still have access, likely more than just moto legal, but it'll be limited to specific trails or specific trail systems.

    There will be 4 categories of emtbs seen on the trails, Cheap, Moto, Adventure and Sport.

    Cheap - The smallest percentage being cheap chinese bikes, like these:

    Voltbike Enduro - Full suspension electric bicycle with mid drive system

    Which like big box mtbs, you likely won't see many of since they're not really capable off road.

    Moto - The moto crowd will get into emtbs as a way to get a moto-lite experience on trails they can't ride otherwise. That'll be on ebikes like this: https://evnerds.com/electric-vehicle...-bike-sur-ron/

    Which Luna will ofc be selling with pedals. And, of course, there will be the stealth clones. You won't see many of these either, but they'll make a big negative impact when they appear.

    Adventure - Many emtbs will be 250w, optimized for light weight and just enough assist to give you long range for either old slow guys or adventure riding. They will be the emtbs that resemble mtbs the most, and not too off what we see now, just lighter and more refined as the tech improves. PAS only.

    Sport - A sport class with 750w motors, designed for speed and to provide the most fun in the shortest amount of time will develop. Big bikes, long travel made for sessioning and multiple laps. These will either have true 750w motors or ones like the Bafang Max Ultra that can be boosted to 2-3kw. They will diverge from mtbs as the higher torque will allow and require new drivetrains, internal gearboxes and the like. This will also allow changes in frame and suspension design to that adopted from motos. I think we'll see PAS and throttles in this class.

    Kit bikes will be in this catagory as well, but I think their use as mtbs will fade and mostly be used on commuters and DUI bikes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WoodlandHills View Post
    In 5 years our cities will be overrun with government promoted and venture capital supported shared bicycles, just like in China now. In order to get people to actually use them, they will then be transitioned into cheap low-power ebikes and soon our cities will be overrun with crappy ebikes instead.
    Yep

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...trys-arrogance

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    Quote Originally Posted by Harryman View Post
    Kit bikes will be in this catagory as well, but I think their use as mtbs will fade and mostly be used on commuters and DUI bikes.
    LMAO. My wife and I have joked for years about starting a brand of cheap Chinese bikes with the brand name "DUI". The goal would be to get law enforcement agencies to up the DUI fines by $300 and make buying one mandatory. Cha-CHING!

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    Quote Originally Posted by honkinunit View Post
    LMAO. My wife and I have joked for years about starting a brand of cheap Chinese bikes with the brand name "DUI". The goal would be to get law enforcement agencies to up the DUI fines by $300 and make buying one mandatory. Cha-CHING!
    I see Whizzer motors on DUI bikes all the time, at some point, some crafty person will open the DUI Store and sell cheapo wheel kits.

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    eRoad bikes will start becoming more popular, and that will push further adoption of eMTB. The Pinarello is a bellwether. People will buy a road bike that can either be a 19lb nice road bike or a 29lb nice eRoad bike. They will wonder why they can't put an equivalent eMTB on the trails.

    Class 1 will end up being the default for eMTB, and they will be allowed almost everywhere. Class2/3/Outlaw will exist, but won't be common on trails. They *will* be common on the street though.

    Colorado has already mandated that every eBike have a Class sticker permanently affixed beginning 01/01/18. Yes, people will fake them, but there are rule breakers in every aspect of our lives, including MTB. In general, trails that allow ebikes will be signed as "Class 1 Only", and life will go on, just like it does in Europe.

    Every paranoid scare post on here about super high voltage ebikes? Why haven't we seen those from people in Europe where Class 1 is accepted? Because even if 5% are breaking the rules, in the end, everyone drives over the speed limit on the roads and no one cares. People walk their dogs off leash on just about every trail on the Front Range where that is banned, and no one calls for a ban on dogs. You can buy a car off the showroom floor that does 200+ MPH and no one cares. We have laws to deal with lawbreakers, on trails and on roads.

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    Quote Originally Posted by honkinunit View Post
    Colorado has already mandated that every eBike have a Class sticker permanently affixed beginning 01/01/18
    Utah has the same law. I bought an ebike this year. It had no sticker. Turns out no one cares.

