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  1. #1
    The .05 percent
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    Its official, I quit

    Ok, I'm over it. Have resorted to cruiser rides and Bud Light in light of the forest closures. Roger's lake, I owe you an apology. You are a pleasant distraction and have filled in as an acceptable surrogate to the Dry Lake Hills, but I'm done....until monsoon. Here's to Saturday's impending storms.
    Make Flagstaff RAD Again.

  2. #2
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    Pretty frustrating here in the valley too with the heat (and work) lucky to get more than one ride a week. Calling for 110+ this week..

  3. #3
    Meatbomb
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    Attached Images Attached Images  

  4. #4
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    Just poach at night (no lights).

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by milesofsmiles View Post
    Just poach at night (no lights).
    Its official, I quit-law-dont-go-round-here-law-dog.jpg

  6. #6
    The .05 percent
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    Looking like monsoons for the weekend... won't be long

  7. #7
    Meatbomb
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    Lets hope....

  8. #8
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    It never rains till it gets hot.

    But this closure has turned me into a roadie.

  9. #9
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    Iím glad I bought my smart trainer last winter. Iíve been using zwift most of the summer. Might as well get some structured training in.

  10. #10
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    *shrug* Might have had a grand total of 9 no-ride days in the last 2 months. Heat hasn't fazed me in the least =)

    I have been wishing like hell for the monsoons to hit though. While I'll still ride in the heat here in town, I'd much rather be up around Schultz Creek...

    As for weather this weekend, i'll believe it when i see it. Monsoons have been so timid the last few years I'm hoping like hell nature has banked up one hell of a shitstorm for us this year.

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  11. #11
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    Pretty much had Brown's Ranch to myself yesterday after 9:00 am..

  12. #12
    Black and Sticky
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    I have 150 miles in starting last Saturday, combo mtb, road, and gravel/canal. Finally caught up to me yesterday morning. At about mile 25 on road, hit a wall. Found some shade and had to rest. I was cooked. Finally got home, soaked in the pool for a few minutes to cool off, and then crashed for about 2 hrs. Was supposed to hit Reach 11 this evening, but wind and temperature convinced me otherwise. McDowell night ride on Saturday should be fun.

    Bob
    "Some people follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them mercilessly into submission." - Neil Kendall

  13. #13
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    Get one of these wet with cold water from your camelback, shirt too. Thank me later...

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  14. #14
    Black and Sticky
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    Quote Originally Posted by broncbuster View Post
    Get one of these wet with cold water from your camelback, shirt too. Thank me later...

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    Where do you get that? REI maybe? Seems like Iíve seen similar at AZ Hiking Shack.

    I usually carry an extra water bottle to squirt on my head. Feels great.

    Bob
    "Some people follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them mercilessly into submission." - Neil Kendall

  15. #15
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    This is the one I got its all cotton..

    https://m.ebay.com/itm/Mens-Summer-B...r=562580574462

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdcatnau View Post
    Iím glad I bought my smart trainer last winter. Iíve been using zwift most of the summer. Might as well get some structured training in.
    Which one you get, jd?

    I'm considering the Kinetic Rock and Roll...
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  17. #17
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    Its official, I quit

    Quote Originally Posted by NDTransplant View Post
    Which one you get, jd?

    I'm considering the Kinetic Rock and Roll...
    I bought an Elite Direto. My setup. Iím using Apple TV, so I needed a Bluetooth connection.

  18. #18
    The .05 percent
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdcatnau View Post
    I bought an Elite Direto. My setup. Iím using Apple TV, so I needed a Bluetooth connection.
    Think I will stick to my aforementioned training regiment of Bud Light and Slow cruiser laps round the hood. That looks Mind and taint numbing.
    Make Flagstaff RAD Again.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by broncbuster View Post
    Pretty much had Brown's Ranch to myself yesterday after 9:00 am..
    Pretty much had Brown's Ranch to myself yesterday after 9:00 PM.........

