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  1. #201
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    I wonder how the levee system in the Sac. Valley will be impacted by this.
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  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRSpalding View Post
    That sounds so laughable right now given the circumstance. They sure could have done it once or twice in 49 years.
    The lake would have to be 100% full. Otherwise, how would you test it? That's not how water storage projects are managed. The emergency spillway is just that. In case of emergency.
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  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    The lake would have to be 100% full. Otherwise, how would you test it? That's not how water storage projects are managed. The emergency spillway is just that. In case of emergency.
    Seems like they should be throttling back on the flow from Folsom and Shasta if they have the ability to do that. That would reduce the flow on the Sacramento River going through the Delta area.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    The lake would have to be 100% full. Otherwise, how would you test it? That's not how water storage projects are managed. The emergency spillway is just that. In case of emergency.
    Yes, but they sure could have done so by using the normal spillway to hold the lake level lower but let the lake level rise up to 901' slowly. I know, I know, that's not how the water projects are managed. But my point is that w/o knowing how the water behaves on the emergency spillway, during an emergency such as the main spillway being damaged, it is even more dangerous. It is inherently dangerous to test it, but then they could have tested it with a normal spillway able to send full capacity downstream w/o as much worry.

  5. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRSpalding View Post
    Yes, but they sure could have done so by using the normal spillway to hold the lake level lower but let the lake level rise up to 901' slowly. I know, I know, that's not how the water projects are managed. But my point is that w/o knowing how the water behaves on the emergency spillway, during an emergency such as the main spillway being damaged, it is even more dangerous. It is inherently dangerous to test it, but then they could have tested it with a normal spillway able to send full capacity downstream w/o as much worry.
    Imagine if the emergency spillway failed during a test. What would be the consequences? Who would be the scapegoat? Imagine the congressional inquiries on how someone would take the risk testing a redundant system designed to be used in an emergency only and putting the lives and livelihoods of everyone downstream at risk.

    Chernobyl failed during a test of a redundant emergency system.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRSpalding View Post
    I wonder why they have never tested the emergency spillway just to make sure it didn't do what it appears to have done now.
    Another reason is engineering hubris; it'll never be needed so why bother? (It'll never sink so why bother with life boats?)

    A more sinister and conspiratorial reason is that "people in the know" knew it could fail because of shortcuts taken.
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  7. #207
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    I wonder how much actual water will be released. I'm a bit worried about reservoir induced seismic activity.

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    I was alarmed when they first started showing the emergency spillway and the lack of rock below it, it was just a concrete footing/shelf with nothing but dirt below it in many places, especially as it got more northerly. That's a prime place for undercutting to take place, and so it did.

  9. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRSpalding View Post
    Yes, but they sure could have done so by using the normal spillway to hold the lake level lower but let the lake level rise up to 901' slowly. I know, I know, that's not how the water projects are managed. But my point is that w/o knowing how the water behaves on the emergency spillway, during an emergency such as the main spillway being damaged, it is even more dangerous. It is inherently dangerous to test it, but then they could have tested it with a normal spillway able to send full capacity downstream w/o as much worry.
    It's all about safety margin. This link posted in the Folsom thread sums it up: https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/02...d-change-that/

    In 1983 the Bureau of Reclamation almost lost Glen Canyon Dam because they failed to anticipate how much runoff was coming from the upper basin states. It was an El Nino year but nobody knew what that meant at the time. Because they were a tad bit embarrassed at how long it took the reservoir to fill (17 years) they didn't lower it enough to accommodate the flow. One of two spillways failed. The engineers didn't account for the cavitation at the bottom of the bend in the tunnel. Keep in mind this tunnel is only 10s of feet from the canyon wall. It basically took raising the dam with sheets of plywood to raise the reservoir level until the remaining spillway could catch up. It was a very very close call.

    Looks like they might be dodging the bullet with Oroville as well. At least for now. No doubt the damage is even greater to the spillway which they will now have to use 24-7 to lower the lake at least 100'. Otherwise, they will not be able to accommodate the runoff from the next series of storms. This, the keystone facility in the CA Water Project is toast.
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  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Allan View Post
    I was alarmed when they first started showing the emergency spillway and the lack of rock below it, it was just a concrete footing/shelf with nothing but dirt below it in many places, especially as it got more northerly. That's a prime place for undercutting to take place, and so it did.
    Yes and they hurriedly wet-set a smattering of boulders and crossed their fingers.
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  11. #211
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    I also stumbled on a report that mentioned the criteria used for flood control planning 50 years ago did not account for the climate change; i.e. "global warming". Some basins fared better, some worse. Not sure about the Feather River.
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  12. #212
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    An evacuation has been ordered for low-lying levels of Oroville, Gridley and several areas downstream from Lake Oroville, the Butte County Sheriff's Office said.


    Evacuation orders issued for low levels of Oroville
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    An evacuation has been ordered for low-lying levels of Oroville, Gridley and several areas downstream from Lake Oroville, the Butte County Sheriff's Office said.


    Evacuation orders issued for low levels of Oroville
    That's old news; where have you been?
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  14. #214
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    Outflow on the broken spillway is 100,000 cfs. There is a serious situation at Nakatomi and they are trying to drain the tub now

    https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO
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  15. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    Outflow on the broken spillway is 100,000 cfs. There is a serious situation at Nakatomi and they are trying to drain the tub now

    https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO
    The emergency spillway can fail soon.
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  16. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    That's old news; where have you been?
    drinkin beer.

