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  1. #1
    slower than you
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    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)

    "The orientation and location of the ridge will allow a more southerly and moistening flow later in the week, with chances for high-based storms by Wednesday and Thursday, and the potential for more notable precipitation and cooler temps by Friday and Saturday. The track of the remnants of Bud will also come into play and currently looks to accentuate the moisture surge late in the week."

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forec...AFDFGZ&wfo=fgz

    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
    "May your trails be winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view." - Ed Abbey
    http://rockychrysler.com/

  2. #2
    mtbr member
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    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  3. #3
    PMP,TAN,LAUNDRY
    Reputation: azdog's Avatar
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    Bender to AZDog: I'm not the best person to give advice on not riding!

  4. #4
    Meatbomb
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    Bring on the Monsoon... We need it !!!

  5. #5
    mtbr member
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    80% chance of rain on Friday in the valley... be nice but doubt it

  6. #6
    Meatbomb
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    Where did you hear 80% chance? I have a bridge to sell you.

  7. #7
    mtbr member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phillbo View Post
    Where did you hear 80% chance? I have a bridge to sell you.
    LMGTFY

  8. #8
    Meatbomb
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    OK.. I let you google that for me and I still did not see an 80% chance of rain... I must be a morooon.

  9. #9
    mtbr member
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    [ATTACH=CONFIG]1203456[/ATTACH

    Only 60% now... got any oceanfront property?
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-screenshot_2018-06-12-18-50-03.png  


  10. #10
    Just A Mountain Biker.
    Reputation: blaklabl's Avatar
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    Well, its down to an even lower chance of serious precipitation now, the thought was fun while it lasted. Sounds like we're going to get some hot blowing dust.
    MTBR: Your dad's online mountain bike forum.



  11. #11
    mtbr member
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    Bud Light

  12. #12
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    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-screenshot_2018-06-13-12-24-14.jpg

    Looks a little promising right now..

  13. #13
    No Clue Crew
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    It rained about 7 drops at the top of Little Horse in Sedona this morning. Does that count?
    Just like a raindrop, I was born to fall.

  14. #14
    Meatbomb
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    Sorry but sedrama does not count.

  15. #15
    dirt visionary
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    Be glad this isn't monsoon activity..hopefully we get lots of rain and no lightning. I like what little of our forests that are left un-scarred
    Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of
    arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body.

  16. #16
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    I did see one bolt of lightning today driving from flagstaff to phoenix, and about 10 minutes of light rain. Some spots seemed to have gotten a little more, actual puddles on the side of the road. I was almost tempted to play hooky and ride the BCT.

  17. #17
    mtbr member
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    I am still seeing a prediction of rain for Flag. .59 expect Friday night/Saturday morning.

    I am also seeing some rain chances for Anthem where I live. I care less about rain here and more about rain in Flag.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  18. #18
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    Still lots of uncertainty in forecast rainfall amounts. Below are the SREF and GEFS plumes for total accumulated precipitation for KFLG. Time starts on the left and increases to the right. Each line is a member of the forecast ensemble and shows how precipitation accumulates during the period.

    SREF: Short Range Ensemble Forecast [http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/]
    GEFS: Global Ensemble Forecast System [http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/...FSplumes.html]

    The SREF ranges from 0" to ~2" while the GEFS ranges from about 1/4" to a bit over 1"

    All models are consistent that it will return to warm, dry, and breezy after this short-lived event.

    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-sref_plumes_kflg.jpg

    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-gefs_plumes_kflg.jpg

  19. #19
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    We've been in Colorado and eastern Wyoming -- and it's so green and moist here. Wow!

    So...here's a photo of what developing thunderstorms look like in case you've forgotten ;-)



    Ran into these guys while out there...




    -db-

  20. #20
    mtbr member
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    The Weather Report: 12 June 18 (Hey, Bud, let's party!)-screenshot_2018-06-14-14-31-58.jpg

  21. #21
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    I was up in Flagstaff on Saturday and there was a lot of rain. For a while it was a nice constant drizzle but then it started to come down in sheets. Yeah for rain!

  22. #22
    No Clue Crew
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    Are things opening back up?
    Just like a raindrop, I was born to fall.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blatant View Post
    Are things opening back up?
    Nope. See here: https://twitter.com/CoconinoNF

    Coconino National Forest: We still have closures and Stage II restrictions. It will take more than a couple days of thunderstorms to moisten the forest.

  24. #24
    No Clue Crew
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    Dang. Thanks for the beta.
    Just like a raindrop, I was born to fall.

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