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by tom erb View Post
    Pretty much had Brown's Ranch to myself yesterday after 9:00 PM.........
    Been meaning to ask how scottsdale handles after hours usage. Wasnt sure if they were like phoenix in that regard. Night time riding in browns ranch sounds pretty damn awesome.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by sinatorj View Post
    Think I will stick to my aforementioned training regiment of Bud Light and Slow cruiser laps round the hood. That looks Mind and taint numbing.
    Zwift does make trainer days a bit more interesting, especially if you have a nice trainer that works with the resistance from Zwift. Lately, I've been running Zwift on my ipad and watching tv at the same time. Time passes fairly quickly.

    The downside is when you're watching Handmaids Tale during a hard effort and almost fall off the trainer because she just cut her ear with a damn pair of rusty scissors.
    Hey guys, lets go play bieks!

  22. #22
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    To each their own, but I will say those clouds look promising right now!

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by NDTransplant View Post
    Which one you get, jd?

    I'm considering the Kinetic Rock and Roll...
    ND, if youíre going this route I highly recommend saving for a smart trainer. That way when you hit the hills or mountains (zwift has an Alpe du Huez course (alpe du zwift)) it will feel more realistic.

  24. #24
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    I did really good up until this past week. I was exploring other places going on hikes and such but I'm out of ideas. It's too damn hot to do much of anything, I lose motivation for mid day rides once we are over 80. I don't know how anyone rides in 100ish temps. It feels awful.

    Well, I guess I'm going to spend another day drunk and naked inside my house trying to stay cool.

  25. #25
    Meatbomb
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    When the overnight temps don't drop below 95* it's hard for me to motivate for the 5am rides..... Once the monsoon kicks in I'll ride in the afternoon while it's raining.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdcatnau View Post
    ND, if youíre going this route I highly recommend saving for a smart trainer. That way when you hit the hills or mountains (zwift has an Alpe du Huez course (alpe du zwift)) it will feel more realistic.
    Yes that seems to be what my research showed as well. Would be much more realistic.

    Iíd never even heard of your brand! Looks like it would take up a fraction of the space a Kinetic would.

    Thanks for the response.
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  27. #27
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    The DC Rainmaker blog and Zwiftblog are both great resources for trainers that work work well with Zwift. Definitely worth a look if you haven't checked them out yet.
    Hey guys, lets go play bieks!

  28. #28
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    Here comes some mormon missionaries, I can't wait to see their expressions when I answer the door in my birthday suit while holding a can of PBR and invite them inside.

  29. #29
    Bicycles aren't motorized
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona View Post
    Here comes some mormon missionaries, I can't wait to see their expressions when I answer the door in my birthday suit while holding a can of PBR and invite them inside.




    If there are two of them you don't have to worry about one of them drinking all of your beer.
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  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpeshulEd View Post
    The DC Rainmaker blog and Zwiftblog are both great resources for trainers that work work well with Zwift. Definitely worth a look if you haven't checked them out yet.
    Shane Miller- GP Lama YouTube channel as well.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona View Post
    Here comes some mormon missionaries, I can't wait to see their expressions when I answer the door in my birthday suit while holding a can of PBR and invite them inside.
    Pics or it didn't happen....ummm wait...never mind.

    Sent from my SM-J320V using Tapatalk
    I may not be very fast...but I sure am slow!!!

  32. #32
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    Finally!


  33. #33
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    Its official, I quit-screenshot_2018-07-07-14-00-37.jpg

    Looks like a little somthing...

  34. #34
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    So did Flag get some decent rain or just spit on?

    Looks like the rim is getting some now?

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by broncbuster View Post
    So did Flag get some decent rain or just spit on?

    Looks like the rim is getting some now?
    Rained for around 10-minutes over by NAU/airport. Washed all the pollen off of my roof.

  36. #36
    Meatbomb
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    NAU has an airport?

  37. #37
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    Some of the high country around Prescott got rain three days in a row. Not much but enough to pack the trails down a bit. Bring it on!
    Veni vidi velo!

