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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    This was 40 years ago. That was the beauty of the scam; the 7 day test was really done on 14 day concrete and so on. Plus the inspectors where in on the deal; $$$ or trips to Hawaii. And the evidence was being destroyed by the testing. Perfect! My friend was discussing this to illustrate the corruption endemic to the construction industry. Organised crime isn't just Atlantic City and Vegas.

    BTW the project I was working on the previous contractor had gotten the boot for requiring kickbacks from the employees and I personally got a friendly "free" shakedown from an electrical inspector.
    oh!! 40 years..oh! that sucks!!
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  2. #52
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    We have a saying in the water business, "a pint won't hold a quart".

  3. #53
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    The official giving the briefing yesterday said they "think" there's "competent" rock near the top of the hill and that the emergency spillway "should" work "OK". If that bedrock isn't as "competent" as they think they could lose the emergency spillway and then lose all control of Feather River floodwater. Goodbye Oroville.

    Just sayin'
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  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    The official giving the briefing yesterday said they "think" there's "competent" rock near the top of the hill and that the emergency spillway "should" work "OK". If that bedrock isn't as "competent" as they think they could lose the emergency spillway and then lose all control of Feather River floodwater. Goodbye Oroville.

    Just sayin'
    Come'on, the guy giving the briefing tonight said they see no imminent risk to the public. They keep saying they are not seeing a risk to the public.

    Oroville dam is NOT going to fail.

  5. #55
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    I lived downstream in Marysville in 1997 and had to evacuate for a few days. That was a lot scarier then with that situation than this one IMO. One more day of heavy rain and it would of gone over the dam as they could not let the water out fast enough. If you drive up the Feather River Canyon above Oroville, they have high water signs above the highway from the Winters of 1987 and 1997 documenting the depth. It is pretty impressive.

  6. #56
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    From someone I know up there. He dug up this pic taken in 2013.

    Maybe this isn't a surprise....to those "in the know?"

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-16508579_1212016275513733_1512733581637597118_n.jpg
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  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    From someone I know up there. He dug up this pic taken in 2013.

    Maybe this isn't a surprise....to those "in the know?"

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Wow!
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  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    From someone I know up there. He dug up this pic taken in 2013.

    Maybe this isn't a surprise....to those "in the know?"

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Oh snap
    :wq

  9. #59
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    When the emergency spillway comes in to play, there is only hope, no guarantees, no idea really what will happen.

    They are 12 feet away now from emergency spill. It rose 14 feet today. Looks like it is inevitable because a lot of the water is coming from snow melt up high even after the rain has stopped.



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  10. #60
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    The eroded debris generated from the E-spill is going to wreak havoc on infrastructure down stream. Imagine massive Oak trees with root balls still attached flowing down the Feather. Perhaps part of this contingency plan with bringing in equipment (I heard numerous D8's and other heavy gear) will be to go in and scorch the earth in the E-spill BEFORE the proverbial poo hits the fan. Time is fleeting. They best HTFU.
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  11. #61
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    Up here in the Lost Sierra there is massive flooding. Expect major trail damage. The flow here on the Feather River is expected to increase by 50% in the next day or so. If this increase happens, and is consistent all the way to Lake Oroville, well phuck!

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  12. #62
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    Reports said they were already clearing the emergency, uh, hillside all day today.

    Wish someone would set up a webcam, snippets of TV news are getting old.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronski View Post
    Up here in the Lost Sierra there is massive flooding. Expect major trail damage. The flow here on the Feather River is expected to increase by 50% in the next day or so. If this increase happens, and is consistent all the way to Lake Oroville, well phuck!

    CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance - Graphical RVF - MFTC1
    It'll overflow into the spillway tomorrow then. DAMN.
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  14. #64
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    Hey, bike related! The emergency spillway will run water down this Freeman Trail beside the dam. It will destroy parts of the trail per predictions.

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  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by EddyKilowatt View Post
    Reports said they were already clearing the emergency, uh, hillside all day today.

    Wish someone would set up a webcam, snippets of TV news are getting old.
    A kilowatt wasted sitting on his ass.

  16. #66
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    If you want to follow the record flows on the Feather River up here in the Lost Sierra here's the CFS updated every 15 minutes. It's at historic flooding levels now, and flow is projected to increase 50% or so. (The last reading shows it actually dropped a bit). We shall see...

    CDEC - Data Application

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    From someone I know up there. He dug up this pic taken in 2013.

    Maybe this isn't a surprise....to those "in the know?"

    Click image for larger version. 