    Schiiit, sorry I'm late on the news. Damn.
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  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    The emergency spillway can fail soon.
    Somebody isn't keeping up with current events.
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  18. #218
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    Getting back to testing the emergency spillway; it could easily and safely be done mid-summer in a "normal" year.

    But of course there's the cost of lost water deliveries, lost boat launch fees and lost power generation.

    (and how much is this fiasco going to cost?)
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  19. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    It was an El Nino year but nobody knew what that meant at the time.
    It means "The Boy"

    I learned Spanish by pressing 2 everytime I call DMV.

  20. #220
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    hahahahaha

    Quote Originally Posted by squareback View Post
    It means "The Boy"

    I learned Spanish by pressing 2 everytime I call DMV.
    You're gonna end up in the dog house with fc if you keep this up!
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  21. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    The top 30' of the reservoir. Not sure how many acre feet that equates to but either way not good.
    30 feet of water rushing out will likely scour a channel to make that 30 feet +++++. could stop at 30' or 60' or...

  22. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by squareback View Post
    It means "The Boy"

    I learned Spanish by pressing 2 everytime I call DMV.
    [/thread]

    Thread award goes here. Regardless if the lake drains itself.
    Always ride with a purpose.

  23. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRSpalding View Post
    Based on the live KCRA 3 helicopter footage, I think that they are worried about the left hand side (west?) of the emergency spillway just below the parking lot. It looks like there is a 100' rill developing in towards the base of the spillway.

    Failure means lots of shit will have to be fixed there and downstream a long ways. Even w/o failure, they are going to have to keep the lake drawn down with the normal spillway and electricity production and get in to the emergency spillway and repair it post haste before even thinking about fixing the normal spillway.

    I wonder why they have never tested the emergency spillway just to make sure it didn't do what it appears to have done now.
    Some things can't be easily tested. How do you test the dam itself? The obvious answer is you do extensive modeling based on very extensive site analysis. Then you build in a safety factor of 2x, 3x, 4x, etc depending on various things such as how many people am I going to kill if I get this wrong. Historic weather and flow data would be part of the analysis. If historic data suggests the biggest inflow ever was X, then that part of your model you build in a safety factor of 2x, 3x, 4x, etc. My guess would be the site analysis of the emergency spillway was weak, as were the expectations of it's need. The apparent lack of maintenance or study of the main spillway is another obvious weak point that reveals weak engineering that went into it's design, as well as a cavalier attitude regarding maintenance.

    This is going to cost a shietload to fix.

  24. #224
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    Maintenance is only expensive until crap breaks

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  25. #225
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    130,000 under evacuation. Gridlock.

    30+ schools, 2 hospitals, 1 prison all part of the evac.

    Crazy.


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  26. #226
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    Anyone on here helping with someone evacuating or is everyone just reporting on the train wreck unfolding.
    Wait whuuut, who did he tell you that!?!?....

  27. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMac47 View Post
    Anyone on here helping with someone evacuating or is everyone just reporting on the train wreck unfolding.
    I'll take some evac'ed horses, if they drive 400 miles south.

  28. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronski View Post
    Some things can't be easily tested. How do you test the dam itself? The obvious answer is you do extensive modeling based on very extensive site analysis. Then you build in a safety factor of 2x, 3x, 4x, etc depending on various things such as how many people am I going to kill if I get this wrong. Historic weather and flow data would be part of the analysis. If historic data suggests the biggest inflow ever was X, then that part of your model you build in a safety factor of 2x, 3x, 4x, etc. My guess would be the site analysis of the emergency spillway was weak, as were the expectations of it's need. The apparent lack of maintenance or study of the main spillway is another obvious weak point that reveals weak engineering that went into it's design, as well as a cavalier attitude regarding maintenance.

    This is going to cost a shietload to fix.
    Yep to all the above. They did not do any modeling for water flow down the emergency spillway and probably no or minimal hydrologic and erosional studies and they needed to know the limits before this situation. It's gonna be more expensive to fix it now than if they had discovered problems testing, barring a failure happening during the test, because now it is time and situation critical with the normal spillway also damaged. (And the lake taking in almost 200 Kcfs at times this last week.)

  29. #229
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    Like you, I have been following this all week. I've been streaming a live feed all evening. It's a real cluster.

    This is dramatic. Rough times.

    The question I have not obtained a serious response to, is what is going to happen over the next few weeks to all of the displaced people? How many are they?

    The sword of Damocles indeed.

    And I don't know if it has been brought up here yet, but look at Mosul Dam in Iraq for some contrast.

    I recall Oroville is built in a tectonic fault some as well. Given that was understood (and the climate), It's crazy that the spill way was built in the manner it was.

    87, 97, 2017....what happened in 2007?



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  30. #230
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    Is Emergency spillway virgin earth? Is there a clay interior? Won't it just get soupy and slough away? How do levees resist this soupy failure?

  31. #231
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    Relevant to your interests -- Oroville Dam: Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago

    They claim the emergency spillway was supposed to be able to handle 350,000 CFS. (!)

