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  1. #1
    fc
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    The rain gods are warming up

    I hate to be the bearer of bad news so good tidings we bring to you and your kin

    The rain gods are warming up-22851780_10155687205073213_5202374122982914308_n.jpg

    Because I heard there was a secret chord...

    Loop of model images

    This is just a forecast but it's been looking better and better each day. It gets more accurate obviously as we get close.

    This means you have to get out and ride today and this weekend. And if it's a cold storm, get your high mountain sessions in now.
    IPA will save America

  2. #2
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    It' about damn time!

  3. #3
    fc
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    National Weather Service, Bay Area.

    The rain gods are warming up-22851831_1662739907134692_2023912364317527207_n-1-.jpg

    They say confidence is high that it will be cold and wet in this 10-day forecast
    IPA will save America

  4. #4
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    Granite Bay

    The rain gods are warming up-img_3442.jpg

    The rain gods are warming up-hso5fwu.png

    The rain gods are warming up-7b34ana.png

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCWages View Post
    It' about damn time!
    Yes, it' is!
    Ain't that a beeyatch.

    Suck on THAT, Trump.

  6. #6
    fc
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    Ok, I looked at 4 forecasts this morning for the Bay Area. One said rain for four days and one said one day. So it's a gaddem crapshoot. Nobody knows right now.

    The only sure thing is it will get dark earlier on Sunday.
    IPA will save America

  7. #7
    AKD
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    Fender's back on the commuter bike and the rain jacket has been dug out of summer storage. Really regretting not getting back up to Tahoe since September though.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by AKD View Post
    Fender's back on the commuter bike and the rain jacket has been dug out of summer storage. Really regretting not getting back up to Tahoe since September though.
    You missed out. Conditions were superb.

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  9. #9
    AKD
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    Quote Originally Posted by zorg View Post
    You missed out. Conditions were superb.

    Sent from my LG-H872 using Tapatalk
    The kindergarten application process in SF is so many times harder, more time-consuming, and more expensive, than applying to college. I now understand why everyone moves to Marin.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by AKD View Post
    The kindergarten application process in SF is so many times harder, more time-consuming, and more expensive, than applying to college. I now understand why everyone moves to Marin.
    I'm about to find that out next year. Can't friggin' wait.

  11. #11
    Hella Olde
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    Quote Originally Posted by AKD View Post
    The kindergarten application process in SF is so many times harder, more time-consuming, and more expensive, than applying to college. I now understand why everyone moves to Marin.

    HAHA I've had 3 in the district and I work for them to boot! Before you ask- we get zero enrollment or registration perks.

  12. #12
    AKD
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    We're really keeping our fingers crossed for our AA. But we have twins, and our AA has 20 applicants per spot. And if we don't get that, we get Cobb, which is a scary proposition (something like 30% are at grade level, everyone else is far behind). I have friends and family that teach for SFUSD, and they all laugh at me for not living in the Richmond or Sunset.

    I don't even think we can afford private school, but we're keeping our options open just in case I magically make partner and/or win the lottery, or get struck by lightning and the family can cash in on my life insurance. My kids got into a mini-WWF match at one of the open houses, so we can scratch at least that school off the list.

  13. #13
    fc
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    lost me here AA
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  14. #14
    AKD
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    lost me here AA
    AA = attendance area school. Not necessarily the school your kid goes to, but it's one of four factors in the SFUSD lottery.

    SFUSD works by lottery (they like to call it choice, but I digress). Most of the top-scoring schools are over-subscribed, where 15, 20, or for a few (Rooftop, Clarendon, etc.) 50-75 applicants vie for each available seat in the incoming class. Admission is determined by tie-breakers, which are (1) does the applicant have a sibling already enrolled; (2) did you go to pre-K or transitional kindergarten feeder for the school; (3) is the applicant from a low-scoring district; and (4) does the student live in the district for the school.

    It's a good idea in theory, but in practice it means many parents of means opt out of the public school system entirely. So all the money that would otherwise go to the school gets sent to the private system instead. And many other negative factors, none of which are really the point of MTBR.

    All of this is making me need to go for a ride to stop stressing out. Good thing it'll be sunny this weekend.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by AKD View Post
    We're really keeping our fingers crossed for our AA. But we have twins, and our AA has 20 applicants per spot. And if we don't get that, we get Cobb
    Cobb (William L.) Elementary School

  16. #16
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    Let's get this winter CRUNK! For the first time in a decade I am not doing a mad scramble to close out work projects before weather hits.