  38. #38
    My other ride is your mom
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    Quote Originally Posted by broncbuster View Post
    So did Flag get some decent rain or just spit on?

    Looks like the rim is getting some now?
    I thought you lived up here....given the smack talk you threw my way via the rep comments.....I assumed you knew me. Guess I assumed wrong....




  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phillbo View Post
    NAU has an airport?
    Of course, itís student overflow parking. Thatís why we are going to have to start paying to park there.

  40. #40
    My other ride is your mom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdcatnau View Post
    Finally!

    did Uncle Buzz do your patio? He did mine....I see some commonality.




  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maadjurguer View Post
    did Uncle Buzz do your patio? He did mine....I see some commonality.
    Sorry, itís the driveway.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maadjurguer View Post
    I thought you lived up here....given the smack talk you threw my way via the rep comments.....I assumed you knew me. Guess I assumed wrong....
    No problem bruv...

  43. #43
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    Ridiculous 97* not even 8:00

    BTW Maad me saying you fall off your bike a lot was intended as a joke not a poke at your reputation...

    Its official, I quit-screenshot_2018-07-08-07-45-02.png

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by broncbuster View Post
    So did Flag get some decent rain or just spit on?

    Looks like the rim is getting some now?
    Spit on the rim? That's what she said.....

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by DustyChap View Post
    Pics or it didn't happen....ummm wait...never mind.

    Sent from my SM-J320V using Tapatalk
    No time for pics but I did show those boys my helicopter, it was a brief interaction to say the least.

  46. #46
    My other ride is your mom
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona View Post
    No time for pics but I did show those boys my helicopter, it was a brief interaction to say the least.
    You gonna have that A-Star ready for Abineau heli-runs starting in January? I'm really looking forward to the smell of aviation fuel in the morning on top of Humphreys!




  47. #47
    The .05 percent
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    Quote Originally Posted by raisingarizona View Post
    Spit on the rim? That's what she said.....
    That is awesome. Ridin this week?
    Make Flagstaff RAD Again.

  48. #48
    Meatbomb
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    Mud storm in the valley last night.....

  49. #49
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    9 straight days of predict rain in Flagstaff.
    Joe
    '18 Specialized Epic 29", Vassago Verhauen SS 29", '13 Santa Cruz Solo 27.5", XC, AM, blah blah blah.. I just ride.

  50. #50
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    Breaking news. Credible source "Wednesday all conconino to reopen"
    Sinatorj your bike abstinence and naked rain dances did the trick.

    Woohoo

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoJo View Post
    Breaking news. Credible source "Wednesday all conconino to reopen"
    Sinatorj your bike abstinence and naked rain dances did the trick.

    Woohoo
    Badass!!
    Hey guys, lets go play bieks!

  52. #52
    No Clue Crew
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    Iíll be there Friday if this news is true!!
    Just like a raindrop, I was born to fall.

  53. #53
    The .05 percent
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    "Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty. Free at last"

  54. #54
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    It's official.

    https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/cocon...d=FSEPRD586542

    FLAGSTAFF, Ariz., July 9, 2018, For Immediate Release Ė Coconino National Forest
    will lift all fire restrictions and area closures this Wednesday (7/11) at 8 a.m. due
    to the recent increase in moisture and humidity, as well as the decreasing fire danger
    across the entire forest and a forecast of more rain over the next 10 days.

  55. #55
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    I washed my truck yesterday. You're welcome...Its official, I quit-screenshot_2018-07-09-16-48-51.jpg

  56. #56
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    Yes!!
    Just like a raindrop, I was born to fall.

  57. #57
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    Glad I didn't ignore the wind and darkness to the east and head out to PMP tonight. Been caught out there during an unexpected storm before, and it was much more mild.

    On the flip side, kinda wish I HAD gone... =)

  58. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by sinatorj View Post
    That is awesome. Ridin this week?

    Oh yes.....