  32. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by somanygoodbikes View Post
    Relevant to your interests -- Oroville Dam: Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago

    They claim the emergency spillway was supposed to be able to handle 350,000 CFS. (!)
    Wowsers. <---- that's just dirt, not brick.
    Hail, Satan!!

  33. #233
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    Sounds like they dodged another bullet; maybe they'll be able to get the dam low enough to make some fixes.

    The Murky News article RE the Sierra Club et al. suit contains:

    "...A filing on May 26, 2006, by Thomas Berliner, an attorney for the State Water Contractors, and Douglas Adamson, an attorney for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, discounted the risk. It urged FERC to reject the request to require that the emergency spillway be armored, a job that would have cost tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars.

    “The emergency spillway was designed to safely convey the Probable Maximum Flood, and DWR has reviewed and confirmed the efficacy of the PMF hydrologic analysis for Oroville Reservoir,” the attorneys noted.

    Ultimately, they were successful. FERC did not require the state to upgrade the emergency spillway."


    SoCal effin up NorCal; just like in "Cadillac Desert".
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  34. #234
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    200,000 evacuated. National Guard deployed.

    Lake is now at 897 feet, 5 feet below overflow.

    The failure is at the left side of the spillway so they are gonna fill it with a a ton of rock bags.
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  35. #235
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    I commute from the Grass Valley area to Sacramento. There were several dozen abandoned cars along the road. I even saw a few tents pitched along the roadside and lots of motorhomes/trailers wherever they could find room to park for the night.

  36. #236
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    The funny thing about that lawsuit brought by the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League is that had the DWR proposed beefing up the spillway first those groups (at least the first 2) almost certainly would have opposed it.

    Loss of oak woodland, loss of riparian habitat, unsightly man-made structure...

    This is what makes California great.
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  37. #237
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    The real tragedy is how the evacuees are being handled. News reports (tv) report on a few evac centers that are full/then not/then full again, showing traffic ad nauseum and not providing useful information. What they are not doing is providing information of where to go and how to manage the outflow of victims into the outer communities. Can you imagine being in the traffic and hearing the, "all the hotels are booked" and the, "evacuation centers are full." OES has completely failed in its duty as well as the news folks not stepping in! Rant Over.

    The spillway situation is a double maybe even triple failure scenario that was exacerbated by shutting the main spillway down to inspect damages. I'm sure there will some expensive committee set up to find fault, but the emergency spillway is actually doing it's job which is to exceed the 100kcfs capacity of the main spillway in rare event, kind of like a fuse. Otherwise, it would have been called the Second Spillway and it is not. The hydrology of the inflows is not too far off of the predictions so conspiracies aside, this is a tragic case of primary failure of main spillway (which still is not dangerous to main damn structure), past years droughts making managers gun shy, unprecedented continuous and intense rain fall and finally some antiquated water management rules.

    Hope all make it back home safely and without harm or loss of property....

  38. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    The funny thing about that lawsuit brought by the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League is that had the DWR proposed beefing up the spillway first those groups (at least the first 2) almost certainly would have opposed it.

    Loss of oak woodland, loss of riparian habitat, unsightly man-made structure...

    This is what makes California great.
    The same envirowhackos have been demanding for years periodic mass releases from dams to restore riparian habitat. The entire Sac valley used to flood every few years, that is what created the original valley ecosystem.
    Now they are getting exactly what they have been demanding, and pretending to be upset about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dave54 View Post
    The same envirowhackos have been demanding for years periodic mass releases from dams to restore riparian habitat. The entire Sac valley used to flood every few years, that is what created the original valley ecosystem.
    Now they are getting exactly what they have been demanding, and pretending to be upset about it.
    Except back then you still had 90%+ of those riparian habitat available for wildlife disbursement and ecosystem recovery. Wipe out 96% of it due to human acitivity and the situation changes when massive floods happen. You're not thinking clearly here.
    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-wetland-loss.jpg
    http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterr...tralvalley.pdf

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    What a development. And now that the reservoir has started receding and nothing happened (yet) the finger pointing is in full force. I know some national guard folks that go activated last night - I'm guessing as patrols for looters etc. But as mentioned there's more rain coming and we're like what halfway or so through the season?

    The geologist in me is still in awe of the spillway being gone and all that big, beautiful bedrock being exposed though.

    (also 82 people browsing this thread! :waves

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    Let me get this straight; environmental organizations sued to have the spillway reinforced and strengthened —something that would have benefited people, property, habitat, wildlife, and water supply to millions— and lost, but they're also to blame for the events happening now? How, exactly, do you make such an absurd belief even remotely logical in your heads?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dave54 View Post
    The same envirowhackos have been demanding for years periodic mass releases from dams to restore riparian habitat. The entire Sac valley used to flood every few years, that is what created the original valley ecosystem.
    Now they are getting exactly what they have been demanding, and pretending to be upset about it.
    Yes, and where's the harm in higher flows intended to benefit the downstream ecosystem? For example, salmonid habitat. You like salmon, no? As a scientist who studies the downstream effects of dams on rivers (some good, some bad) I find your comment baseless and without merit. Cite your sources.