  17. #17
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    please rain gods, rain M-F, but spare my precious weekends…

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Svahn View Post
    Let's get this winter CRUNK! For the first time in a decade I am not doing a mad scramble to close out work projects before weather hits.
    Are your skis ready? Planning one last trip up the mountain we before Thanksgiving.

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  19. #19
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    Negative. But I have the ski bench back ready for the season because I got some pairs of old Xc skis and have been making shot skis out of them. Cmon over and we will try them out!!

  20. #20
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by shapethings View Post
    please rain gods, rain M-F, but spare my precious weekends…
    You don’t ask a lot huh?
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  21. #21
    fc
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    Someone's getting sum.

    The rain gods are warming up-screen-shot-2017-11-01-7.03.23-am.jpg

    In the Bay Area, predictability confidence is low. So we'll just have to wait and see.
    IPA will save America

  22. #22
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    for sure..maybe even early. why?

    because i just dropped my truck off for some repairs and all i have to move to/fro is my motorcycle. i froze my ass coming in to work this morning!
    Santa Cruz 5010 C
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  23. #23
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    Welp, thats the last of the season for Downieville then.

  24. #24
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    Well hell, there's a cyclocross race at Coyote Point on Saturday and we need some sort of mud, dammit. Its November, fer Christ sakes....

  25. #25
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    I just found some interesting forecast tools from the National Weather Service at Climate Prediction Center

    1 month forecast shows above average precipitation, especially around Tahoe


    3 month forecast shows equal chances of above or below average precipitation

  26. #26
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    Hmmm.... that 3 month forecast reminds me of the 2014 (?) winter when we were getting a nice average number of storms and then right about New Year's it just stopped. No more storms for the rest of that season and almost nothing the following season. Hope were not seeing a return of that pattern.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lobster Mike View Post
    Hmmm.... that 3 month forecast reminds me of the 2014 (?) winter when we were getting a nice average number of storms and then right about New Year's it just stopped. No more storms for the rest of that season and almost nothing the following season. Hope were not seeing a return of that pattern.
    That's definitely a possibility, but the "equal chance" wording means to me that it's just as likely that we have a below average, average, or above average year. Right now, the likelihood of one of those scenarios occurring is no greater than the others.

  28. #28
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by peter.thedrake View Post
    That's definitely a possibility, but the "equal chance" wording means to me that it's just as likely that we have a below average, average, or above average year. Right now, the likelihood of one of those scenarios occurring is no greater than the others.
    Thanks for the tools. This weekend looks so unpredictable. But it will be colder for sure and pressure is lowering so that is the opening of the gates.

    We're definitely gonna get some dust-lowering moisture in the next week and that is a gift for sure
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  29. #29
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    Not looking good for the Central Valley, so I'll wash my car to help get things started.
    Ain't that a beeyatch.

    Suck on THAT, Trump.

  30. #30
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    I got one last big ride in up at elevation, above Tahoe City, washed the bike really good, maybe preparing for some bike maintenance for the time being!

    We've had some crazy looking cloud systems moving through Tahoe during the past 14 hours or so.
    And if you no longer go for a gap that exists, you are no longer a racing driver. A. Senna

  31. #31
    fc
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    Nothing here. I’ll lay out all my tools on the patio to help encourage the rain
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  32. #32
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    i left the bike rack on my trailer hitch so it will inevitably rain today. you're welcome everyone.

  33. #33
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    i'm so lazy..my rack stays on my truck.

    it will pour tonight when i need to load my truck for a roadtrip.
    Santa Cruz 5010 C
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  34. #34
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    We got rain around Martinez area.

  35. #35
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    Light sprinkle last night in Marin...where’s that rain

  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by griz View Post
    Light sprinkle last night in Marin...where’s that rain
    Felt like more than a sprinkle in Sausalito, woke me up.
    Gonna try and get a ride in before it rains tonight.

    Does anyone know if Boggs Forest is open? I was gonna try and ride/camp there next weekend if the rain isn't too crazy

  37. #37
    middle ring single track
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    Got 0.03" near Hollister; Henry W Coe SP got 0.051". Hardly worth the trouble but we need every drop!

    Maybe next Thursday???
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

    Windows 10, destroying humanity one upgrade at a time.

  38. #38
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    Good rain right now in Santa Rosa (since mid-morning). Hoping that toxic sludge doesn't get washed into the watersheds.....