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    In 10yrs ebikers will realize that the purists on mtbr were wrong. The largest voting group (old people) will continue to buy the ebikes en-masse. They will demand that they be allowed to ride their bikes on local trails. Boomers will continue to retire and buy ebikes.

    Ebikers will quickly realize that there is no enforcement and ride wherever they want.

    Purists will have to come to the conclusion that playing the role of an alarmist about franken bikes was pure folly. They will have to realize that franken bikes are really a non-starter outside of a track situation. People that actually buy franken bikes will try to ride them without motocross skills or motocross gear will be weeded by Darwin awards. The others that buy them will quickly try to sell them after they realize that they have too much power for skinny tires and not enough stopping power for high speed with skinny tires. People will actually die riding them. Any "good ole boy" that sees one will back up his motocross bike to one and roost away heaping loads of dirt all over the franken ebiker. (banjo music playing in the back ground) No trails will be closed because of the franken ebike.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by honkinunit View Post
    eRoad bikes will start becoming more popular, and that will push further adoption of eMTB. The Pinarello is a bellwether. People will buy a road bike that can either be a 19lb nice road bike or a 29lb nice eRoad bike. They will wonder why they can't put an equivalent eMTB on the trails.

    Class 1 will end up being the default for eMTB, and they will be allowed almost everywhere. Class2/3/Outlaw will exist, but won't be common on trails. They *will* be common on the street though.

    Colorado has already mandated that every eBike have a Class sticker permanently affixed beginning 01/01/18. Yes, people will fake them, but there are rule breakers in every aspect of our lives, including MTB. In general, trails that allow ebikes will be signed as "Class 1 Only", and life will go on, just like it does in Europe.

    Every paranoid scare post on here about super high voltage ebikes? Why haven't we seen those from people in Europe where Class 1 is accepted? Because even if 5% are breaking the rules, in the end, everyone drives over the speed limit on the roads and no one cares. People walk their dogs off leash on just about every trail on the Front Range where that is banned, and no one calls for a ban on dogs. You can buy a car off the showroom floor that does 200+ MPH and no one cares. We have laws to deal with lawbreakers, on trails and on roads.
    Nicely put. I agree.
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    10 years? Much sooner.

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    Remake of the Honda DH bike, in ebike form!

    Predictions-hondarn01.jpg

    I may be saying this out of a joke, but I bet it's gonna happen sooner or later.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dv8zen View Post
    Remake of the Honda DH bike, in ebike form!

    Click image for larger version. 

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    I may be saying this out of a joke, but I bet it's gonna happen sooner or later.
    Haibike already sells a very nice DH bike with a Bosch pedal-assist drive.

    https://www.haibike.com/en-US/US/bik...ro-dwnhll-10-5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Giant Warp View Post
    In 10yrs ebikers will realize that the purists on mtbr were wrong. The largest voting group (old people) will continue to buy the ebikes en-masse. They will demand that they be allowed to ride their bikes on local trails. Boomers will continue to retire and buy ebikes.

    Ebikers will quickly realize that there is no enforcement and ride wherever they want.

    Purists will have to come to the conclusion that playing the role of an alarmist about franken bikes was pure folly. They will have to realize that franken bikes are really a non-starter outside of a track situation. People that actually buy franken bikes will try to ride them without motocross skills or motocross gear will be weeded by Darwin awards. The others that buy them will quickly try to sell them after they realize that they have too much power for skinny tires and not enough stopping power for high speed with skinny tires. People will actually die riding them. Any "good ole boy" that sees one will back up his motocross bike to one and roost away heaping loads of dirt all over the franken ebiker. (banjo music playing in the back ground) No trails will be closed because of the franken ebike.
    Gotta love how bicycle riders are being referred to as "purist" due to sticking to the actual definition of "bicycle". Most of us here are already in the "largest voting group".
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    DJ's finger will continue to make cameo appearances in his photographs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    DJ's finger will continue to make cameo appearances in his photographs.
    Ebike photographs? xD

    Also, regarding that Honda DH bike, it's more the central gearbox (originally rumored to be CVT), Showa "inverted*" fork, the moto-like chassis design... doesn't need to be a DH bike. Could use some more seatpost adjustment range. xD
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    Quote Originally Posted by dv8zen View Post
    Remake of the Honda DH bike, in ebike form!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	hondarn01.jpg 
Views:	28 
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ID:	1175958

    I may be saying this out of a joke, but I bet it's gonna happen sooner or later.
    Kind of already has, with people integrating gearboxes & motors. Not quite as elegant as the Honda though.

