OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation

[ziscwg]

Yup. I heard 3 million lil fishies have been evacuated.

Swim Forrest Swim

[ziscwg]

Tiles, O-rings, FlexSeal...





I'm going for the Nobel prize; PM me and I'll let you know where to send my check.

Holy crap. That spillway was an old shuttle booster.
Dam, the recycle freaking everything

[ziscwg]

although there were numerous systemic failures, the immediate cause of the challenger disaster was the low temperatures before launch: the rubber o-rings in the SRBs were not capable of performing properly. i don't know much about rubber, but common sense tells us that it's material properties will change w/ temperature (and i bet it has a non-linear coefficient of thermal expansion). maybe beaverbiker or someone else can chime in here. i highly recommend Richard Feynman's book "what do YOU care what other people think", and the section on challenger especially.

it is unlikely a temperature gradient contributed to the failure of the oroville dam spillway.

edited for spelling

So it's Bush's fault for the spillway and Challenger. OK, cool

[Oh My Sack!]

It is game on. 65000 cfs (55,000 spillway and 10,000 powerplant).

Oh great! We all better turn all of our lights and appliances on so we don't end up with an overflow of electricity!

[chuckha62]

So it's Bush's fault for the spillway and Challenger. OK, cool

It was Reagan's fault for the spillway. Come to think of it, it's gotta be Reagan's fault for the Challenger, too. Damned actors!

[JCWages]

Cool aerial footage here.

https://www.facebook.com/KRCR7/videos/1320725897982348/

[dsmxsteve]

Cool aerial footage here.

https://www.facebook.com/KRCR7/videos/1320725897982348/

Great footage there! Thanks for sharing that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JCWages]

Or here
http://www.kcra.com/article/oroville...tinues/8701837

[dth656]

So it's Bush's fault for the spillway and Challenger. OK, cool

*facepalm*

[bluegixxer600]

It's amazing how much of the hillside has eroded already.

[DMFT]

[QUOTE=Moe Ped;13035142]Tiles, O


-Looks like there's a service road right to that exact spot on the right side of the picture...... Coincidence? I think not! Tin-foil hat firmly in place!!

[fc]

Latest prediction and bulletin is that they're not gonna need the emergency spillway.

It'll be close!!

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/...7&span=25hours

[EddyKilowatt]

Anybody know if that powerline going across the hill is the only way for power to get out of the powerhouse?

[John Svahn]

There used to be a race there in at least the 90s and early 2000s. I think it was a Knobular and there was an Oroville Dam Downhill. Is that the trail referenced above?

[DH40]

Water-nerds of the Apocalypse!

[dave54]

It was not flooding when obama was President. Trump gets sworn in and California starts flooding. California voted overwhelmingly for hillary. Coincidence?

[JCWages]

It's getting closer to being real....

[DH40]

I have a '99 Knobular "trophy" which is a plastic water bottle screwed into a faux marble base with a plaque! I was so stoked. But it was from the CA State DH championships at Bear Valley - same folks.

[CrozCountry]

Not the first in time in CA:

[ziscwg]

It was not flooding when obama was President. Trump gets sworn in and California starts flooding. California voted overwhelmingly for hillary. Coincidence?

I think not. We must form our own country now so our flooding stops. I want to be president. My first executive order..........all trails are multi use.


oh, 2nd exec order..............horse owner have to pick up their horse poop

[somanygoodbikes]

899.4 feet now. Not much closer they can cut it.

Redding: Lake Levels: Oroville Dam Levels

[fc]

Here we go. The want it to spillover on the emergency hill at 9am. I think they want to test it so that's why they throttled down the main spillway to 55,000 cfs last night.

That's 40,000 cfs on the emergency spillover. Ho Lee scheet. Get the helicopters and drones ready for filming.

[chuckha62]

I think not. We must form our own country now so our flooding stops. I want to be president. My first executive order..........all trails are multi use.


oh, 2nd exec order..............horse owner have to pick up their horse poop

Now we're getting somewhere. I love progress.

[EddyKilowatt]

They cut back to 55k in order to avoid damaging the power line.

http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsrel...17oroville.pdf

[fc]

900.89 feet. Any minute now.

