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  1. #1
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    OT: How many craft breweries is enough???

    Article in the Camera today says a new craft brewery - FATE - opened in Boulder. Their brewmeister is from the Golden City Brewery. That makes 19 breweries in Boulder - and 10 more are planned!
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    We'll see. Some of them will likely not make it but it should overall bring up the quality of what is brewed. Not that it's bad at the moment, far from it.
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    OT: How many craft breweries is enough???

    Getting worse than the MMJ thing

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    Quote Originally Posted by coxroach View Post
    Getting worse than the MMJ thing
    Legitimate comparison

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    Just wait for RMJ

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    Quote Originally Posted by MK_ View Post
    We'll see. Some of them will likely not make it but it should overall bring up the quality of what is brewed. Not that it's bad at the moment, far from it.
    This is how capitalism works. Adam Smith stuff:

    If the market demands and is willing to pay for a product, suppliers will continue to enter the market.

    At some point supply will exceed demand. At which point prices will fall. Then only the most desirable/highest quality/lowest price suppliers will be able to stay in the market. If craft brewer A needs to charge $4/pint to stay viable (cover costs and make a reasonable profit) and people find cheaper products, or higher quality products for an equal price, craft brewer A will either need to close his doors or borrow money from his parents.
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  7. #7
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    How many breweries is enough?

    N+1, where N is the current number of breweries, of course.
    The correct number of bikes one should own is N+1, where N is the number of bikes currently owned.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    This is how capitalism works. Adam Smith stuff:

    If the market demands and is willing to pay for a product, suppliers will continue to enter the market.

    At some point supply will exceed demand. At which point prices will fall. Then only the most desirable/highest quality/lowest price suppliers will be able to stay in the market. If craft brewer A needs to charge $4/pint to stay viable (cover costs and make a reasonable profit) and people find cheaper products, or higher quality products for an equal price, craft brewer A will either need to close his doors or borrow money from his parents.

    That's funny and spot on. Also brings up the question of VC money....ie who bankrolls these things? Even the most loving parent wouldn't cash in a 401k to finance a beer joint. The last time I asked my old man for cash, it brought him to tears (after striking me across the face that is).

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    This is how capitalism works. Adam Smith stuff:

    If the market demands and is willing to pay for a product, suppliers will continue to enter the market.

    At some point supply will exceed demand. At which point prices will fall. Then only the most desirable/highest quality/lowest price suppliers will be able to stay in the market. If craft brewer A needs to charge $4/pint to stay viable (cover costs and make a reasonable profit) and people find cheaper products, or higher quality products for an equal price, craft brewer A will either need to close his doors or borrow money from his parents.
    Precisely!

    Well said sir.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    This is how capitalism works. Adam Smith stuff:

    If the market demands and is willing to pay for a product, suppliers will continue to enter the market.
    Only there are other variables here - how many bars are there currently in Boulder? This isn't a completely new/ standalone market.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbabuser View Post
    Only there are other variables here - how many bars are there currently in Boulder? This isn't a completely new/ standalone market.
    Sure, there are lots of different places to get alcohol, food, chase intoxicated women, play foosball, etc.

    Economists have formulas for gauging the effect of available Substitute Goods.

    A classic example is peanut butter versus hamburger. As the price of hamburger rises, or as a person's finances get squeezed, at some point he/she will substitute a less expensive, less desirable good for a more expensive or difficult to obtain preferred good.

    For some people, they'll go to anyplace that has beer on tap. They might opt for a cheaper joint where they can drink pbr or bud. Maybe because it's cheaper, maybe because the women there are naughtier, maybe because it has good mexican food, etc.

    Some people specifically dislike craft beers. They would never pay more. For them, a bar that only serves mass-produced domestic beer isn't a substitute good, it's their preferred product.

    I'm somebody who will not bother drinking beer that doesn't please my palate. I'll pay $4-5 pint for good beer, but I won't pay a dollar for a pint of Coors Light. (as a wise man once said, I would not wash my dog's ass with Coors Light).

    I would argue, based on no real knowledge or research whatsoever, that the craft beer/brewpub market is related to but not tied to the overall market for bars and restaurants. If 100 new sports bars that serve your choice of bud light or pbr appeared tomorrow on Pearl Street in Boulder, the craft beer universe would not feel a sizeable disturbance in the force. Again, that is based on almost nothing but pure opinion and ability to type.

    All this crapola is coming from a computer programmer who has some spare time and a 24-year-old BA in Economics from a middle-tier school not noted for the quality of its Economics curriculum. Freely offered, no warranty implied.
    Tom Purvis - Salida, CO - http://teamvelveeta.tom-purvis.com

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  12. #12
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    Its not always about Economics, but sometimes about location as well..