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    In ten years the traditional bike will still be around.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Predictions-5216260acdbe4.image-medium-.jpg  


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    I predict e1mtb makers will target high school kids, getting them into programs such as NICA, potentially spawning their own race category.
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Varaxis View Post
    I predict e1mtb makers will target high school kids, getting them into programs such as NICA, potentially spawning their own race category.
    That makes me wonder, if C1 races do become a thing, will it be difficult to tell if the bike has been tinkered with?
    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    Remember, there's always quilting and knitting if pedalling becomes too tough.

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    Perdiction: Market will drive to Class 3

    I have noticed that more and more 28mph commuter bikes are being rolled out. Here is a link to Felt's Sport E 85-HP model.

    Sport E 85-HP - Felt Bicycles

    Note that no where on Felts web catalog does it list this as a Class 3 E-bike, which I believe it is.

    If consumers are given the choice of an e bike that can go 28 mph or 20 mph, without strong guidance that the 28mph bike is class 3, and that it may not be legal everywhere the class 1 20mph bike is legal to ride, then the customer will buy the 28mph bike.

    Bike manufactures, will follow the market and make more and more class 3 bikes.

    Same will happen on mountain bikes. Even if the big companies try to stick to class 1. smaller companies will make class 3 e-mountain bikes. The bigger companies will have to follow suit. While there will be some class 1 bikes sold, the majority will be class 3.

    All the arguments about Class 1 bikes getting access to mountain bike trails will become irreverent.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giant Warp View Post
    In ten years the traditional bike will still be around.
    I still run too! No eShoes!

    Quote Originally Posted by chazpat View Post
    That makes me wonder, if C1 races do become a thing, will it be difficult to tell if the bike has been tinkered with?
    We have a long history of motorsport that has already solved that issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by indytrekracer View Post
    Here is a link to Felt's Sport E 85-HP model.

    Sport E 85-HP - Felt Bicycles
    Cool bike, but I hate the name, makes it sound like the thing has 85 Horse Power.
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    Quote Originally Posted by indytrekracer View Post
    I have noticed that more and more 28mph commuter bikes are being rolled out. Here is a link to Felt's Sport E 85-HP model.

    Sport E 85-HP - Felt Bicycles

    Note that no where on Felts web catalog does it list this as a Class 3 E-bike, which I believe it is.

    If consumers are given the choice of an e bike that can go 28 mph or 20 mph, without strong guidance that the 28mph bike is class 3, and that it may not be legal everywhere the class 1 20mph bike is legal to ride, then the customer will buy the 28mph bike.

    Bike manufactures, will follow the market and make more and more class 3 bikes.

    Same will happen on mountain bikes. Even if the big companies try to stick to class 1. smaller companies will make class 3 e-mountain bikes. The bigger companies will have to follow suit. While there will be some class 1 bikes sold, the majority will be class 3.

    All the arguments about Class 1 bikes getting access to mountain bike trails will become irreverent.
    What do Americans do best? Super size it. I envision modders getting into the emtb access arena and then all hell.

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  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonaid View Post
    What do Americans do best? Super size it. I envision modders getting into the emtb access arena and then all hell.
    If you're going to generalize about 300 million people with a stereotype, at least be more accurate about it.

    Super sizing is simply an increased value proposition. Like getting a larger bag of chips or a season pass, since the price per unit is less. The value diminishes if the extra goes to waste. It's easy to see how paying less than 10% extra gets you more than 25% more product with super sizing. People aren't ordering more calories, else they might be asking for cups full of straight Coca-Cola syrup, or straight fryer grease. They're buying more pleasure and satisfaction from the product.