They're gonna control it by using the main spillway as the water spills over the emergency spillway.

Genius learning opportunity.

[fc]

kcra.com has a good news cast live feed to watch

[dave54]

I think not. We must form our own country now so our flooding stops. I want to be president. My first executive order..........all trails are multi use.

oh, 2nd exec order..............horse owner have to pick up their horse poop

Eliminate the sales tax on all mountain bikes and parts. Even better -- all money spent on new bikes and upgrades is tax deductible.

And tax the sierra club and anti bike organizations. Deport mike vandeman.

[Moe Ped]

Here we go. The want it to spillover on the emergency hill at 9am. I think they want to test it so that's why they throttled down the main spillway to 55,000 cfs last night.

I heard a news blurb to the effect that they cut back to buy time for PG&E to remove those towers.

I wonder if they have back-up power in place to control the flood gates on the spillway?

I also wonder how deep the footing is on the emergency spillway structure? (How much would it take to undercut and fail?)

[Moe Ped]

This report says it started flowing over the emergency spillway around 8 at 5~10,000 cfs.

The article also mentions the cut-back for the PG&E towers.

Lake Oroville within 6 inches of top, increasing likelihood of emergency spillway use | The Sacramento Bee

Apparently an updated link; its headline reads "BREAKING: Lake Oroville flowing over emergency spillway for first time in dam’s history"

[fc]

Here it is. Started happening 5 minutes ago. Seems very slow and controlled for now. Taking a while for water to get past the first road.

kcra.com has a live news feed.

The real genius here is they can learn what will actually happen and throttle it with the main spillway.

[EddyKilowatt]

"I also wonder how deep the footing is on the emergency spillway structure? (How much would it take to undercut and fail?)"

That's the 3,500,000 acre-foot question.

[mestapho]

Is there any way that concrete they're pumping to protect the dam will have close to enough strength by the time they need it?

[Buzzaro]

Is there any way that concrete they're pumping to protect the dam will have close to enough strength by the time they need it?

What work is being done?

[Moe Ped]

Is there any way that concrete they're pumping to protect the dam will have close to enough strength by the time they need it?

Depends if they cheated on the amount of cement they used in the batch

In this modern day and age they probably used one of the quick-curing varieties.

[Moe Ped]

What work is being done?

I'm guessing they were bedding in the boulders they were arranging.

[mestapho]

I'm guessing they were bedding in the boulders they were arranging.

Yeah, you can see them pouring it in one of the KCRA videos.

[cragnshag]

No problem getting strong concrete. You can easily get 6000 psi overnight strength by using accelerating admixtures and a low water-to-cement ratio. Precasters use high early strength concrete so they can reuse the forms the next day. For comparison, your typical city cast-in-place sidewalk is 3000 psi at 28 days.

This stuff works great: http://www.bondedmaterials.net/asset...e_polarset.pdf

[Buzzaro]

Yeah, you can see them pouring it in one of the KCRA videos.

That case it's likely the amount of cement they're pouring will be ready for the water. I'm sure the amount of accelerant being used is giving those trucks just enough time to make it from the plant to the site before it sets up in the truck. Also, concrete cures underwater once its mixed so even if it begins to get wet it will continue to set unless its being eroded completely away.

[cragnshag]

The accelerarting admixture can be added in the truck after driving to the site if the batch plant is not close by.

[cragnshag]

No doubt that a very large batch plant or plants will be set up at the dam site this summer when the spillway gets repaired. A hundred or more good jobs created thanks to mother nature.

[Moe Ped]

No doubt that a very large batch plant or plants will be set up at the dam site this summer when the spillway gets repaired. A hundred or more good jobs created thanks to mother nature.

Too bad all the good workers in the concrete industry will have been deported by then

[sfgiantsfan]

If they can't build it maybe they will pay for it.

[JCWages]

Too bad all the good workers in the concrete industry will have been deported by then

That's was funny. I mean it's not but it is.

[Moe Ped]

That's was funny. I mean it's not but it is.

Of course they'll get green cards and get to return but they'll all be working down south on the wall.