    For example, many agree that the Denver Beer Company doesn't make the greatest beer around, but their location is second to none so they will probably survive, however, if they had a so-so location, they would probably be out of business by now.

    Personally, I like the competition that many breweries offers and hopefully it will help some step their game up, I know a few that could use a kick in the pants..
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    I see the gap between corporate yellow beer drinkers and independent owned craft beer drinkers becoming wider in the future. Will we ever see a Nascar race with LeftHand logos plastered everywhere? No. Not just because they can't afford it, but also the audience isn't their demographic. Now, Avery on the other hand prolly thinks they deserve a Nascar team or something.

    When do you move beyond the craft beer label? Once your brew gets national and advertises in main stream media, I'd say this disqualifies a company from being in the craft family. Just my opinion.


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    Quote Originally Posted by hirschmj View Post
    How many breweries is enough?

    N+1, where N is the current number of breweries, of course.
    Precisely!
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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    This is how capitalism works. Adam Smith stuff:

    If the market demands and is willing to pay for a product, suppliers will continue to enter the market.

    At some point supply will exceed demand. At which point prices will fall. Then only the most desirable/highest quality/lowest price suppliers will be able to stay in the market. If craft brewer A needs to charge $4/pint to stay viable (cover costs and make a reasonable profit) and people find cheaper products, or higher quality products for an equal price, craft brewer A will either need to close his doors or borrow money from his parents.
    Don't you get all Econ-101 on our a$$es. This is BEER, man!

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    I saw a report on the tube about how "government regulation" affects "small business". One company, their phones stopped ringing a few years ago (I can't remember their product) and their business was hurting. The reason their business was hurting, according to the owner? Government regulation of course.

    Next company interviewed was a micro-brewery. Their business was growing, they were hiring. "Government regulations"? They just figured that was a cost of doing businesses, no big deal. Take away what you will from this story but I can tell you that opening a brew pub isn't as risky as some other business. Every time I go into one to do photography, no matter what time, they're busy. People just love to drink good beer and that will never change.
    Last edited by xcguy; 02-05-2013 at 05:36 PM.
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    <snip>

    Economists have formulas
    Goddammit. I warned you. I'm gonna have to kick you in the nuts, Sir!

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles View Post
    Don't you get all Econ-101 on our a$$es. This is BEER, man!
    Now, this is MICRO econ 101. That's the fun stuff. You know I'm right.

    It just occurred to me that you haven't told me to shut my whore mouth for a while. You OK?
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    Now, this is MICRO econ 101. That's the fun stuff. You know I'm right.

    It just occurred to me that you haven't told me to shut my whore mouth for a while. You OK?
    Heh. I don't suppose you're another IT guy with an Econ degree?

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles View Post
    Heh. I don't suppose you're another IT guy with an Econ degree?
    Shut your WHORE mouth!
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  21. #21
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    OT: How many craft breweries is enough???

    To ensure survival, the brewery owners should organize a cartel.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmalling View Post

    When do you move beyond the craft beer label? Once your brew gets national and advertises in main stream media, I'd say this disqualifies a company from being in the craft family. Just my opinion.
    Na Man, I still see Oskar Blues as a Craft Brew but they have national media coverage and another brewery started in Brevard, NC..Home of Pisgah National Forest.

    Oskar Blues opens a New Brewery in Brevard, NC

    Brevard just happens to be my old stomping grounds and where I learned to really Mountain Bike being just 15 minutes from my house.

    The riding there is fantastic by the way!

    <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/goatshell/2289811851/" title="Sissy on Daniel Ridge by Goat in a Turtle Shell, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3204/2289811851_bb022da53d_z.jpg" width="480" height="640" alt="Sissy on Daniel Ridge"></a>

    Anyway, is there enough Craft Breweries? I don't think so. I'm always willing to try a new Stout, Scottish, or Red.

    The Santa Fe Coffee Stout has become my favorite in the past year.

  23. #23
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    The market may support it in Boulder but yeah does seem like the market is getting saturated- maybe some venture capitalists but I always like to blame the trusteefarians for Boulder's special economics. Competition is good, compete or go extinct, or it may just not matter cause it get's overblown in the end...but you got to feel like a sucker spending money at a joint whose beer wouldn't win a homebrew competition.

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    Not sure it has much anything to do with venture capitalists or trustafarians. In the handful of cases I've seen, it's a simple case of people trying to make a living doing what they like to do. like you said Doug, the market will correct at some point.

    I'm pretty sure most of these guys brew well enough to win/place at a homebrew competition. I can only imagine that the biggest hurdles for these guys/gals and their product is consistency and scalability.

    Is it better to follow the "make the beer, they will come" model (Avery a good example) or build a shiny new place in a high traffic area w/ high rent?