  59. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maadjurguer View Post
    You gonna have that A-Star ready for Abineau heli-runs starting in January? I'm really looking forward to the smell of aviation fuel in the morning on top of Humphreys!
    In this case I was actually talking about my swirling peni$ but yes, from what I hear the Kachina Peaks Helicopter Adventures Bird has been up and running all summer long. The only thing comparable to that smell you speak of is the smell of spotted owls being exploded in the swirling rotors on our way to do another first, mountain biking descent on the San Francisco Peaks wilderness area during the summer months. Now that's the farts of legends, FTW!

  60. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoreau View Post
    On the flip side, kinda wish I HAD gone... =)
    The dirt out there this morning was glorious!
    Hey guys, lets go play bieks!

  61. #61
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    Hit loop trail and walnut AZT to Fisher pt. Started at 8:15 was laying fresh tracks u till AZT where some Moto had been poaching before me.

  62. #62
    The .05 percent
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    Lil bear and lil elden, bone dry. Need some rain.

  63. #63
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    i think the rain we got this afternoon made up for it....but I agree....the ride this morning was a tad dry.




  64. #64
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    Hi folks,
    I just signed up to these forums because i was looking for people to ride with in the sedona/flagstaff area, and stumbled upon this thread.
    I'm a european traveling through the US and am currently halfway through a 2 week stay in sedona.
    As you can guess, i didn't expect it to rain as much as it's doing
    so far, i've done a few rides and realized i'm not able to leverage weather apps for anything useful.
    i've tried a couple weather apps, they all basically give chance of precipitation. usually highest chances are in early afternoon, but i notice that doesn't mean much as often it rains in the morning, or it clears up in the afternoon, etc. Even within the same app (accuweather it sometimes says "clear" but the minute by minute says rain...). It doesn't help that my lodging is halfway between flag and sedona so I can't see the clouds over the sedona trails. (I tried looking at webcams but they don't specify which direction they're pointed). Yesterday I got a mild shower in sedona, yet my phone was blaring extreme weather alerts that read as if i was tempting fate.
    i've tried an app (windfinder) to track wind, assuming rainstorms travel in the direction of wind (not sure if this is true at all), with little success so far.

    luckily since i'm on vacation i have lots of flexibility to decide at any moment that things "look right" and go for a ride.

    Basically, what I'm getting at is: what do you recommend to keep tabs on the weather both to decide to go for a ride, and also during the ride to try to stay away from rainstorms (is this even possible, to "outride" rainstorms?). How can you get a *realistic* idea of the weather conditions over a certain trails area?

    thank you

    To OP: don't quit! keep riding

  65. #65
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    If it keeps up you guys up north might just end up complaining about too much rain...

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    Quote Originally Posted by dieter_be View Post
    Basically, what I'm getting at is: what do you recommend to keep tabs on the weather both to decide to go for a ride, and also during the ride to try to stay away from rainstorms (is this even possible, to "outride" rainstorms?). How can you get a *realistic* idea of the weather conditions over a certain trails area?
    The forecast is about the same every day from now through early September: a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

    Weather forecast apps are not very useful as you have already discovered. It would be better to have a radar app on your phone. Lots to choose from, some free, some not free.

    I use RadarScope ($10 and worth it). Available for Mac/Windows/iOS/Android.
    https://radarscope.io

    -db-

  67. #67
    The .05 percent
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    Na, this is perfect. Got lots of hero dirt now.

  68. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by dieter_be View Post
    Basically, what I'm getting at is: what do you recommend to keep tabs on the weather both to decide to go for a ride, and also during the ride to try to stay away from rainstorms (is this even possible, to "outride" rainstorms?). How can you get a *realistic* idea of the weather conditions over a certain trails area?

    thank you

    To OP: don't quit! keep riding
    They are generally not rainstorms. They are thunderstorms. I make this distinction because there are a bunch of hazards associated with thunderstorms that don't exist with general rainstorms. There are summer rain events in AZ that happen, sometimes triggered by the thunderstorms or some of the same factors that trigger the thunderstorms, but these thunderstorms are generally clouds shooting up to 30,000' or more, where rain can go up and down for a while and form into hail, then it can downpour at extremely heavy rates, that vertical "cylinder" of water can let down and cause extreme flooding and extreme winds around 80mph or more (not tornado, just the microburst winds).