    Remind me again exactly what are the enviros demanding in this tragic situation?
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    How many cubic yards of sediment went into the river yesterday?

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    You are the one not thinking clearly. Yes, there is less riparian habitat than originally. The various enviro groups have been demanding periodic dam releases to restore what is left. This flood will restore the few remaining pockets. Unfortunately, there will also be great property loss, and the human cost overshadows the minor ecological benefit. Many of the lunatic fringe in the environmental industry do not agree the human cost is too high. They see any ecological benefit, no matter how small, as greater than any human cost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dave54 View Post
    You are the one not thinking clearly. Yes, there is less riparian habitat than originally. The various enviro groups have been demanding periodic dam releases to restore what is left. This flood will restore the few remaining pockets. Unfortunately, there will also be great property loss, and the human cost overshadows the minor ecological benefit. Many of the lunatic fringe in the environmental industry do not agree the human cost is too high. They see any ecological benefit, no matter how small, as greater than any human cost.
    Really? "Environmentalists" —of which I, and many other's here on MTBR are— are cheering the change that people will lose their property, their livelihoods, their lives?

    You lack any credible context or evidence of any of this, because it doesn't exist expect in your angry, prejudiced mind.

    No environmental organization, policy maker, or scientist is cheering these events, and the impacts of planned periodic high water releases —a tried and true technique on dozens of dam controlled rivers across the country— wouldn't impact people's lives or property, period.

  46. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntermos View Post
    Let me get this straight; environmental organizations sued to have the spillway reinforced and strengthened —something that would have benefited people, property, habitat, wildlife, and water supply to millions— and lost, but they're also to blame for the events happening now? How, exactly, do you make such an absurd belief even remotely logical in your heads?
    I see the lawsuit as a nuisance suit to add to the cost of operating dams everywhere. (And to this end limit development of new dams) Even though they lost they won. Collateral damage from what the envirowhackos achieve is that the bureaucratic systems that control our public infrastructure become gun-shy to thinking outside the box and foreseeing events such as what is happening now.

    Oh; and the $$$ spent on fighting that lawsuit could have been applied to some real "shovel" projects.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    What a development. And now that the reservoir has started receding and nothing happened (yet) the finger pointing is in full force. I know some national guard folks that go activated last night - I'm guessing as patrols for looters etc. But as mentioned there's more rain coming and we're like what halfway or so through the season?

    The geologist in me is still in awe of the spillway being gone and all that big, beautiful bedrock being exposed though.

    (also 82 people browsing this thread! :waves
    Hi!!!!


    There is a situation at Nakatomi Plaza indeed.

    There's non-stop trucks, tractors and helicopters now in the staging are. The helis will drop an untold number of 1 ton bags of roack behind that leaking spillway wall.

    No lives lost yet but man, this situation is crazy. There is a big price for that evacuation of 200,000 people. Many had just minutes to leave. Hospitals and even a prison evacuated.
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntermos View Post
    No environmental organization, policy maker, or scientist is cheering these events, and the impacts of planned periodic high water releases —a tried and true technique on dozens of dam controlled rivers across the country— wouldn't impact people's lives or property, period.
    Not so sure; Edward Abbey would be cheering this disaster on.

    You don't think Ed still has followers?
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    My buddy works for Ca-Fire and got an unprecedented (unpresidented ) call last night ordering all firefighters (in NorCal?) to report to their stations. They're mobilizing now to head to the anticipated flood region.

    He says that in the fifteen years he has been on the job he has never had that happen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dave54 View Post
    You are the one not thinking clearly. Yes, there is less riparian habitat than originally. The various enviro groups have been demanding periodic dam releases to restore what is left. This flood will restore the few remaining pockets. Unfortunately, there will also be great property loss, and the human cost overshadows the minor ecological benefit. Many of the lunatic fringe in the environmental industry do not agree the human cost is too high. They see any ecological benefit, no matter how small, as greater than any human cost.
    Enviros as you call them (wildlife biologists, fisheries scientists, geomorphologists) are hardly arguing for uncontrolled spills, evacuations, and loss of life. Generally, the idea is to provide the best science possible in order to provide managers with the information they need to operate dams to benefit all resources. That is, power production, ecosystem, as well as water storage. You should just pipe down unless you have something meaningful to contribute.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    I see the lawsuit as a nuisance suit to add to the cost of operating dams everywhere. (And to this end limit development of new dams) Even though they lost they won. Collateral damage from what the envirowhackos achieve is that the bureaucratic systems that control our public infrastructure become gun-shy to thinking outside the box and foreseeing events such as what is happening now.

    Oh; and the $$$ spent on fighting that lawsuit could have been applied to some real "shovel" projects.
    Seeing as how you seem to believe that everything is a conspiracy, and how everyone that doesn't see the world as you do is a "wacko" of some sort, your opinion is nothing but laughable. You seem to be enjoying this series of events and the nightmare it's causing to 100's of 1000's of people because it plays into your twisted world view where you are the smartest guy in the room. You're not, your fantasies and conspiracy theories notwithstanding, and environmental organizations and those of us that work in the environmental fields, are not what you'd like us to be.