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    As you say yourself Doug, compete or go away. There are some great beers being made in Boulder and so if any brewery started up that didn't have quality they would indeed go away.
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  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walt Disney's Frozen Head View Post
    ...Is it better to follow the "make the beer, they will come" model (Avery a good example) or build a shiny new place in a high traffic area w/ high rent?
    That's an interesting observation, and I'll argue that there are two basic groups of of (customer) people. Mexican food restaurants are a good example in a similar world.

    Some people will always choose a shiny new and stylish mexican restaurant regardless of how bland and phony the food. Casa Bonita. The Rio in Boulder. Some people will only go to a mexican restaurant if the food is good and authentic.

    Will you walk into a gnarly dirty old restaurant with bathrooms like you might find in Tijuana in a rough part of town because the food is the real deal? Or do you even know the real deal from the pre-made crap that a restaurant can have Sysco deliver frozen?

    Some people don't know excellent beer from average or marginal beer. But they like sitting in some place that feels aesthetically pleasing. For other people, one sip seals the deal. Doesn't matter where or what the setting is like.

    If you are opening a bar/restaurant hopefully you are aware of that, and understand it. For any establishment, location and aesthetics help. But they come at a cost. Is it worth that cost for what you have planned when opening up your doors? Can you afford to rent a place on the Pearl Street Mall or the 16th Street Mall or LoDo? Would you rather keep some of your venture money in your pocket, choose someplace that isn't great but adequate and focus on quality?

    It's all business strategy. Some people who go into the business get it and know exactly what they're doing, others are applying to the college of hard knocks and hoping for the best.
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  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    <snip> Some people will only go to a mexican restaurant if the food is good and authentic.
    I say pitch the "authentic" part. Nobody knows what "authentic" Mexican food is... Mexico is a really big place, after all. Just go if the food is good - authentic or not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles View Post
    I say pitch the "authentic" part. Nobody knows what "authentic" Mexican food is... Mexico is a really big place, after all. Just go if the food is good - authentic or not.
    Okey Dokey. Yer right. Probably doesn't even matter if you're talking about ethnic food, or beer, or live music. Quality is in the perception of the beholder. For some people setting is at least if not more important than the actual product.

    And Mexico is real big, true dat. The food varies from region to region as much as Uh Merkin food does. I did a trip to Copper Canyon years ago and stayed mostly in the Chihuahua equivalent of bed and breakfasts. Without exception, every meal other than breakfast started with soup. Damn good soup I might add. Most of us probably don't think of soup as "mexican food".
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  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    Damn good soup I might add. Most of us probably don't think of soup as "mexican food".
    Totally agree Tom, I've had great soup in Mexico. My thesis advisor spent a lot of time down there and became a soup aficionado.

    Which makes me think of a possible differentiator for breweries - supply some excellent food. Avery has decent food. Upslope sometimes has a food truck out front. I'm thinking a brewery with great soup and maybe nachos and tapas would be a hit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomP View Post
    Okey Dokey. Yer right. Probably doesn't even matter if you're talking about ethnic food, or beer, or live music. Quality is in the perception of the beholder. For some people setting is at least if not more important than the actual product.

    And Mexico is real big, true dat. The food varies from region to region as much as Uh Merkin food does. I did a trip to Copper Canyon years ago and stayed mostly in the Chihuahua equivalent of bed and breakfasts. Without exception, every meal other than breakfast started with soup. Damn good soup I might add. Most of us probably don't think of soup as "mexican food".
    DUde - was it that crazy noodle soup with a thin tomato/chile broth? That $hit is GOOD.

  31. #31
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    This is good news, there are so many mediocre breweries in Boulder that could (should) be put out of business. IMO... Avery, New Belgium, Upslope, Oscar Blues and Left Hand could disappear tomorrow and I wouldn't miss 'em.
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    You do realize that only two of those are in Boulder, right?
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    Quote Originally Posted by MK_ View Post
    You do realize that only two of those are in Boulder, right?
    lol, yeah... and Boulder Beer could disappear too.
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    I'd like to see Twisted Pine disappear before any of the other you mention. Boulder Beer close second. Wouldn't miss Upslope, neither. Avery, though? They may make a crap load of mediocre beers but their IPA is the best bang for the buck locally. Granted, their quality control needs a kick in the a$$.

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    Forgot about Twisted Pine, I agree...

    I don't know why local breweries can't make decent bottle conditioned beers, or why most "Belgian" style beers put out by local breweries are a pale shadow of the real thing...
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    ok, dave, you want to get rid of Avery, New Belgium, Upslope, Oscar Blues and Left Hand and Twisted Pine. Which ones would you keep?