I'm feeling nostalgic:



(BTW that's the Los Gatos Canyon north of Coalinga; not the one between San Jose and Santa Cruz)

[westeast]

So if some damage to the spillway creates good jobs would it be even better if the whole thing went? Maybe we should all run over our bikes too, unless of course yours is made in China (we wouldn't want to create a job for someone overseas). We only want jobs for illegals in the USA since they are the only people who know how to pour concrete.

Great and interesting thread! I hope we can all look back on it as interesting times and not a giant catastrophe.

[levity]

Woody Guthrie, still so relevant, icon of what should make america great

[Moe Ped]

Woody Guthrie, still so relevant, icon of what should make america great

Most apropos segue ever:



Building dams is such a very American activity.

[rockman]

Building dams is such a very American activity.

Not true at all, although the Bureau of Reclamation killed it in the 1950s and 60s. That era is over but the Chinese are upping the ante.

Anyhoo, some pretty cool drone footage.

[Moe Ped]

I'm fascinated by this table; thanks to whoever posted it earlier:

Redding: Lake Levels: Oroville Dam Levels

A little hard to interpret but it looks like the spillway discharge is holding steady at around 55,000 cfs and another 4000 probably going through the powerhouse. (59,771 cfs total at 3:00 PM) Inflow is ramping back up from a low of 77,475 to 79,091. (+/- 20,000 cfs excess) The level indicates a full foot is flowing over the emergency spillway.

For you physics experts out there does a spillover of 20,000 cfs sound right for 1' deep by 300'?

[somanygoodbikes]

It was the best looking top result on Google when I took a quick look last night, but I think they just pull the data from the CDEC.

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

1' deep x 300' height = 300 square feet. To get to 20,000 from that you'd need 6.6 linear feet of flow of that across the top per second. That would be 4.5 miles per hour of spill across the top. Not sure if that is in the ballpark but that's what the math says.

[Moe Ped]

It was the best looking top result on Google when I took a quick look last night, but I think they just pull the data from the CDEC.

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

1' deep x 300' height = 300 square feet. To get to 20,000 from that you'd need 6.6 linear feet of flow of that across the top per second. That would be 4.5 miles per hour of spill across the top. Not sure if that is in the ballpark but that's what the math says.

Thanks!

Right in the ballpark IMHO; 4.5 mph is a brisk walk and what I'd expect.

[ATBScott]

Hmmmm - I think a little mistake: 1' deep by 300' wide (by 1' fore-aft) is 300 cu ft. 20,000 / 300 = 66.7 - that would be closer to 45.5 mph. While I am not sure that is an unattainable speed, it seems high for 1' deep water flow.

[DRSpalding]

If it were 300' by 1' deep, 1 ft/s would be 300 cfs. 20,000 divided by 300 would be 66.7 ft/s, not 6.67. The emergency spillway is roughly three times bigger than that though, at 870' by a rough ruler applied in google earth. If it is a level at 901' pool elevation all the way across, to get 20 Kcfs over it at 1' deep, it would be 20,000 / 870 or 23 ft/s, or 15.7 MPH.

[Moe Ped]

Hmmmm - I think a little mistake: 1' deep by 300' wide (by 1' fore-aft) is 300 cu ft. 20,000 / 300 = 66.7 - that would be closer to 45.5 mph. While I am not sure that is an unattainable speed, it seems high for 1' deep water flow.

Good eye; pays to have calc's checked! There's a whole bunch going here; the shape of the lip, slope of the spillway, yadda yadda. Somewhere that 32 fps per s comes into play. The water in the reservoir is starting to accelerate towards the spillway before it gets to the lip. Complicated.

Guess I need to do some Goggling myself.

[Moe Ped]

If it were 300' by 1' deep, 1 ft/s would be 300 cfs. 20,000 divided by 300 would be 66.7 ft/s, not 6.67. The emergency spillway is roughly three times bigger than that though, at 870' by a rough ruler applied in google earth. If it is a level at 901' pool elevation all the way across, to get 20 Kcfs over it at 1' deep, it would be 20,000 / 870 or 23 ft/s, or 15.7 MPH.

