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  1. #1
    ridin dirtay
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    Continued wetness maybe?

    I dont generally look into the long leads all that much, but I could't help notice a trend over the next 4 months-ish.

    Green indicated higher than normal precip.

    June/July/August


    July/August/September


    August/September/October


    September/October/November



    Also, the next few weeks look wet, too.
    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

  2. #2
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    I'm over it and I'm certainly not used to all this green. Where is my brown, dry and dead?

    Luckily I've checked these things during ski season and they are rarely correct that far out.

  3. #3
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    Good, now we just need some hail storms!

  4. #4
    bacon! bacon! bacon!
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    Quote Originally Posted by WKD-RDR
    I dont generally look into the long leads all that much, but I could't help notice a trend over the next 4 months-ish.
    It's good you don't generally look into those long-term forecasts because they're generally wild guesses.

  5. #5
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    Where was all of the wetness this past winter, would have made for some killer skiing

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricD4
    Where was all of the wetness this past winter, would have made for some killer skiing
    Yep, Vail only reported 437" and some other Front Range resort only 413"

  7. #7
    not actually bad :)
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    Quote Originally Posted by WKD-RDR
    Green indicated higher than normal precip.
    Higher than normal around here would actually be a good thing!
    Even better if it doesn't interfere with my ride days!!
    Old Codger

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricD4
    Where was all of the wetness this past winter, would have made for some killer skiing


    I had some killer days this year.

  9. #9
    ridin dirtay
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles
    It's good you don't generally look into those long-term forecasts because they're generally wild guesses.
    I hope the NOAA can at least give me an educated guess.
    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

  10. #10
    bacon! bacon! bacon!
    Reputation: SkaredShtles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WKD-RDR
    I hope the NOAA can at least give me an educated guess.
    Problem with weather is that all that education means precisely Jack Squat.

  11. #11
    ridin dirtay
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkaredShtles
    Problem with weather is that all that education means precisely Jack Squat.
    Summer/Fall of '07 they called for above norm precip in the north/central rockies for the coming winter....
    We all know what happened that year.

    I think my beach vacation would not involve Florida this summer, just sayin.
    Last edited by WKD-RDR; 06-03-2009 at 10:23 PM.
    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

  12. #12
    slow
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    Looks like we'll be able to have campfires this summer!

  13. #13
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    I think I recall seeing a presentation that these forecasts are usually decent predictors. The reason they can be useless is because the models predict equal chances ("EC") above or below normal precip for most of the country. But when it project above normal, it's correct often enough that it's worth paying attention.

  14. #14
    skillz to pay billz
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    crazy balls
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  15. #15
    Pivot Rider
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgltrak
    Looks like we'll be able to have campfires this summer!
    WOOT!! [SIZE="1"]of course they might be a bit smokey and sizzly due to the extreme moisture we might be having![/SIZE] I doooo like campfires tho, and s'mores, and ......
    Dirt Divas website l Twitter: @thedirtdivas l Facebook

  16. #16
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    It's crazy. Green Mountain is actually Green!!

  17. #17
    Mojo0115
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    More moisture this summer would be awesome. Conditions were pretty much perfect for riding this afternoon up in the mountains nearby after this recent rain.

  18. #18
    ridin dirtay
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgltrak
    Looks like we'll be able to have campfires this summer!
    plenty of stuff that needs to burn, too
    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

  19. #19
    Oh, So Interesting!
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    Keystone is awesome in the rain.... as long as the lightning stays away.
    .




    Strava: turn off your dork logger when you're not on sanctioned trails.

  20. #20
    Living the High Life
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    Weather forecasting is done with fluid/heat and mass transfer analysis. Its based on data and assumptions. As you get further and further out those assumptions make a significant difference. So yeah, it does become a type of guess for long term forecasts like that.

    And most people on TV don't do it, they just re-hash what they were told. Or I bet they hit the "forecast" button on their computer, my guess is they don't know what that button really does.
    You have just been mentally Rick Roll'd. Yup you're thinking about it right now aren't you? Don't fight it.

  21. #21
    ridin dirtay
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ithnu
    And most people on TV don't do it, they just re-hash what they were told. Or I bet they hit the "forecast" button on their computer, my guess is they don't know what that button really does.
    you callin Kathy dumb, punk?.......................and surely Crystal knows what's goin on....

    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

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