    What other random groupings of people do you like to assign denigrating names like "envirowhackos" to? How does using negative stereotypes and generalizations and insulting people that you don't know make any of your illogical beliefs true or lead anyone to actually believe you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by huntermos View Post
    Seeing as how you seem to believe that everything is a conspiracy, and how everyone that doesn't see the world as you do is a "wacko" of some sort, your opinion is nothing but laughable. You seem to be enjoying this series of events and the nightmare it's causing to 100's of 1000's of people because it plays into your twisted world view where you are the smartest guy in the room. You're not, your fantasies and conspiracy theories notwithstanding, and environmental organizations and those of us that work in the environmental fields, are not what you'd like us to be.

    What other random groupings of people do you like to assign denigrating names like "envirowhackos" to? How does using negative stereotypes and generalizations and insulting people that you don't know make any of your illogical beliefs true or lead anyone to actually believe you?
    If you read this you see environmental groups actually filed a motion to armor the emergency spillway in concrete and were not listened too..

    Oroville Dam: Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago

    "Three environmental groups — the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League — filed a motion with the federal government on Oct. 17, 2005, as part of Oroville Dam’s relicensing process, urging federal officials to require that the dam’s emergency spillway be armored with concrete, rather than remain as an earthen hillside."

  53. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    The funny thing about that lawsuit brought by the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League is that had the DWR proposed beefing up the spillway first those groups (at least the first 2) almost certainly would have opposed it.

    Loss of oak woodland, loss of riparian habitat, unsightly man-made structure...

    This is what makes California great.
    What is this fantasy you speak of? How about looking at the reality that is happening and historic records rather than enflaming with conclusions based on fantasy. "What if..." is fine, coming to a conclusion based on a "What if" is not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by huntermos View Post
    Seeing as how you seem to believe that everything is a conspiracy, and how everyone that doesn't see the world as you do is a "wacko" of some sort, your opinion is nothing but laughable. You seem to be enjoying this series of events and the nightmare it's causing to 100's of 1000's of people because it plays into your twisted world view where you are the smartest guy in the room. You're not, your fantasies and conspiracy theories notwithstanding, and environmental organizations and those of us that work in the environmental fields, are not what you'd like us to be.

    What other random groupings of people do you like to assign denigrating names like "envirowhackos" to? How does using negative stereotypes and generalizations and insulting people that you don't know make any of your illogical beliefs true or lead anyone to actually believe you?
    Actually dave54 used "envirowhackos" and I thought it had a nice ring to it. And of course from my perspective it is you that have a twisted view. Are you getting upset because "the truth hurts"???

    But yes; enough of generalizations and name-calling.

    We should be discussing the life-span of concrete structures and why the DWR chose to repair rather than replace. Will this change policies? Is it time to consider removing the dam altogether?
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    I saw some footage a few days ago before the emergency spillway release, local news was interviewing an old dude, engineer that had worked on the original project. he was saying that they should not try to use emergency spillway at all, that instead they should maximize the release on the damaged spillway and let the rest of it go down into the river and fix it later in year.

    Seems like he had some good insight.

    If they continue to push max out of damaged spillway they will not have to use emergency again, in fact they used the emergency spillway initially on purpose as a test? correct me if i'm wrong.

    I guess the question i have is, was the usage of emergency spillway a voluntary choice they made to lessen the damage to real spillway?

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    Lots of knowledge, passionate people in this little ol' community of mountain bikers.

    How has this dam issue affected any trails, if at all? Least of my worries - just trying to stay on topic :-) Short-term, long-term?

    I'm not familiar with any trails in the area or downstream. Nothing on Trailforks and MTBProject shows a couple trails along Lake Oroville.

    Anyone here affected by the evacuations? I only know a few people up that way - don't yet know their displacement. Thinking about all potential side effects, and just overall logistics, planning, coordination. Pretty immense, as stated already.

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    Back on topic. Photos of headcutting from yesterday. Underestimating the power of water. This, after not even 2 days of 5% max of what the emergency spillway was designed to accommodate. The water at max depth going over the lip was 1.5 feet.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-spillway-issues.jpg

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-spillway-erosion.jpg
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    KCRA (Sacramento's NBC affiliate) has some good video:

    Water stops spilling over Oroville auxiliary spillway

    It also shows how far the damage to the regular spillway is from the dam.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dave54 View Post
    You are the one not thinking clearly. Yes, there is less riparian habitat than originally. The various enviro groups have been demanding periodic dam releases to restore what is left. This flood will restore the few remaining pockets. Unfortunately, there will also be great property loss, and the human cost overshadows the minor ecological benefit. Many of the lunatic fringe in the environmental industry do not agree the human cost is too high. They see any ecological benefit, no matter how small, as greater than any human cost.
    That's quite an accusation and definitely not backed up with any real data. It sure doesn't hold true in my experience working in this field. Sure there are people who fit your description but they are not the majority. I would suggest hanging out with people who actually work in the field and not with the hippie burning-man types.

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    ....
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    Ok... too much politicizing early on. What we need is a huckin kitty fix. Anybody have the skills?Name:  1 copy.jpg
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    Hey, bike related! The emergency spillway will run water down this Freeman Trail beside the dam. It will destroy parts of the trail per predictions.

    Thanks Francis - I posted a bit ago asking about trail damage in the area, didn't see this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    Ok... too much politicizing early on. What we need is a huckin kitty fix. Anybody have the skills?Name:  1 copy.jpg
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    I agree and I love Huck n Kitty.