Ooooh. Not sure where I heard 300'; more likely it was 300 yards??? (The "normal" spillway is 200' wide so yes the auxiliary spillway is much wider)

16 mph is also ballpark believable.

[somanygoodbikes]

Thanks for paying more attention to the math than I did That and noting it should be width where I mistakenly said height.

Can't even blame that on not having had coffee yet.

News stations aren't putting up video fast enough to satisfy my curiosity so I've been searching Twitter and FB.

[cmon4day]

I'm guessing they were bedding in the boulders they were arranging.

No need to arrange the boulders. Just use this:

[DRSpalding]

I'm not sure about the full width--if you consider the lip going all the way to the road along the parking lot, it is nearly 1700' long, but I think it is a bit higher up so that if the eastern part of the emergency spillway takes the overflow first. But yes, I think 300 yards is pretty close to the full width of the actual spillway.

[rockman]

Some cool drone footage from near the base of the damaged spillway.

[fc]

Absolutely stunning video of emergency spillway in action. Worked to perfection.

https://twitter.com/KRCR7/status/830563011932811264

[Sidewalk]

I think not. We must form our own country now so our flooding stops. I want to be president. My first executive order..........all trails are multi use.


oh, 2nd exec order..............horse owner have to pick up their horse poop

Horse manure is just undigested grass, it's the dog crap hat's disgusting.



Just subscribing to keep up with the news.

[Oh My Sack!]

That's silly. My first Executive Order would be to ban the manufacture of PF30 BB Shells. For the greater good of all humanity.

[Obi]

Talked w a couple people I know out in East Biggs, they're getting a little antsy w all of this and already have evac plans set and an ability to pack up as much as they like, right now if need be.

Hopefully things don't go there.

[Moe Ped]

For us dam geeks this in chapter 3 on page 61 from here https://www.usbr.gov/tsc/techreferen...dfs/DS14-3.pdf



Looks simple but I'm not going to give it a try until morning!

[Moe Ped]

From the linked table it looks like the reservoir peaked at 3:00 AM and is slowly receding.

Using that "weir" formula I came up with the flow over the aux. spillway at peak of 6700 cfs. Compared to the 55,000 going over the main spillway that's nothing.

That book with the formulas is 253 pages of goodness; even has the exact kind of failure experienced by the main spillway:



"Big Sandy Dam" look familiar?

I wonder if the Oroville crew used "ground penetrating radar" for their spillway inspections!?!?

It also thoroughly explains the how/why of those side drains.

[fc]

Current estimates to fix are at 1-$200 million. Cmon. I think there is zero chance it will be that cheap.

Spillway is 5 football field long and wide. And it's in an inaccessible areas and there will be a shortage of materials and labor. Plus even the top area is suspect.

[Sean Allan]

Current estimates to fix are at 1-$200 million. Cmon. I think there is zero chance it will be that cheap.

Spillway is 5 football field long and wide. And it's in an inaccessible areas and there will be a shortage of materials and labor. Plus even the top area is suspect.

What makes you think there is a shortage of material and labor?

[fc]

What makes you think there is a shortage of material and labor?

In my 30 mile radius, there are what... 200 mudslides, thousands of serious potholes, etc. And that is a tiny fraction of what's going on in the state.

When it dries out, the rebuild will begin and there will be a demand for materials and labor for this type of repair like never before.

I think whoever has the materials, manpower, machinery will reap huge rewards.


Just to fix this 200 foot chasm near my house alone is inconceivable. So yes, there WILL be a shortage, but not yet.

[ATBScott]

With that spillway being more like 900 ft wide, and a 15-ish mph speed all this seems to be much more in order! I had no idea that emergency spillway was that wide - wow!

[fc]

From the linked table it looks like the reservoir peaked at 3:00 AM and is slowly receding.

Using that "weir" formula I came up with the flow over the aux. spillway at peak of 6700 cfs. Compared to the 55,000 going over the main spillway that's nothing.

That book with the formulas is 253 pages of goodness; even has the exact kind of failure experienced by the main spillway:



"Big Sandy Dam" look familiar?

I wonder if the Oroville crew used "ground penetrating radar" for their spillway inspections!?!?