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    No surprise, there was a repair done a few years ago on the spillway.
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  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzaro View Post
    No surprise, there was a repair done a few years ago on the spillway.
    It's like a tile on the space shuttle during re-entry. One crack and done.
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  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronski View Post
    If you want to follow the record flows on the Feather River up here in the Lost Sierra here's the CFS updated every 15 minutes. It's at historic flooding levels now, and flow is projected to increase 50% or so. (The last reading shows it actually dropped a bit). We shall see...

    CDEC - Data Application
    It seems to indicate that it didn't dip, but instead is above the rating table.

    It's pretty telling that those trucks in that 2013 pic appear to be right at the problem area. Someone knew something.
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  20. #70
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    The reservoir is now at 895 feet and will overflow into the emergency spillway at 901 feet. It has risen 6 feet in the last 10 hours but the rise is slowing as the inflow is decreasing and the outflow to the broken main spillway is ramped up to 65000 cfs.

    It looks like the spillover is inevitable now for tonight or tomorrow. They will battle hard to delay it and/or 'minimize' it.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-screen-shot-2017-02-10-7.04.53-am.jpg
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  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    It's pretty telling that those trucks in that 2013 pic appear to be right at the problem area. Someone knew something.
    Shooter on the grassy knoll.

    Those guys in the white trucks were applying Bondo; they should have been using JB Weld.

    I'll betcha the reservoir is leaking (not @ the dam but the adjacent hillside or maybe the spillway gate structure) and eventually an underground stream developed and undermined that area of the spillway. All the water coming out of the side drains in the photo first posted is telling IMHO.
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  22. #72
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    Here it is at 65000 cfs.

    The schit is gonna go down tonight. Not cool since folks cannot see what will be happening to the landscape and the river.OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-7dfceab6-1d95-45ea-a9aa-748269eb0dc0_800.jpg
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  23. #73
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    The Sac Bee article this morning didn't sound too positive. I'm wondering what the log jam potential is down stream?

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    Spawning habitat is going to get trashed.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCWages View Post
    Spawning habitat is going to get trashed.
    Yup. I heard 3 million lil fishies have been evacuated.
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  26. #76
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    Leaky hillsides

    Can't happen here?

    (Built a bit after Oroville)



    The space shuttle Challenger incident was mentioned to which I'll add Fukushima and Samsung 7 phones.
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  27. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh My Sack! View Post
    From someone I know up there. He dug up this pic taken in 2013.

    Maybe this isn't a surprise....to those "in the know?"

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Here is the photo zoomed in...

    Name:  concrete-joint-sealant.jpg
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  28. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.P View Post
    Here is the photo zoomed in...

    Name:  concrete-joint-sealant.jpg
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    And that is why it failed! They needed this.
    Name:  flexseal-liquid-sealer.jpg
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    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-does-flex-seal-work.jpg

  29. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    It looks like the spillover is inevitable now for tonight or tomorrow. They will battle hard to delay it and/or 'minimize' it.
    The Sac Bee is reporting that the dam is receiving more water than expected and it will most likely use the emergency spillway.

    The emergency spillway hill debris will saturate the river, with some potentially bad consequnces for the salmon population.

    From the Sac Bee:
    Each year the Feather River Hatchery releases 7 million baby salmon into the Central Valley’s waterways. Last March, state officials estimated that fish raised in the Feather River accounted for 63 percent and 76 percent of the state’s recreational and commercial ocean catches, respectively.

    “The loss of hatchery-produced salmon from Feather River Hatchery would be a major blow to salmon fishermen in California,” said John McManus, executive director of the Golden Gate Salmon Association.

    Read more here: Water gushing from damaged Oroville Dam spillway puts baby salmon, hatchery fish at risk | The Sacramento Bee

  30. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    It's like a tile on the space shuttle during re-entry. One crack and done.
    If you look at the damage the leading edge appears to be right along a pour(expansion) joint. Maybe the ground shifted and lifted the edge of that slab up slightly or water got in there during the previous winters and froze to cause a gap or lift. If a little water was getting underneath it for a couple years and weakening the base under the spillway it could have gone unnoticed, you'd need ground penetrating radar or similar testing to detect it, the force of the spillway being used could have then shifted the slab. It doesn't take much, especially with that much continual force when the spillway is in use. Once theres a slight flaw, it's just exacerbated with every second. But yes, just like the tile on the shuttle, once its compromised its done.
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  31. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    My prediction: They'll have to release massive water flow on the main spillway in the next couple of days and destroy the bottom half of that spillway.