  39. #39
    jct
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffsterb View Post
    i left the bike rack on my trailer hitch so it will inevitably rain today. you're welcome everyone.
    you really take your rack off after each use?
    i will not yield to DH traffic.

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by jct View Post
    you really take your rack off after each use?
    No. It hasn’t moved for 6 months. But I tried to squeeze one more day in even with the clouds.

  41. #41
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    Weather people predict almost 1" over the last 24 hours at my house. Received, not even a drop. Sometimes I wonder if they just throw darts at a board! Lol

  42. #42
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    Was raining in walnut creek.

  43. #43
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    Rain in RWC means rain everywhere

  44. #44
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    Not much more than a few drips down here in MoCo.
    Next "chance" is Wed. Night/Thurs. AM early.

    -Freakin' Weather people. That's the PERFECT job I swear. Paid to be wrong ALL the time.
    "There's two kinds of people in this world - Walkers and Talkers." Which one are you?

  45. #45
    fc
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    San Jose Total for the last 3 days... .04 inch

    Santa Cruz and Demo .5 inch <- pretty good.
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  46. #46
    fc
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    This is the best forecast around. Looks like there's time to ride today in the dry.

    Weekend is looking amazing. More rain on Monday and beyond.The rain gods are warming up-23244066_1675496525859030_2155696324381186940_n.jpg


    This is a big rain event North of Santa Rosa.
    IPA will save America

  47. #47
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    Those rain gods sure are taking their time...we got about 5 minutes of sprinkles so far.

  48. #48
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by griz View Post
    Those rain gods sure are taking their time...we got about 5 minutes of sprinkles so far.
    Posturing all day.
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  49. #49
    middle ring single track
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    Looks like the SC mountains got a good dump; up to 2" in places.

    To the east not so much but Coe has gotten 0.63" so far so the ST trails are now closed for at least 48 hours.

    Hardly a drop here in Hollister, less than 0.1".
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

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  50. #50
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    yes. rain. hooray.

    the landlady is replacing the windows and siding on the building i live in.

    there's scaffolding and plastic sheeting to protect the building from the rain while the contractor is working--but the plastic sheeting has blown loose and making that blown-loose-plastic-sheeting-noise in all the wind. all. night. long.

    and the new weather forecast says no rain until monday or tuesday.

    the best part is no riding for me until january at the earliest...

  51. #51
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Looks like the SC mountains got a good dump; up to 2" in places.

    To the east not so much but Coe has gotten 0.63" so far so the ST trails are now closed for at least 48 hours.

    Hardly a drop here in Hollister, less than 0.1".
    INDEED!

    My backyard track is hardly wet but when I looked at the precp map, the numbers are awesome in the mountains. This will get through the Santa Cruz trees and the Demo soil can finally be molded again.

    The rain gods are warming up-screen-shot-2017-11-09-9.34.57-am.jpg

    Forecast for the next six days... about the same as what we just got.
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  52. #52
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    More rain...keep it coming

  53. #53
    fc
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    They're using that 'river' term again.

    Storm fueled by atmospheric river to pummel Sierra in 'biggest storm of the season' so far - SFGate

    "Storm fueled by atmospheric river to pummel Sierra in 'biggest storm of the season' so far"

    The Bay Area hills are wet enough actually. We'll see how much these new ones deliver.
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  54. #54
    middle ring single track
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    Wasn't 'sposed to rain in Hollister last night---but it did. (just a little)

    The air masses coming in from the Pacific have more water in them than the weather people think. Or they need to tweak their forecasting algorithms.
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

    Windows 10, destroying humanity one upgrade at a time.

  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    The Bay Area hills are wet enough actually. We'll see how much these new ones deliver.
    We can take more rain in the north bay...pic is from today.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The rain gods are warming up-41a2a5ae-e624-4776-939d-ac89775aca09.jpg  


  56. #56
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    Check out the Downieville forecast...5.64” of rain tomorrow
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The rain gods are warming up-67bb7c51-6fa8-4526-b635-d60d0c2228df.jpg  

    The rain gods are warming up-da7fc019-421e-46c9-8320-05929046fea6.jpg  


  57. #57
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    The rain gods are warming up-img_4881.jpg

  58. #58
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by griz View Post
    Check out the Downieville forecast...5.64” of rain tomorrow
    Never noticed this day precip forecasts. Cooooo
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  59. #59
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5k bike 50cent legs View Post
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_4881.jpg 
Views:	36 
Size:	57.4 KB 
ID:	1167576
    Nice job 50k
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  60. #60
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    been riding trails in the headlands the last couple days, not anymore wet than usual (theyre generally kinda moist from all the fog)
    hoping to get a ride in tomorrow morning before any rain

  61. #61

  62. #62
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    note to self: building up a new bike in Nov/Dec is probably not the best time of year to do so.