    In the summer, once adequate moisture is introduced, there is plenty of sun and heat in AZ to create lifting action to trigger thunderstorms. The atmosphere is naturally pretty unstable (great for gliders, etc.) in the summer time due to the excessive heat. At higher altitude, like Prescott, Payson, Flagstaff, there's an increased chance of encountering actual storms, vs. just virga or dust-storms. Generally, the high terrain triggers it, although they tend to move off towards lower terrain after starting and if conditions are enough for widespread activity it'll start happening everywhere.

    Pay attention to the forecasts and when they talk about moisture. Pay attention to the high temperatures (as opposed to a cold front that may drop the temps a few degrees). You'll notice a correlation between the temps, moisture and storms. There are a few other aspects like shear in the upper atmosphere that are really not important for a layman's understanding.

    When the moisture is present, you'll start to see vertically-developing puffy clouds relatively close to the ground (as opposed to 10s of thousands of feet high). The speed at which these build can help you determine how long you have, but beware, these things can go from zero to pounding out rain in 30 minutes or less under ideal conditions. Sometimes they just develop vertically but don't have enough energy to form into thunderstorms. But if that happens, you'll know to start working your way back or take an quick bail. Look at the high points around you, the top of the mountains, see what the clouds are doing. In general, whether it's back there or where I am now, if moisture starts condensing into clouds around the mountain tops, something is changing. Pay attention.

    In general, the clouds would start to form around 10am and then explode into thunderstorms around 1pm or so, then peter out after a few hours and around 4-5pm it would be super-nice and just nirvana with hero-dirt, cool temps and clearing skies. The rapid cool off removes the heat-caused lifting action that created the storms in the first place and then as the sun angle gets low, there's not enough energy to trigger storms anymore, for the day.

    This can go anywhere from a few rouge thunderstorms to widespread TS activity that covers huge swaths of the state.

    Occasionally though, the "cycle" gets thrown out of wack, say because there just wasn't quite enough moisture or other atmospheric factors stopped it during the day, then the heat may persist into the night and trigger storms there, kind of throwing the whole "cycle" out of wack. This can then transition into a more stable-rain event the next day or stable overcast that keeps it cool, and prevents the storms from organizing for a few days. You can still kind of track it though keeping an idea of how much the surface heats up.

    I've been caught in TSs in Flag, Williams, Prescott and a few other places. Most of those were events I'd care to never repeat. It's no fun when it's raining sideways and lightning is going off around you so close you can feel the "shockwave" (thunder) with your body. Besides water, falling trees, hail, lightning and tornadoes (yes, a few get spawned in AZ in severe thunderstorms) are significant hazards. You can also go from being pretty hot to hypothermic in these situations and there is often no real cover to be had, so pay attention to what is going on and don't get caught. In the summer, we would often ride early in the morning and try to be getting off the mountain by 12-1pm. That doesn't always work for the reasons I mentioned above, but more often than not you could do something like that, then go wait it out and have a long lunch, then return to the trails around 3-5pm for some amazing post-thunderstorm riding.

    Also, bike on your rack as you go through intense thunderstorm=grease washed out of bearings. Not all at once the first time, but it definitely accelerates the problem. So while you are thinking how awesome it is that your bike is getting cleaned, it's getting more cleaned than you know
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

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  69. #69
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    Horse will start acting spunky and weird long before a storm. The more severe the storm the more dramatic they will get. If they start tunneling you know a good one's coming...


    Sorry about that one...

  70. #70
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    That's quite the monsoon monologue jayem The condensed version is ride in the morning and bring a rain jacket.

    There's nothing normal about the Monsoon. It all depends on the high pressure system that sets up over the southwestern US. As it wobbles around it either pulls up moisture from the south or if it moves too far west the circulation pattern scours out the moisture as the clockwise flow pulls in dry air from the west. It may not rain for a week or more. Either way it sure is nice this time of the year.