    How many Americans are shopping Mustangs? Lots of HP for the money, especially with mods. Despite being a popular buy among muscle cars, it's still a niche market, even if you include the modder community putting a LS3 or Hayabusa engine in a sleeper chassis, like a Smart car.

    I actually can't think of any stereotypes for Americans, that isn't a basic human behavior pattern, such as enjoying convenience when time is limited. That brings this back to your reasoning for upgrading/modding. In regards to ebikes, that brings up legality, ethics and social acceptance. People generally play within the laws and within what's socially accepted, else can feel guilt and shame. What can someone do to dispel such guilt? A convenient option is to only self-justify and ignore social judgment and evade the law, else they have to seek to change laws and social judgment to accept them, which is unlikely done by a small number of people.

    Breaking the law and disregarding social norms is criminal behavior. Might not be labeled a criminal until you get caught and formally judged, but it still is criminal behavior. Such people get rejected from society and oppressed in a manner in which they're unlikely to rejoin society on fair terms. I propose that any such suggestive posts about modding (illegal activity) should be heavily moderated. Out of sight, out of mind. Even thinking that there's people out there wanting to mod ebikes to be faster is a dangerous suggestion, due to the nature of conformity. If they can mod ebikes, they can mod regular bikes with motors with less money invested.
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

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    "I propose that any such suggestive posts about modding (illegal activity) should be heavily moderated. Out of sight, out of mind. Even thinking that there's people out there wanting to mod is a dangerous suggestion, due to the nature of conformity."

    You guys do realize that there is a site called endless sphere that has condoned just such activity for the last ten years or better? Overvolted bikes that more closely resemble small moto's have been ridden and advocated by members for years. Stealth e bikes got their following started there among others here and abroad.

    I think what most have found though is that you can have too much power, especially if sticking with bicycle rated components. So they morph in Mo Ped rims and tires, heavy suspension components and make them weigh 125lbs. Fast on the street but a total turd off road. That's why you have seen so many of them in the last decade. Just kidding.

    As a way to shuttle a heavy DH bike a 750w motor is all you need. Those guys get their ya ya's out on the down side and additional weight of a larger watt system would affect handling. In fact I see no need for any more than a torque sensing system and around 750 peak for any type of mtb activity.

    I still predict that there will be no resolution on this forum for at least another year. Did miss the 15 pg prediction by 4 days though, can't win em all.

    Carry on
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigwheel View Post
    I still predict that there will be no resolution on this forum for at least another year.
    I don't think there is a resolution on 650B yet.

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    Every ebike forum I've been on has a section devoted to derestricting and modding/modded ebikes. It's hardly seen there as taboo, more along the lines of driving a few miles over the speed limit. If you don't want to worry about voiding your warranty, or the very small chance you'd get caught with a modded ebike in the jurisdictions that care about such things, nobody there could care less.

    Given human nature, I can guarantee that anywhere class 1 ebikes are allowed, there will also be not-quite class 1 ebikes. Will the sky fall? Nope, but it could be enough to kill ebike access there if enough idiots on fast ebikes show up to be noticed.

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    That's like predicting as long as illegal trails exist, they will be ridden. That the sky won't fall due to it; and also that trails could be closed off due to increasingly disruptive illegal activity.

    So it's all up to people's maturity level and self-control? All the anti-ebikers don't have much faith in this, and are using the flamethrower approach or mass pesticide spraying method. If we get them to stop enough to limit collateral damage, the illegal guys will grow too. I get some bad predictions, if tolerance increases for these modders. Should we not implement some sort of control? The guys who don't want to lose access to illegal trails are wanting to limit people from running events on them (e.g. demos) and don't want people causing trouble in regards to where they park, so they've tried to control by posting images of picking up litter, showing where not to park, etc.
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

  37. #37
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    Predictions-d_989fe2b6c5.jpeg

    Wonder what drivetrain this bike had in mind...
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

  38. #38
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    Here's a prediction for you. The first factory e mtb I saw online 7 years ago was a Haibike with a bosch mid drive. At that time I predicted that e mtb's would be a hard sell here.
    A bike by any other name is still a bike.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Varaxis View Post
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    Wonder what drivetrain this bike had in mind...
    Smug look, arms crossed, e-MTB posing as an MX bike.