    The top spillway is suspect anyway so that whole thing has to be rebuilt.

    $1billion dollars to repair. But if there's no lives lost and damage to property, then it's not the worst scenario.
    maybe more like $200M, still a lot for appearantly not repairing it correctly
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  32. #82
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    I hate to be that guy (not really) but it's not like our river canyons got carved by the drought conditions we've been seeing over the last few years. You've never seen huge trees floating into a reservoir? Or down the Sacramento river? Rivers change course, and sometimes bring a whole lot of dirt and debris with them. The loss of infrastructure (and cost to replace) is going to be large, but the facts are that we've built this system to attempt to tame nature and sometimes she's just not going to have it. The salmon have been dealing with this for far longer than we have (although we've screwed with them a lot too lately).

    I've met some dam operators, I've been inside one of the butterfly gates at the bottom of Oroville with the guys working on it, and they do their best to manage this complicated system with the resources they can get. I'd be willing to bet that that old pic of the spillway (where they are looking at some water seeping up from below - the theory that is was undermined is spot on IMO) was right before somebody tried to get some money to repair it, and the Powers that Be figured we were in a drought, no need to repair it right now.

    I'm just not that pessimistic about this. As long as no lives are lost and the property loss is limited to infrastructure (that could probably use some updating anyway) it's an amazing and perfect example of our inability to control things even when we go to great links.

    Or it could just be that I happen to be reading John McPhee's The Control of Nature right now and that's skewing my view.

    Either way I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the awe.

  33. #83
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    Tiles, O-rings, FlexSeal...





    I'm going for the Nobel prize; PM me and I'll let you know where to send my check.
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  34. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Tiles, O-rings, FlexSeal...

    I'm going for the Nobel prize; PM me and I'll let you know where to send my check.
    Liquids and gases (both fluids) are always searching for the weak spots. They will find them if they exist....
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  35. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzaro View Post
    Liquids and gases (both fluids) are always searching for the weak spots. They will find them if they exist....
    I started taking probiotics and I concur. Especially gasses....

  36. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCWages View Post
    I started taking probiotics and I concur. Especially gasses....
    Have you tried FlexSeal? It's supposed to dry quickly.
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  37. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Have you tried FlexSeal? It's supposed to dry quickly.
    Plastidip that thing and apply a lil spit shine.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moe Ped View Post
    Have you tried FlexSeal? It's supposed to dry quickly.
    Eek!!!
    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-e0869095145d679c238b85387af7208a.jpg

  39. #89
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    Here's photos from this morning at 60,000 cfs above the broken spillway. I have a friend managing a work crew up there!

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-16650730_10211839722499371_1982167953_o.jpg
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    although there were numerous systemic failures, the immediate cause of the challenger disaster was the low temperatures before launch: the rubber o-rings in the SRBs were not capable of performing properly. i don't know much about rubber, but common sense tells us that it's material properties will change w/ temperature (and i bet it has a non-linear coefficient of thermal expansion). maybe beaverbiker or someone else can chime in here. i highly recommend Richard Feynman's book "what do YOU care what other people think", and the section on challenger especially.

    it is unlikely a temperature gradient contributed to the failure of the oroville dam spillway.

    edited for spelling
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  41. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by dth656 View Post

    it is unlikely a temperature gradient contributed to the failure of the oroville dam spillway.

    edited for spelling
    What I'm trying to point out with my comparisons is that there are often warning signs noted by mid-level technicians and engineers and those warnings are discarded by upper management. (Ostensibly because a fix will cost money)
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  42. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckha62 View Post
    It seems to indicate that it didn't dip, but instead is above the rating table.

    It's pretty telling that those trucks in that 2013 pic appear to be right at the problem area. Someone knew something.
    It dipped briefly yesterday and now indicates it is above the rating table. The River Stage measurement is still functioning so gives a good idea of what's going on. It pretty much stopped raining last night and is just overcast now. From personal observation most floodwaters here have been receding this morning.

  43. #93
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    Here's scenes from the next chapter... the emergency spillway. It is really just a concrete lip that is designed to let water spill over and not crumble. the water will go into a hillside. What happens then is a wildcard. Every reservoir has an emergency spillway so it doesn't go over the man-made dam structure. But I don't think any have come into use in history.

    The danger here is the water will crumble the hillside behind the body of water.