    Top priority here is to keep people safe. Pres Trump needs to give the money Jerry Brown asked for with no conditions attached.
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  64. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by ziscwg View Post

    Pres Trump needs to give the money Jerry Brown asked for with no conditions attached.
    It'll be interesting to see how that plays out, won't it? Drumpf is known for holding a grudge.
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  65. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    It'll be interesting to see how that plays out, won't it? Drumpf is known for holding a grudge.
    For a state that doesn't want any Federal involvement in their business, it didn't take them long to ask for money or help when their in a pinch. Just sayin...


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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    Back on topic. Photos of headcutting from yesterday. Underestimating the power of water. This, after not even 2 days of 5% max of what the emergency spillway was designed to accommodate. The water at max depth going over the lip was 1.5 feet.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Click image for larger version. 

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    Someone on twitter made the observation that the headcutting you see in the lower photo is near where the "keep off the spillway" fence was. You can see the upper part still in place. Makes sense to me - a bunch of poles and the fence disrupting the (somewhat) laminar flow coming over the spillway would create enough chaotic flow that it just starts eating away.

  67. #267
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    Good video of the auxiliary spillway (and parking lot) in full overflow mode.

    Drone flies over Lake Oroville Auxiliary Spillway | The Sacramento Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwick37 View Post
    For a state that doesn't want any Federal involvement in their business, it didn't take them long to ask for money or help when their in a pinch. Just sayin...


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    Screw that. We can take the money out of what we pay the feds to support all those lazy red states.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    Someone on twitter made the observation that the headcutting you see in the lower photo is near where the "keep off the spillway" fence was. You can see the upper part still in place. Makes sense to me - a bunch of poles and the fence disrupting the (somewhat) laminar flow coming over the spillway would create enough chaotic flow that it just starts eating away.
    Yeah I lifted those off twitter. More pics here: Pixel - California Department of Water Resources

    Unlike the dam and main spillway, it doesn't appear to me that the emergency spillway is anchored to bedrock. It must be because that would be crazy but geez the stop-gap measures they were doing on Friday to shore up the base with boulders and concrete really gives me pause. Those poor dam managers were being faced with some really tough choices. More water over an already damaged main spillway or releasing the top of the lake over an unlined hillside with the fear of undercutting. And 6 to 12,000 cfs was enough to evacuate 200,000. Army Core of Engineers were a tad off on their estimate of 700,000 cfs.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-rocks-base.jpg
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    What are your thoughts regarding how the evacuation went down?

    From how the people acted, to how the emergency response was handled. At about 3:30 PM the Butte County Sheriff posted to their Facebook page that all was normal. At about 4:45 it was panic "THIS IS NOT A DRILL."

    I was surprised at how many people needed to get gas. And then I thought that I only have a 1/4 tank in my truck right now. I wonder how many of those people had dehydrated food, drinking water, etc to take along with them on the evac? I noticed too that CHP didn't open both sides of the freeway in Oroville to get everyone out, so they were stuck with only two lanes to get out of town with everyone else all at once.

    It's crazy to see how quickly stuff breaks down in those situations.
    :wq

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    I hope he holds the coin in front of Moonbeam like a carrot on a stick and then says "YOINK! NO FUNDS FOR YOU, SANCTUARY BOY!"

    Jerry can tap his Rail Project funding.
    Screw that! CA has the sixth largest economy in the world. We have paid more into the Federal coffers than any other single entity. If we need disaster relief, we damn well have earned it!
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    Quote Originally Posted by nachomc View Post
    What are your thoughts regarding how the evacuation went down?...
    Only saw KCRA interview one dude holding his infant. He stated how the evac center had baby supplies, food, diapers, etc. I thought that was nice but such a small piece.

    I'd guess most people planned for 1-2 days max. Same guy quoted as bringing only a pair of clothes and they stored everything up high inside house.

    We need a plan, sad to say we don't have a great detailed plan. Times like that where if you can afford an RV of some kind - if your insurance is in order - ROAD TRIP.

  74. #274
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    Does anybody the lifespan of a concrete dam? Think about Hoover's dam which has been for 80 years or so.

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  75. #275
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    Good question Zorg. For much of our infrastructure which was put in place in the early 50s, it was designed to last 50 to 75 years with the thought that technology would continue to improve and when replacement/upgrades were needed, we would have the ability to replace and make them even better. It just plain didn't happen. Call it deferred maintenance, or neglect, or complacency or whatever and you have what we have today, a crumbling infrastructure. I'd like to believe that dams were constructed to last longer, but sadly that may not be the case.

    Interestingly enough, the concrete structures that the Roman Empire built, are made of a grade of concrete that we can't seem to duplicate today. Many of their structures are still standing.
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  76. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by nachomc View Post
    What are your thoughts regarding how the evacuation went down?

    From how the people acted, to how the emergency response was handled. At about 3:30 PM the Butte County Sheriff posted to their Facebook page that all was normal. At about 4:45 it was panic "THIS IS NOT A DRILL."