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    Canít remember the last time I saw tadpoles in phx.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Its official, I quit-413e6e6b-24d4-471c-9123-e025f28e7341.jpg  

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  72. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayem View Post
    They are generally not rainstorms. They are thunderstorms.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    TL;DR (actually, I DID read it.) Get a radar app for your phone ;-)

    Anyway, there has been little in the way of "normal" with this monsoon pattern. We've been running at the 95th to 99th percentile for PW (precipitable water) since the pattern started.

    This morning we had thunderstorms in Flagstaff at 5 a.m. It didn't even wait for the sun to rise.

    -db-

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    Send them south

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    Jayem, thank you very much for the writeup. a few questions:

    > When the moisture is present, you'll start to see vertically-developing puffy clouds relatively close to the ground

    Like these https://dgtzuqphqg23d.cloudfront.net...-2048x1152.jpg ? I shot this pic last week in cottonwood near sedona.

    > This can go anywhere from a few rouge thunderstorms to widespread TS activity that covers huge swaths of the state.

    is there a way to see this on radar apps? is it safe to assume thunder/lightning is associated with heavy rain on the radar, and never with light rain?


    It still seems tricky to schedule rides in sedona without being to see the air above sedona (my lodging is halfway between flag and sedona). but the recommendations for the radar apps is useful folks. I tried to use one a few days ago but it was basically all light green (light rain) all over, all the time whereas i saw some rain in places but not elsewhere which made me distrust it. (maybe the conclusion is radar may show worse weather than reality, but not the other way around?)

    today however on the radar i'm seeing light rain between 1.30pm and 3pm in sedona, and outside of that timerange it looks clear. so today looks like a good day. BTW are radar predictions trustworthy? thanks again folks!

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    No forecast model is currently capable of the kind of detail that you are looking for to show you the exact area that will be affected by a monsoon thunderstorm that has not yet developed. The light rain that you are seeing in the predictions indicates that the area overall has some % of a chance of rain for that time period.

    The radar apps that others have mentioned are ones that show current conditions. I use MyRadar on Android, it is useful for knowing just how wet you are going to get on your ride back to the car because you are certainly NOT going to be able to outride a storm.

    Its official, I quit-37192263_10156560769012803_1120130962605211648_n.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by dieter_be View Post
    today however on the radar i'm seeing light rain between 1.30pm and 3pm in sedona, and outside of that timerange it looks clear. so today looks like a good day. BTW are radar predictions trustworthy? thanks again folks!
    Radar: what is happening now...
    Forecasts: what might happen in the future...


    -db-

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    I use The Weather Channel app on my iphone.

    I like it because it tells wind direction, humidy, uv index, and air quality. Also has local radar and alerts for when a storm is moving into your area...of course with the monsoons, it might rain in one part of the town and not the other. The alerts are fairly generic "rain will start in your area around ..." Most times, there's no rain.
    Hey guys, lets go play bieks!

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    Thanks for the input folks. In case you couldn't tell i'm a rookie at this. Currently hanging out downtown Sedona waiting for the storm to clear

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    Quote Originally Posted by dieter_be View Post
    Jayem, thank you very much for the writeup. a few questions:

    > When the moisture is present, you'll start to see vertically-developing puffy clouds relatively close to the ground

    Like these https://dgtzuqphqg23d.cloudfront.net...-2048x1152.jpg ? I shot this pic last week in cottonwood near sedona.
    That's not really what I was referring to, because those thunderstorms are already developed and precipitating. The intensity is likely to increase for a little while, but at this point things are coming down and the intensity can change in seconds.

    I was referring more to this:
    Its official, I quit-110403cl.jpg

    That shows cumulus clouds that are starting to develop vertically. On some days where there isn't enough moisture or there is a stable upper atmosphere, they won't go any further than that, and they'll also limit the sunlight reaching the ground, so that will further reduce the energy that could otherwise drive T-storms.

