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What's happening with the 29er market!? So confused

72K views 463 replies 156 participants last post by  FireLikeIYA 
#1 ·
I read this in another thread and am wondering what you guys think.

Anyways here's what Giant is saying about wheel sizes
"Can we expect to see 29 and 26-inch wheels eventually disappear in Giant's consumer-priced bikes in the near future?

· 26-inch for sure, but 29-inch will be dependent on market feedback. That said, if the market progresses the way we believe it will, 29-inch will be phased out in approximately two years....again, totally dependent on market feedback."

Taken from - 650B For Giant's 2014 Elite-Level Mountain Bikes - Pinkbike

As someone who has been looking into 29ers for my next XC race bike this is a bit troublesome. I know they're just talking about the Giant line but I would guess that other bike makers have the same thought process.
 
#49 ·
Consider that Anthem X 29er has a frame weight of just over 5 lbs, rivaling carbon frames, and you got their top level component spec for that alloy frame. What did it come in at, 4k? That's an XC bike and at 27 lbs for an XC bike, for anyone riding true XC, that is high enough that you would want to put it on a diet.

With 29ers, you might be able to save weight in a few ways. Downsizing your suspension travel needs and your tire beefiness needs are two rather major options. I never fail to see people, claiming to be "trail riders", riding 26" FS bikes with way more travel than they actually need, maybe with 140mm travel bikes (ex. Giant Reign) on a XC trail. 29er riders seem to be saying that they can do almost all the trail on their XC FS bikes with 100mm travel, but they're not really willing to do drops and jumps like they would on a slightly longer travel bike, and hesitate to take it to the lift-served shuttle trails, when they really are interested in such riding, as the frame and suspension doesn't seem to be made stout enough for such. It's not that uncommon to see dropper posts on 100mm FS bikes around my area. Giant is now offering that in-betweener 120mm 650b bike, that might actually do it all. 27 lbs is actually a decent weight if you're a trail rider that wants something trail-tough, and having the frame, fork, and wheels (and other stock spec) being designed specifically for trail, rather than XC, would help cut expenses.

Not too long ago, 29er riders were demanding stiffer forks. Enter the Fox 34 and 15QR. Fox 34 turned out to be too heavy, and some consider the 15QR to be not enough, wanting the 20mm axle and the bigger hubs that come with it. People were also complaining about 140mm 26" forks being too flexy. Well, now 32mm forks got stiffened up, with an improved stiffness to weight ratio and then there's the new Pike people are raving about. That fork is expensive at $1k. There's a lot of options at $400 or so, but they're not too well suited for the kind of bike people seem to want, which is more than XC, but not too much that it's more for the DH/shuttle/lift crowd. A 120mm 26" might seem like not enough, while a 120mm 29er might seem flexy... 120mm 650b seems like an interesting compromise, that might save you from the expense of going with a Pike and building a bike around such a fork, which actually might be more than you actually need. Reading up on reasons to buy the Pike 29, it seems people wanted something stiff (stiffer than 32mm forks), yet lighter than the Fox 34, and since the A-C measurement was lower than the Fox 34, people were opting for more travel as well... a 650b 32mm fork might be sufficiently stiff and lighter, without all of that [excess] travel that could lead to inefficiency for general trail riding.

The more I check out 650b stuff, the more it seems to make sense, *especially* now that I see that it combines all the 29er-driven innovation and proven concepts from both wheel sizes, to please the demands of riders these days. It doesn't seem to be backwards or anything. People have warmed up to the advantages of a bigger wheel size with the 29er, but they are demanding that it be improved in ways that are challenging. I think 650b is one of the answers, if you're one of those riders demanding such. Probably not for everyone, but I'm starting to think trail riders will find it appealing. I'm starting to get "sold", at least looking at it objectively from the problem solving point of view. This 650b movement seems to be an answer to that silliness, compromising on travel amounts, going too XC or too AM than suited for your style, on paper at least. For me to be sold, it's got to prove it to me on the trails.
 