    I was surprised at how many people needed to get gas. And then I thought that I only have a 1/4 tank in my truck right now. I wonder how many of those people had dehydrated food, drinking water, etc to take along with them on the evac? I noticed too that CHP didn't open both sides of the freeway in Oroville to get everyone out, so they were stuck with only two lanes to get out of town with everyone else all at once.

    It's crazy to see how quickly stuff breaks down in those situations.
    It went like hell. I'm hearing it was absolute MAYHEM.

    Panic below the dam: evacuees describe chaotic evacuations | The Sacramento Bee

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  77. #277
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    Good question Zorg. For much of our infrastructure which was put in place in the early 50s, it was designed to last 50 to 75 years with the thought that technology would continue to improve and when replacement/upgrades were needed, we would have the ability to replace and make them even better. It just plain didn't happen. Call it deferred maintenance, or neglect, or complacency or whatever and you have what we have today, a crumbling infrastructure. I'd like to believe that dams were constructed to last longer, but sadly that may not be the case.

    Interestingly enough, the concrete structures that the Roman Empire built, are made of a grade of concrete that we can't seem to duplicate today. Many of their structures are still standing.
    ~600 years is usually the number I hear thrown around when the topic comes up with regard to the concrete dams in the Colorado River Storage Project. Not sure about earthen fill like Oroville but I suspect the intended lifespan is similar.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    Screw that. We can take the money out of what we pay the feds to support all those lazy red states.
    Classy statement Bro

    This entire thread is laced with enough political slander that, under normal circumstances, the thread would be locked. But fc is the OP, so...

  79. #279
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    If the dam fails, the water won't care who each person voted for.

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    Fine. In order to keep thread open I promise to not be political by responding to political posts.

    And back on topic, from today's presser apparently:

    "Butte County Sheriff: Evacuation May Not End Until Oroville Dam Fixes Completed"

    That's the part about the evac that bothers me. That could take awhile.

  81. #281
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truckee29 View Post
    Classy statement Bro

    This entire thread is laced with enough political slander that, under normal circumstances, the thread would be locked. But fc is the OP, so...
    Yeah, keep it clean! Or I'm gonna have to ban me, myself and I for posting an inflammatory thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    Yeah, keep it clean! Or I'm gonna have to ban me, myself and I.
    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-363140b62de5c706d97d7c6bb319319f.jpg

  83. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    Good question Zorg. For much of our infrastructure which was put in place in the early 50s, it was designed to last 50 to 75 years with the thought that technology would continue to improve and when replacement/upgrades were needed, we would have the ability to replace and make them even better. It just plain didn't happen. Call it deferred maintenance, or neglect, or complacency or whatever and you have what we have today, a crumbling infrastructure. I'd like to believe that dams were constructed to last longer, but sadly that may not be the case.

    Interestingly enough, the concrete structures that the Roman Empire built, are made of a grade of concrete that we can't seem to duplicate today. Many of their structures are still standing.
    50 to 75 years is what I've frequently seen mentioned like-wise; 1000 year "modern" concrete is said to be possible buts needs immaculately-controlled conditions. I've seen concrete I helped pour as a kid (50 years ago) fall apart and others piece are still good as new. It's all about the conditions.

    That Roman concrete is in structures all loaded in compression; didn't need rebar even if they had it. When modern concrete deteriorates (cracks) and moisture gets to the rebar the failure process has begun. I worry about all the pre-stressed concrete buildings in our cities. One of my very last jobs before retirement was installing decorative covers over the grout sealing the ends of the tensioning cables in an all pre-cast high-rise. Out of sight; out of mind.

    I'd figure that the wear-and-tear a spillway gets would put it in the 50~75 year category. FlexSeal (applied early enough) actually might help prolong it's life.

    Here's a fine example of concrete construction:

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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    Fine. In order to keep thread open I promise to not be political by responding to political posts.

    And back on topic, from today's presser apparently:

    "Butte County Sheriff: Evacuation May Not End Until Oroville Dam Fixes Completed"

    That's the part about the evac that bothers me. That could take awhile.
    The town would be shut down for months.
    :wq

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    The life of a dam is more often affected by sediment build up rather than the concrete itself. They are only a temp fix for a larger problem and then they create an even larger problem than the first problem. lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    ~600 years is usually the number I hear thrown around when the topic comes up with regard to the concrete dams in the Colorado River Storage Project. Not sure about earthen fill like Oroville but I suspect the intended lifespan is similar.
    Yep in 600 years the Hoover Dam will probably be full of silt; the concrete might be fine still---being a massive arch structure primarily loaded in compression.

    The main problem the main dam at Oroville might face is a really big earthquake; it's built over a fault they didn't know was active when they started construction.
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    Have we had any mtbr folks evac'd?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Yep in 600 years the Hoover Dam will probably be full of silt; the concrete might be fine still---being a massive arch structure primarily loaded in compression.

    The main problem the main dam at Oroville might face is a really big earthquake; it's built over a fault they didn't know was active when they started construction.
    Most engineers consider the average dam lifespan to be 50-200 years depending on average sediment load with 100 years being a solid average consensus. I'm not sure how Hoover fares but 600 sounds like a long time.

    https://www.sierracollege.edu/ejourn...1/skillen.html

    https://www.teachengineering.org/les..._dams_lesson08

    Life-span of storage dams - International Water Power

    https://www.fws.gov/habitatconservation/dams.pdf

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    ...potentially a thousand years.