    This guy didn't get the memo that MTB-MX crossover went out of fashion nearly 20 years ago.

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by indytrekracer View Post
    I have noticed that more and more 28mph commuter bikes are being rolled out. Here is a link to Felt's Sport E 85-HP model.

    Sport E 85-HP - Felt Bicycles

    Note that no where on Felts web catalog does it list this as a Class 3 E-bike, which I believe it is.

    If consumers are given the choice of an e bike that can go 28 mph or 20 mph, without strong guidance that the 28mph bike is class 3, and that it may not be legal everywhere the class 1 20mph bike is legal to ride, then the customer will buy the 28mph bike.

    Bike manufactures, will follow the market and make more and more class 3 bikes.

    Same will happen on mountain bikes. Even if the big companies try to stick to class 1. smaller companies will make class 3 e-mountain bikes. The bigger companies will have to follow suit. While there will be some class 1 bikes sold, the majority will be class 3.

    All the arguments about Class 1 bikes getting access to mountain bike trails will become irreverent.
    I can't speak for everyone, but I consider myself a fairly aggressive rider. When I'm on my e-MTB, I spend very little time on the two smallest cogs of the cassette. My drivetrain tops out at around 22mph before cadence gets silly.

    In other words, a class 3 e-MTB would be useless to me, as I rarely exceed 20mph unless I'm coasting downhill.

    On the flip side, I find myself on the largest cog quite frequently. I can climb tech with the saddle slammed and flat pedals - climbs that I could only dream of cleaning on a regular bike. I hit these sections at a blistering 4mph. Somebody call the cops.

  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Varaxis View Post
    If you're going to generalize about 300 million people with a stereotype, at least be more accurate about it.

    Super sizing is simply an increased value proposition. Like getting a larger bag of chips or a season pass, since the price per unit is less. The value diminishes if the extra goes to waste. It's easy to see how paying less than 10% extra gets you more than 25% more product with super sizing. People aren't ordering more calories, else they might be asking for cups full of straight Coca-Cola syrup, or straight fryer grease. They're buying more pleasure and satisfaction from the product.

    How many Americans are shopping Mustangs? Lots of HP for the money, especially with mods. Despite being a popular buy among muscle cars, it's still a niche market, even if you include the modder community putting a LS3 or Hayabusa engine in a sleeper chassis, like a Smart car.

    I actually can't think of any stereotypes for Americans, that isn't a basic human behavior pattern, such as enjoying convenience when time is limited. That brings this back to your reasoning for upgrading/modding. In regards to ebikes, that brings up legality, ethics and social acceptance. People generally play within the laws and within what's socially accepted, else can feel guilt and shame. What can someone do to dispel such guilt? A convenient option is to only self-justify and ignore social judgment and evade the law, else they have to seek to change laws and social judgment to accept them, which is unlikely done by a small number of people.

    Breaking the law and disregarding social norms is criminal behavior. Might not be labeled a criminal until you get caught and formally judged, but it still is criminal behavior. Such people get rejected from society and oppressed in a manner in which they're unlikely to rejoin society on fair terms. I propose that any such suggestive posts about modding (illegal activity) should be heavily moderated. Out of sight, out of mind. Even thinking that there's people out there wanting to mod ebikes to be faster is a dangerous suggestion, due to the nature of conformity. If they can mod ebikes, they can mod regular bikes with motors with less money invested.
    Just read this guys blog and you'll understand the issues we're facing.

    https://electricbike-blog.com/2017/0...is-controller/

    And can anyone guess which of these two bikes is the class 1 emtb? Answer down below...
    Predictions-barn.jpg

    Predictions-htb1q6sqi9fd8kjjsszhq6zijfxap.jpg

















    neither... both are over 1000w with throttles. Class 1, 2, 3 or whatever. They still look like mountain bikes. Which is what is most concerning.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonaid View Post
    Just read this guys blog and you'll understand the issues we're facing.

    https://electricbike-blog.com/2017/0...is-controller/
    Land Managers will not like this sentance:
    The Ludicrous 60 amp controller with a 52v battery that has a 50 amp continuous BMS is a wheelie machine. Its stupid powerful in the lower gears and it becomes extremely difficult to keep the front wheel on the ground when you hit the throttle.
    HOH's and Equestrian Groups will use that sort of thing to help shut them out of trails as well.
    Ride Bikes, Drink Craft Beer, Repeat.