    Here's some photos from Google and from a friend on the site.OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-screen-shot-2017-02-10-9.37.49-am-2-.jpg
    The spillway is on the left. It is designed to handle 200,000 cfs (cubic feet of water per second) to control the reservoir level. But it failed at 60,000 cfs on Tuesday.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-screen-shot-2017-02-10-9.38.43-am-2-.jpg
    This is the emergency spillway at 901 feet height. When the water level reaches that point, water will flow down uncontrollably. The water will cascade over the lip down that hill, 600 yards into the river with an elevation drop of about 900? feet.

    Name:  projectphotosalpha45_02 (2).jpg
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    This is the emergency spillway viewed from the side.

    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-16651055_10211839880423319_1758223123_o.jpg
    Construction crews have been working on the spillway exit to clear trees and shore up the bottom with rocks and concrete. Situation at Oroville plaza.


    I have video of the water path!!
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  44. #94
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    OT: The Oroville Reservoir situation-126beb93-0c91-4bcc-a4c8-3d66ffc499db_800.jpg
    Reports are that you can feel the spray half a mile away.

    It is game on. 65000 cfs (55,000 spillway and 10,000 powerplant). It's either here or the pristine hillside at this point.

    https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/video...5019747636514/
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  45. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by fc View Post
    Here's photos from this morning at 60,000 cfs above the broken spillway. I have a friend managing a work crew up there!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	16650730_10211839722499371_1982167953_o.jpg 
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    You're friend probably knows my father in law.

  46. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by beaverbiker View Post
    You're friend probably knows my father in law.
    Stan da Man, pro enduro guy from Sac.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BStrummin View Post
    I hate to be that guy (not really) but it's not like our river canyons got carved by the drought conditions we've been seeing over the last few years. You've never seen huge trees floating into a reservoir? Or down the Sacramento river? Rivers change course, and sometimes bring a whole lot of dirt and debris with them. The loss of infrastructure (and cost to replace) is going to be large, but the facts are that we've built this system to attempt to tame nature and sometimes she's just not going to have it. The salmon have been dealing with this for far longer than we have (although we've screwed with them a lot too lately).

    I've met some dam operators, I've been inside one of the butterfly gates at the bottom of Oroville with the guys working on it, and they do their best to manage this complicated system with the resources they can get. I'd be willing to bet that that old pic of the spillway (where they are looking at some water seeping up from below - the theory that is was undermined is spot on IMO) was right before somebody tried to get some money to repair it, and the Powers that Be figured we were in a drought, no need to repair it right now.

    I'm just not that pessimistic about this. As long as no lives are lost and the property loss is limited to infrastructure (that could probably use some updating anyway) it's an amazing and perfect example of our inability to control things even when we go to great links.

    Or it could just be that I happen to be reading John McPhee's The Control of Nature right now and that's skewing my view.

    Either way I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the awe.
    Great book! love john mcphee!

  48. #98
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    originally posted by fc

    It is game on. 65000 cfs (55,000 spillway and 10,000 powerplant). It's either here or the pristine hillside at this point.
    Seems like the call is that the main spillway channel is eroded down to competent rock and that not much more damage (relatively speaking) will be done by continuing to run 65 kcfs over it. The video from Friday morning seems to bear that out in that the flow channel looks about the same as Thursday, the water is white not chocolate, there aren't trees being tossed about like matchsticks, etc.

    Compared to the known issue of all the debris that would wash out of the emergency channel, plus the unknown issue(s) of its virgin state, it seems like the go for broke approach of sending enough down the main channel to have the reservoir crest at just under 901 feet is paying off so far.

  49. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by EddyKilowatt View Post
    Seems like the call is that the main spillway channel is eroded down to competent rock and that not much more damage (relatively speaking) will be done by continuing to run 65 kcfs over it. The video from Friday morning seems to bear that out in that the flow channel looks about the same as Thursday, the water is white not chocolate, there aren't trees being tossed about like matchsticks, etc.

    Compared to the known issue of all the debris that would wash out of the emergency channel, plus the unknown issue(s) of its virgin state, it seems like the go for broke approach of sending enough down the main channel to have the reservoir crest at just under 901 feet is paying off so far.
    That is EXACTLY what they need to do. When it gets close at 900 feet, open the floodgates to 100,000 cfs and hopefully match the dropping inflow rate.

    Maybe get 5000 cfs to go down the emergency spillway just to see what it's gonna do exactly.

    I like what you said about the water color. It was brown late yesterday and it's now white. It's hit bedrock.

    Then they'll have 4 days of sun to mobilize and strategize on the next episode.
    fc
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    somewhat related, is something going on with Anderson Reservoir? When you try to control mother nature...and gravity...hang on!

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