    Depending on how fast these are building vertically, you could get rain in a few minutes or an hour or so. That is what you keep your "eye" on as you ride. Watch how dark the bottom of the cloud gets, watch how fast they build vertically. You'll get a sense of how much time you have, in addition to the coverage, as in if these are just a few isolated cells or it's more widespread, the more widespread, the more moisture is likely present and the more intense it's likely to be.
    > This can go anywhere from a few rouge thunderstorms to widespread TS activity that covers huge swaths of the state.

    is there a way to see this on radar apps? is it safe to assume thunder/lightning is associated with heavy rain on the radar, and never with light rain?
    Of course, I go here: https://www.aviationweather.gov/radar
    I find the site-radar the most useful, especially using the loop function to determine movement.

    Its official, I quit-radar.jpg

    I just grabbed this as I'm typing. What I see here is widespread activity that looks to be in the dissipating stage. I'm making that analysis because it's widespread green and some yellow.

    What you typically see with building storms are isolated greens and yellows inside of them. Of course, they will quickly go to red and sometimes impressive colors that are rarely seen, but generally these are isolated "cells" until widespread activity starts to merge everything in the dissipating state, which is what this looks like. I'm sure if I looked at this earlier there'd be many more red cells and they would be separated or isolated (at least the red parts).


    It still seems tricky to schedule rides in sedona without being to see the air above sedona (my lodging is halfway between flag and sedona). but the recommendations for the radar apps is useful folks. I tried to use one a few days ago but it was basically all light green (light rain) all over, all the time whereas i saw some rain in places but not elsewhere which made me distrust it. (maybe the conclusion is radar may show worse weather than reality, but not the other way around?)

    today however on the radar i'm seeing light rain between 1.30pm and 3pm in sedona, and outside of that timerange it looks clear. so today looks like a good day. BTW are radar predictions trustworthy? thanks again folks!
    Forecasts for thunderstorms timing and location can't be as accurate as frontal passage or other types of weather. It's almost the butterfly-effect in terms of what triggers them, what starts the air moving upwards, where it starts to accelerate and moisture condenses out, etc. What they can predict is that a large area, say Flagstaff, will likely see thunderstorms today. If there's enough moisture, possibly widespread thunderstorms. If there's enough instability, severe thunderstorms. But will the west side of town get rain? Maybe. Maybe not. As I explained above, thunderstorms generally are the result of factors that no longer exist after they exhaust themselves, if the conditions are unstable enough, they'll continue to "respawn" for a while, but that's all in the forecast.

    This is a good site for understanding what is going on with convective (thunderstorm) activity:
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    One huge disclaimer is that the chart refers to "slight" risk of SEVERE thunderstorms, the end-of-days type stuff that occurs in the Midwest. More general thunderstorm activity doesn't look "as bad" on the chart, but don't get the idea that it's a "slight" risk of thunderstorms. Light green is general thunderstorm activity.

    If you really want to get more accurate, learn how to read the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Flagstaff. That will get more specific with times and allow you to possibly plan a little better, but just beware the unpredictable nature of thunderstorms, in terms of timing and location. The TAF (and NOAA weather in general) tends to be a little conservative on the side of predicting things to be a little worse than they are, because so many agencies, contractors and business interests use the forecasts to plan work. It's often better to miss a few days because things were better than expected than to be stuck out there when things are worse.

    Generally, you plan to ride in places like Flag, Prescott and Sedona in the summer just like I was explaining before. You get "in sync" with the weather pattern, you note at what time stuff "explodes" into T-storms. You plan to ride either very early, or late, those generally work pretty well. If you walk out of the door first thing at 7am and it already looks like the picture I showed, it may be one of those days where things go "out of sync". Sometimes you just have to be flexible. As I said, waiting it out and hitting the "hero dirt" is magical. You gotta pay attention to the forecasts to get an idea if the entire day is going to be wasted by widespread activity. There's too much about the forecasts to teach here, but poking around on that website should get you started.
    "It's only when you stand over it, you know, when you physically stand over the bike, that then you say 'hey, I don't have much stand over height', you know"-T. Ellsworth

    You're turning black metallic.

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