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  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klurejr View Post
    HOH's and Equestrian Groups will use that sort of thing to help shut them out of trails as well.
    And then PETA can swoop in and shut out the equestrian groups.

  44. #44
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    Jack a**s activity will happen on the trail, no matter what you ride. The guys with over wattage bikes will get weeded out. No different than guys or gals going way too fast on downhills on mtbs. Same crap another day. Lets just ride and see how things shake out. Fair enough?

    Btw, back to the OP, the true OG, I believe Ill have one more brew ha then sack it in! That is my prediction. 👊
    As a top contributor to the Sierra Club, I can honestly say, the next time you wipe, thank a logger.

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonaid View Post
    Just read this guys blog and you'll understand the issues we're facing.

    https://electricbike-blog.com/2017/0...is-controller/

    And can anyone guess which of these two bikes is the class 1 emtb? Answer down below...
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Click image for larger version. 

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    neither... both are over 1000w with throttles. Class 1, 2, 3 or whatever. They still look like mountain bikes. Which is what is most concerning.
    That guy obviously just wants an electric motorcycle but I guess he doesn't want to pay the insurance, etc. What worries me is this from another article:

    Ebikes in China cost just over $300 on average and they are sold in every Grocery store I set foot in when I was there 10 years ago.

    Granted they will cost a little more here and that they will be total pieces of crap, but that won't stop kids from hitting the trails with them. That's what I'm more worried about.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    Remember, there's always quilting and knitting if pedalling becomes too tough.

  46. #46
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    Over wattage bikes are a kin to people putting V8s in their motorcycles. A complete novelty without any practicality. The franken bike is just more pointless alarmism. In ten years the purist will realize the folly of the franken bike argument. Large amounts of power does not work with narrow tires. Unless you are at pro level quality, tight single track is not compatible with large amounts of power. If one of these bikes passes you, take heart and chuckle to yourself, then keep riding down the trail and find that yahoo wrapped around a tree. I think of the times that someone has passed me on snow covered freeways only to find them sitting in the ditch further down the road. Maybe in ten years the purists will learn the analogy of the big bore mx versus the little bore mx. When you move up to a big bore the lame "little bore" trails that you used to ride are no longer any fun. When you have a big bore you find steeper and more intense trails to get the same adrenalin rush. Those kind of trails don't really appeal to the general hiking populous so there is no danger of the trail getting closed by the "un-ride able" franken bike. Cheers

  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by chazpat View Post
    Granted they will cost a little more here and that they will be total pieces of crap, but that won't stop kids from hitting the trails with them.
    The fact that they're total pieces of crap will absolutely stop them from hitting the trails.

    How many Huffys have you seen on your local trails in the last 20 years?

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricTheDood View Post
    The fact that they're total pieces of crap will absolutely stop them from hitting the trails.

    How many Huffys have you seen on your local trails in the last 20 years?
    On certain trails, I actually see them fairly frequently. I don't expect that many of their riders graduate to "real" mtbs, since I doubt they have a great experience, but I have no way of knowing that. I wouldn't be surprised to see sub $1000 ebikes out on the trails in the same random sort of way, but not a flood of them.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricTheDood View Post
    The fact that they're total pieces of crap will absolutely stop them from hitting the trails.

    How many Huffys have you seen on your local trails in the last 20 years?
    My closest trail is a NPS area. There is a flat section along the river that is very popular with walkers, runners and causal cyclists. It's pretty common for the casual cyclist to see the mountain bike trails that go off from there and decide to give them a try. Also pretty common to see riders without helmets for this same reason. I've come across dads a couple of times asking "did you pass my kids?" But since it is NPS, they shouldn't be on ebikes anyway.

    I've occasionally seen riders on big box bikes on other trail systems. One in particular is accessible from a lot of neighborhoods and has a jump line so it attracts a lot of kids. This system currently is ebike legal.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    Remember, there's always quilting and knitting if pedalling becomes too tough.