  63. #63
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    It’s sprinkling...here it comes

  64. #64
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by griz View Post
    It’s sprinkling...here it comes
    Shelter in place Griz.
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    Forecast says we're getting .77 TOMORROW here in Monterey County.

    -Commences holding breath........
    "There's two kinds of people in this world - Walkers and Talkers." Which one are you?

  66. #66
    jrm
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    Suns out in Oakland...

  67. #67
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    WTF...where is the rain

  68. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by griz View Post
    WTF...where is the rain
    Not here.....,yet!

    The rain gods are warming up-img_6879.jpg

  69. #69
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    A storm is coming..

  70. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffsterb View Post

    A storm is coming ...
    Fixed it for ya

    ...

  71. #71
    fc
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    just getting started in the South Bay and SC mountains

    The rain gods are warming up-screen-shot-2017-11-16-11.19.39-am.jpg
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  72. #72
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    Holy crap

  73. #73
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    Whoa, what's with the 11.43 sitting right over Carson City? It's been chucking it down all night but nowhere near that much! Mt. Rose is reporting 30" of snow so far
    Ride like a girl!

  74. #74
    fc
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    Quote Originally Posted by mahgnillig View Post
    Whoa, what's with the 11.43 sitting right over Carson City? It's been chucking it down all night but nowhere near that much! Mt. Rose is reporting 30" of snow so far
    that is an anomaly. A squirrel pee'd on that weather station
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    Oakland was supposed to get a break at noon so I went for a lunch run. Of course it dumped on me.

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    We had anywhere from .75 to 1.15 inches of rain in the forecast. . . . .
    -At the current rate we're not even going to get .25!

    CHIT!!
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  77. #77
    jrm
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    2.1"s in 12 hours. Its going to be a couple of days before it percolates into the ground..

  78. #78
    I just wanna go fast!
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMFT View Post
    We had anywhere from .75 to 1.15 inches of rain in the forecast. . . . .
    -At the current rate we're not even going to get .25!

    CHIT!!
    yeah, if you guys could just go ahead and fax us some water down here, that'd be great.

  79. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrm View Post
    2.1"s in 12 hours. Its going to be a couple of days before it percolates into the ground..
    Pretty darn impressive so far in the Bay Area.
    IPA will save America

  80. #80
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    How'd the North Bay do?

  81. #81
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    Based on the rainfall, which weekend day would be better at Tamarancho?

  82. #82
    middle ring single track
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    Well at Coe the forecast said we'd maybe get "only an inch starting around noon" so we went ahead with our usual Thursday trail work; but it was raining pretty good in the parking lot at 9 AM and just about when we were going to call it somebody says "it's letting up". So out we went, and actually the rain was just an occasional sprinkle until about noon at which point it really started to dump right on time. 2.2" the last I checked in on the RAWS rain gauge at around 6 PM.

    The rain gods are warming up-wp_20171116_005.jpg

    The rain gods are warming up-wp_20171116_030.jpg
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

    Windows 10, destroying humanity one upgrade at a time.

  83. #83
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    direct hit on the South Bay Area. Impressive.
    IPA will save America

  84. #84
    Trail Gnome
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    Quote Originally Posted by tburger View Post
    How'd the North Bay do?
    We got steady rain...not heavy though. I’m sure certain trails will be sloppy here and there

  85. #85
    middle ring single track
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    Meanwhile back home in Hollister we've gotten a whopping .25" today. Actually saw some sun and blue sky in the AM. Driving north towards Coe there was a distinct wall of rain from Gilroy north.
    Content here does not officially represent the CA DPR.

    Windows 10, destroying humanity one upgrade at a time.

  86. #86
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    Storm delivered. San Jose, an inch. Demo Forest, 3.3 inches, UC 4 inches, Sierras 6+ inches all in 24 hours.

    Don't ride trail tomorrow. Saturday, be selective. Sunday should be good. Another 3-6 inches is expected next week.

    The rain gods are warming up-screen-shot-2017-11-16-11.19.39-am.jpg
    IPA will save America

  87. #87
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    Pro Tip: Do not unplug the sump pump in your basement before a big rain.

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