It also thoroughly explains the how/why of those side drains.

No ground inspections, just visual. Just looked at photos. Google Earth i think. LOL.

There's gonna be hell to pay for this and a big investigation since the spillway failed way below the rating on previous patchwork, etc. etc. And the repair bill will be massive.

[CrozCountry]

The big problem will be if the dam collapse and the tsunami breaks the levees in the delta. Those levees are pretty insane, sometimes the water is over 15 feet above the ground around it.

[Moe Ped]

With that spillway being more like 900 ft wide, and a 15-ish mph speed all this seems to be much more in order! I had no idea that emergency spillway was that wide - wow!

I have since stumbled on a document stating 935' with that ogee lip and then 800' more of a different design beyond that.

[Sean Allan]

In my 30 mile radius, there are what... 200 mudslides, thousands of serious potholes, etc. And that is a tiny fraction of what's going on in the state.

When it dries out, the rebuild will begin and there will be a demand for materials and labor for this type of repair like never before.

I think whoever has the materials, manpower, machinery will reap huge rewards.



Just to fix this 200 foot chasm near my house alone is inconceivable. So yes, there WILL be a shortage, but not yet.

You might have a problem locally, but that project will attract interest from around the nation. There will be absolutely no problem finding qualified workers/firms to work on that project. The problem as I've come to find working on projects like this will be getting the engineering/arch. done by the cubicle dwellers in a timely fashion...... Concrete is not a problem in the central valley, especially when money is no object, which is usually the case with Federal/State combo projects. I'm guessing they are lining up pre-qualified bidders as we speak. This is Trumps 'Merica now......

[fc]

The reservoir level is lowering now with outflow greater than inflow. They're looking pretty good now compared to 5 days ago.

- they know the broken spillway can handle up to 65,000 cfs. It's hit bedrock and seems to be stable.

- backup spillway is now tested and ready. No problems at all and can handle quite a bit safely.


That's cool since there's a lot more storms coming shortly. And a big snowpack.

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

[Moe Ped]

KCRA has a recent report stating:

"...As of noon, the inflow into the lake dropped to 51,000 cfs, while outflow was at 54,900 cfs. Water flowing over the emergency spillway was at 8,000 cfs.

Water leaving the lake over the emergency spillway peaked at 12,600 cfs around 1 a.m...."

So I'm pleased with the 6,700 cfs I came up with not really knowing the exact dimensions and conditions

Edit: Plugged in the correct weir dimensions and now get 11,244 cfs; I deserve a Pliny!

[fc]

You might have a problem locally, but that project will attract interest from around the nation. There will be absolutely no problem finding qualified workers/firms to work on that project. The problem as I've come to find working on projects like this will be getting the engineering/arch. done by the cubicle dwellers in a timely fashion...... Concrete is not a problem in the central valley, especially when money is no object, which is usually the case with Federal/State combo projects. I'm guessing they are lining up pre-qualified bidders as we speak. This is Trumps 'Merica now......

Right on. Agreed that this particular slide will be a big deal and is way beyond usual Caltrans Projects.

I think though that the demand for materials and workers will be higher this year than last year. Maybe 2x? Maybe a lot more.

That means big winnings for folks in this business.

There is sooo much that is broken. So much we have learned on what needs work. And a lot of real road problems we don't know about yet.

And the wet season is not over.

[ronski]

Let the evacuations begin..

[Darth Lefty]

Yipe!
Evacuation orders issued for low levels of Oroville

[ronski]

Moe Ped should get busy calc'ing the flow and coverage area/depth after Uncontrolled Release.

[Moe Ped]

Moe Ped should get busy calc'ing the flow and coverage area/depth after Uncontrolled Release.

Moe Ped is a bit of a cynic but thinks they could lose most of the water in the reservoir (not through the dam; through the adjacent mountain).