  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by chazpat View Post
    My closest trail is a NPS area. There is a flat section along the river that is very popular with walkers, runners and causal cyclists. It's pretty common for the casual cyclist to see the mountain bike trails that go off from there and decide to give them a try. Also pretty common to see riders without helmets for this same reason. I've come across dads a couple of times asking "did you pass my kids?" But since it is NPS, they shouldn't be on ebikes anyway.

    I've occasionally seen riders on big box bikes on other trail systems. One in particular is accessible from a lot of neighborhoods and has a jump line so it attracts a lot of kids. This system currently is ebike legal.
    I'm not too familiar with flatter trails in my area. There are a lot of these parks that are known to be more family-oriented.

    The trails that I like to hit are downhill/enduro oriented and I have yet to see a Wally World bike there.

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonaid View Post
    Just read this guys blog and you'll understand the issues we're facing.

    https://electricbike-blog.com/2017/0...is-controller/

    And can anyone guess which of these two bikes is the class 1 emtb? Answer down below...

    neither... both are over 1000w with throttles. Class 1, 2, 3 or whatever. They still look like mountain bikes. Which is what is most concerning.
    The top one is just a regular bike with a motor attached. Without a massive battery pack, you can't get 50-60 amps out of it. The reviewer uses a backpack battery. There's no way there's a battery in that bike's tubes that can power the motor. I suppose you can argue that it doesn't look too diff from a mtb, besides from the rider's ludicrous power.



    https://lunacycle.com/triangle-52v-p...er-long-range/

    https://lunacycle.com/52v-pansonic-g...ce-long-range/

    With packs of this size, they wouldn't get much range. You can do the math: 24 ah or 17 ah capacity, with a current draw of 50 amps continuous. Seems kind of pricy for joyriding purposes, considering the battery lifespan is 400-1000 cycles and $600+ cost. The 2nd bike you pictured, which looks like a standard factory e-bike, which might be rated at 30 amps max, and at 48v that might allow for 1440 W peak output minus efficiency loss (theoretical, I haven't looked up its exact specs). In contrast, a Shimano STePS e8000 system is 36v, with 504 wh (14 ah) battery with a life of 1000 cycles (60% of original capacity after 1000 cycles), which is estimated to give 20/40/60 miles of range (Boost/Trail/Eco mode).

    https://lunacycle.com/luna-2017-4-se...ire-ebike-khs/ - The ludicrous config with Thudbuster is over $3250.

    Just laying out the missing facts so people don't end up making the same mistake of jumping to conclusions and making uninformed judgments. They don't share many legal privilege with bicycles if they're not class 1, and you can tell 'em apart from the throttle and speed. Are you afraid you'll get questioned if you ride faster than an e1mtb on your regular bike, since people will be on the look-out for such?
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

  52. #52
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    Prediction: we will see at least one OEM introduce an electric mid-drive motor with an internal gearbox. First a simple high/low system to work in conjunction with a rear cassette and then as multi speeds to service a growing superlight eMX market that will develop in the next 24 months.

  53. #53
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    Regenerative braking possibly off the front wheel would be nice for MTB, keeping a disc at the back and mid motor. Could extend the range.

    Fuel cells or other new battery tech (like graphene) could really make it interesting, both increasing range and reducing the weight and space required for current li-po batteries.

    In the UK some sort of vehicle Tax will likely be applied to ebikes to pacify Top Gear / Grand Tour fans and help to pay politicians expenses ................

    Plus Team Honda will win the Tour de France

  54. #54
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    Regenerative braking seems to only be viable with a hub motor, unless you can find a way to link the wheel's rotation back to an induction motor, back through an inverter, and back to the battery. Making me picture a fixie style mid-drive...

    Bosch has working ABS braking prototypes, which might be a feature worth considering for brainless braking.

    Solid state batteries are supposedly the game changer in battery tech. Honda is actually pursuing this tech for their EV introduction. Dunno about fuel cells or carrying any volatile fluid on the bike.
    We're all on the same ship, and it's sinking.

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