    Quote Originally Posted by JCWages View Post
    Most engineers consider the average dam lifespan to be 50-200 years depending on average sediment load with 100 years being a solid average consensus. I'm not sure how Hoover fares but 600 sounds like a long time.

    https://www.sierracollege.edu/ejourn...1/skillen.html

    https://www.teachengineering.org/les..._dams_lesson08

    Life-span of storage dams - International Water Power

    https://www.fws.gov/habitatconservation/dams.pdf
    From here https://www.nps.gov/lake/learn/natur...-lake-mead.htm this:

    "After the completion of Hoover Dam in 1935, sediment began accumulating in the new reservoir as the flow of the Colorado River was captured by the rising waters of Lake Mead. Initial estimates were that the new reservoir would last a little over 200 years as it filled with fine silt and sand from the high sediment load carried by the Colorado River. However, revised estimates in 1948 based on new data increased the life expectancy of the reservoir to more than four centuries.

    With the completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 upstream of Hoover Dam, sediment volume entering Lake Mead from the Colorado River was reduced to only about a tenth of its previous volume. Much of the sediment is now trapped within Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon Dam. With the reduced sediment input into Lake Mead, the lifetime of the reservoir has been extended to potentially more than a thousand years."
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    fixed?OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-16729199_1847580515509894_3570383328232159634_n.jpg
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwick37 View Post
    For a state that doesn't want any Federal involvement in their business, it didn't take them long to ask for money or help when their in a pinch. Just sayin...


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    [QUOTE=Moe Ped;13039788]Yep in 600 years the Hoover Dam will probably be full of silt; the concrete might be fine still

    I'm no math god but it may fill with silt sooner than that, although conditions are surely different for every situation.

    Our little (1425 acre-foot) Dam, the San Clemente was 90% filled with silt by 2008. It was 91 years old.
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post

    Interestingly enough, the concrete structures that the Roman Empire built, are made of a grade of concrete that we can't seem to duplicate today. Many of their structures are still standing.

    Well daaaaa
    They had lightning cured concrete. Zeus was so pissed at them all the time, they had enough to build 5 empires. Then, they also had Medusa
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    Doing some quick research on the Sierra Club lawsuit yielded some interesting stuff; primarily in the comments section of the FERC Project # 2100 EIS:

    First; the Sierra Club consortium was 100% correct in their accusations about the emergency spillway being faulty---they complained via comment for the above licensing process (which was to continue operating the Oroville system for another 50 years). Being unheeded they unsuccessfully resorted to lawsuit.

    Secondly; the reason we can't find any stuff online about exactly how the dam/spillway was built is because of 9-11---SC et al. also went looking in (prior to) 2005 for info to back up their concerns and was shut down by "security concerns" (Homeland Security?) Of course now the whole world knows that Oroville and lakes like it would be an easy target for a terrorist attack during the flood season---cripple the gates in the down position and sit back.

    Thirdly; even IMBA was involved in Oroville back then---trying to keep equestrians from taking over the trails. Go IMBA!
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    I wonder how the levee system in the Sac. Valley will be impacted by this.
    Unrelated to Oroville, but yeah, levees. Sacramento County to advise Tyler Island residents to evacuate Monday, Feb. 13, 2017 | The Sacramento Bee

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Yep in 600 years the Hoover Dam will probably be full of silt; the concrete might be fine still---being a massive arch structure primarily loaded in compression.

    The main problem the main dam at Oroville might face is a really big earthquake; it's built over a fault they didn't know was active when they started construction.
    uh huh, cite your source fearmongerer.

    The dam is built on hard and durable rocks. Entirely metamorphics: amphibolite, amphibolite schist and greenstones. Old ocean crust scraped onto the continent and quite resistant to erosion. Source:
    http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterr...ta/RTD_101.pdf
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    The fault is mentioned on the Wikipedia, but does not say it's active.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockman View Post
    uh huh, cite your source fearmongerer.

    The dam is built on hard and durable rocks. Entirely metamorphics: amphibolite, amphibolite schist and greenstones. Old ocean crust scraped onto the continent and quite resistant to erosion. Source:
    http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterr...ta/RTD_101.pdf
    Sure: Oroville Dam earthquake investigation may be needed | The Sacramento Bee

    There are others. This is more book-ish: EARTHQUAKE AND LAKE LEVELS AT OROVILLE, CALIFORNIA

    And your reason for linking a 1951 book is?
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    Yeah linking a pre-plate tectonics theory text as backup that there's not a fault near Oroville is an interesting approach. The fault and the earthquake that occurred shortly after Oroville was filled are a pretty well known thing. But you're right the rocks under the dam and under the spillways are super hard metavolcanics. California Geological Survey - Geologic Map of the Chico Quadrangle

    For the non geologists: Those black lines are faults. Solid where none, dashed where inferred. The dam is that little yellow triangle near the center.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-oro-geo.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    But you're right the rocks under the dam and under the spillways are super hard metavolcanics.
    So one would hope, so I have been telling friends all weekend (well not the "metavolcanics" part)... but then why do we have a garage-sized erosion feature advancing right to the toe of the spillway weir after just 36 hours at a paltry flow rate?

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