In which case even Sacramento should think about seeking higher ground. Not to frighten anyone... (If there's more heavy rains)

Telling is that the "official" drone vids stopped yesterday---I think the sun came up this morning and they knew they needed to scramble. The only recent video on YouTube is a taken by a dude from his driveway a long ways across the canyon; it sure looks like the erosion was getting close to the base of the emergency structure. If it goes there's no more control on the Feather River until maybe late summer. What the powerhouse can control is a mere pittance. (BTW I can also see the powerhouse being inundated by reverse flooding due to erosion sediment buildup---oops there goes the cynic again)

[sfgiantsfan]

///////////////

[chuckha62]

Getting serious.

[huntermos]

Telling is that the "official" drone vids stopped yesterday---I think the sun came up this morning and they knew they needed to scramble. The only recent video on YouTube is a taken by a dude from his driveway a long ways across the canyon; it sure looks like the erosion was getting close to the base of the emergency structure. If it goes there's no more control on the Feather River until maybe late summer. What the powerhouse can control is a mere pittance. (BTW I can also see the powerhouse being inundated by reverse flooding due to erosion sediment buildup---oops there goes the cynic again)

The "official drone" video pilot is a friend of mine and a huge MTB and CX rider. I seriously doubt that he's part of some government conspiracy or cover-up to hide an impending disaster. Being that he was called out to work yesterday, on his day off, I'm pretty sure he's enjoying his remaining weekend day off either getting some BC skiing in, or a muddy CX ride in.

[Moe Ped]

Getting serious.

Yup; they're saying evacuate all of Yuba County---go anyway you can; just not towards the dam.

[fourarm]

KCRA live helicopter feed has 40K viewers...

[mestapho]

This is crazy

[TahoeBC]

Those people evacuating have to be freaking out, stop and go traffic leaving, if that facker goes there's gonna be a shitload of cars floating down the Feather

[CrozCountry]

I seriously doubt that he's part of some government conspiracy or cover-up to hide an impending disaster.

Government conspiracies so 2016. It's a Russian conspiracy.

[Finch Platte]

Those people evacuating have to be freaking out, stop and go traffic leaving, if that facker goes there's gonna be a shitload of cars floating down the Feather

Yeah, I would have bailed a lot sooner than this!

[huntermos]

Heh, heh, so true...

[DRSpalding]

I see that they upped the normal spillway to ~100 Kcfs. They are really worried about the emergency spillway eroding somewhere and failing. 0_0

[rockman]

uh yeah, that's a 30' wall that is 900' wide that is holding back over 3,500,000 acre feet of water. Time to go.

[EddyKilowatt]

So how many feet of reservoir level will be released if the emergency spillway erodes and fails. Presumably failure means the curved concrete lip we've all seen, so, several feet at least.

The 3,500,000 acre-foot question remains how far down will it erode before finding solid bedrock.

[JCWages]

Good lord!

[rockman]

So how many feet of reservoir level will be released if the emergency spillway erodes and fails. Presumably failure means the curved concrete lip we've all seen, so, several feet at least.

The 3,500,000 acre-foot question remains how far down will it erode before finding solid bedrock.

The top 30' of the reservoir. Not sure how many acre feet that equates to but either way not good.

[DRSpalding]

Based on the live KCRA 3 helicopter footage, I think that they are worried about the left hand side (west?) of the emergency spillway just below the parking lot. It looks like there is a 100' rill developing in towards the base of the spillway.

Failure means lots of shit will have to be fixed there and downstream a long ways. Even w/o failure, they are going to have to keep the lake drawn down with the normal spillway and electricity production and get in to the emergency spillway and repair it post haste before even thinking about fixing the normal spillway.

I wonder why they have never tested the emergency spillway just to make sure it didn't do what it appears to have done now.

[Moe Ped]

I wonder why they have never tested the emergency spillway just to make sure it didn't do what it appears to have done now.

Because they'd have to close the boat ramp.

[DRSpalding]

Because they'd have to close the boat ramp.

That sounds so laughable right now given the circumstance. They sure could have done it once or twice in 49 years.

[chuckha62]

I wonder how the levee system in the Sac. Valley will be impacted by this.

[rockman]

That sounds so laughable right now given the circumstance. They sure could have done it once or twice in 49 years.

The lake would have to be 100% full. Otherwise, how would you test it? That's not how water storage projects are managed. The emergency spillway is just that. In case of emergency.