    FTR, I agree on Twisted Pine, but almost all of the others make at least one redeeming beer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MK_ View Post
    I'd like to see Twisted Pine disappear before any of the other you mention. Boulder Beer close second. Wouldn't miss Upslope, neither. Avery, though? They may make a crap load of mediocre beers but their IPA is the best bang for the buck locally. Granted, their quality control needs a kick in the a$$.

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    I'm still thirsty. Must not be enough?

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    There will be enough craft beers when everyone has a fat bike and one of these:

    OT: How many craft breweries is enough???-i1oemqp.jpg
    Quote Originally Posted by Hernando Gutierrez
    The only thing you have to figure out is don't fall down. To keep riding the bike.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bagwhan View Post
    Which ones would you keep?
    Mountain Sun, O'Dells and Great Divide.

    Making one decent beer isn't good enough...

    Every single Avery beer is horrible, Uplsope is a joke, Oscar Blues is hugely overrated and overpriced... I like Deviant Dale's but $17 for a 4 pack of 16 oz cans is ridiculous. The fact ratebeer gave the regular Dale's a 100 rating is crazy, Dale's is mediocre at best... there are many, many American pale ale's that kill Dale's disgusting ale... I'd rather drink pbr than Dale's.
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    Quote Originally Posted by davec113 View Post
    Mountain Sun, O'Dells and Great Divide.

    Making one decent beer isn't good enough...

    Every single Avery beer is horrible, Uplsope is a joke, Oscar Blues is hugely overrated and overpriced... I like Deviant Dale's but $17 for a 4 pack of 16 oz cans is ridiculous. The fact ratebeer gave the regular Dale's a 100 rating is crazy, Dale's is mediocre at best... there are many, many American pale ale's that kill Dale's disgusting ale... I'd rather drink pbr than Dale's.
    huh?...stop mouthing mtb tires before your beer! Your palate is not working.

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    Don't get the hate for the local breweries. More the merrier. Craft beer wouldn't be where it is today without Avery, Oscar Blues, New Belgium, Odells, ect. THose guys all make great beer.

    Sanitas is another new brewery opening soon. A few long time brewers from Boulder Beer and a guy from Redstone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davec113 View Post
    Mountain Sun, O'Dells and Great Divide.
    Name me one good beer ODells brews. One. That's all.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bipolarbear View Post
    Don't get the hate for the local breweries. More the merrier. Craft beer wouldn't be where it is today without Avery, Oscar Blues, New Belgium, Odells, ect...
    This is really true. We're really fortunate to live in a world with so many choices. Lots of the early artisans got bigger and started distributing nationally. Not my favorite either, but I gotta tell you when I was passing through bum fsck Nebraska in November and needed to stay overnight in one of those little I-80 towns I can't tell you how relieved I was that I had the option to pull some New Belgium brew out of the dinky little liquor store they had there.

    And let me tell you what the 80s were like for a beer drinker with a palate.

    Moosehead, Heinekin, Molson.

    Eventually Sam Adams.

    When Boulder Beer first released a bottle of something with a little puddle of yeast residue at the bottom I thought I'd found heaven.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles View Post
    Name me one good beer ODells brews. One. That's all.

    Levity Amber Ale. Are you going to tell me I can't like the color blue anymore, either?
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbabuser View Post
    Levity Amber Ale. Are you going to tell me I can't like the color blue anymore, either?
    Blue sucks. Green is way better. And St. Lupulin is another fantastic Avery brew.
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    Say what you will about Dale's Pale Ale but it started a revolution with the craft beer in a can. At the time it came out it was pretty much a premier microbrew with decent distribution. Lots has changed in the 10 or so years since. It's a icon. Much like the Fat Tire crap beer; although I rate Dale's Pale Ale much higher.

    _MK
    .
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."
    -- Einstein, Albert

  48. #48
    a dad
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    Quote Originally Posted by davec113 View Post
    Mountain Sun, O'Dells and Great Divide.

    Making one decent beer isn't good enough...

    Every single Avery beer is horrible, Uplsope is a joke, Oscar Blues is hugely overrated and overpriced... I like Deviant Dale's but $17 for a 4 pack of 16 oz cans is ridiculous. The fact ratebeer gave the regular Dale's a 100 rating is crazy, Dale's is mediocre at best... there are many, many American pale ale's that kill Dale's disgusting ale... I'd rather drink pbr than Dale's.
    at least be productive and tell us what beer you do like??
    BBZ

    Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy - Benjamin Franklin

  49. #49
    bacon! bacon! bacon!
    Reputation: SkaredShtles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbabuser View Post
    Levity Amber Ale. Are you going to tell me I can't like the color blue anymore, either?
    Hmmm... interesting. I have not tried that Odell offering. After their 90 Shilling and IPA I kinda gave up.

  50. #50
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    Absolute commentary about something as subjective as "good beer" brings the lulz

    Y'all should bring this topic to that guy from VT

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