#92 ·
It is pretty clear that the market has moved completely away from 26. Trek, Specialized, Cannondale, and Giant won't be producing 26" wheeled bikes at the premium end of the trail and XC market in 24 months. There is just not enough demand. They all see this. Giant focusing on 27.5 is anticipatory, and might be a great move. I don't think it will be, but you never know. At least they are hedging and keeping 29ers around. All of those out there who don't like 29" as a concept, or didn't think it was cool, or didn't like it in application can basically now get a 26er that is a little bit better as far as rollover, but have a "cool" new wheel size that allows them to still say they didn't go 29er. I think they sell pretty well, but 29er stays dominant in trail and XC. I think for most the 29er will be a better solution, but the market doesn't always pick the better option.
 
#126 ·
Here is what I see.
29ers are here to stay at least in within XC and some Trial.

Specialized, Intense, Niner and others are trying to get 29ers into the longer travel All Mountain/Enduro arena, which may or may not take off and catch on.

650b is taking off and will dominate the Trail, All Mountain and Enduro here over the next few years, and will also be big player within XC along with 29ers.

26" wheels are going to die a slow painful death over the next few years.

XC - 650b and 29ers (won't see any new 26 XC bikes)
Trail - 650b and fewer 29ers than today
All Mountain/Enduro - 650b (don't think 29ers are going to make it here)
DH - 26 and 650b

650b is going to kill off 26" and cut into the 29er Trail and XC bikes.
 
#254 ·
Bit late to the thread, but my 2 cents.

I've worked at a LBS before and as someone now in Marketing, know most of the ins and outs. I've been on 29" wheels since 2007, have tried 27.5" and found it a bit 'meh'.

A lot of what's been mentioned here makes sense, and there's certainly almost fairly even mix of all the reasons that has gone into their decision to focus on 27.5.

Strategy
Marketing wise, it's a great strategy with some small (for Giant) risks. There's been plenty of hype around 'larger' wheels. There's also been open discussion about the downsides of larger wheels in comparison, and understandably, big change (pun intended) is hard for many people.

They've now positioned themselves (much in the way Niner, Trek/Gary Fisher and Specialized did with 29ers) as the brand for 27.5. They've also played on the negatives of a 29er and 26" wheel to a tee, just watch their video with their Pro (credibility, respect) riders on YouTube. It plays on consumers' fears of either having a wheel that's too big or that their wheel size is too small. But it gives them hope that they can buy into 'the best of both worlds' with this new wheelsize. The positioning is so good that it even makes 29er fans take a look - we're all talking about it.

Risk
It's been mentioned here, Giant makes lots of bikes for many other large companies. If this fails, or maybe only drives 2-7 years of sales, it's worth it. They'll have owned the 27.5 market from the beginning and reap the rewards. If it doesn't work out, well, they already have old or existing designs of 26" and 29" bikes they can fall back on and they already own all the tooling and machinery to start producing them again fairly quickly.

Timing
There's just enough 27.5 gear available right now, being produced by the bike manufactures that allows for bulk purchasing and removes the fear that we all have, that we can't buy parts for our pride and joy - i.e. tyres.

It's called the bike industry for a reason
The wave for 29er market dominance has come and gone, bringing along with it folks like you and I. The trend of MTB that 'bigger wheels are better' is a message that is now engrained in the market and press. But there's still a whole bunch of people who can't test ride a 29er on their trails and are still skeptical - In marketing speak we call them the late majority. By pushing a new standard that's 'in-between' or 'close to what you have now, but better' you can easily convert this segment of the market. Once you've done that, they'll consider buying a new bike. Generally this segment is just as big as the early majority, so the industry itself stands to make just as much money in driving new bike purchases. In this sense, it's a potential growth market.

The Future
To put it simply, the market will decide. Some companies are now only doing 27.5 and 29 for 2014, some 29er only and some all 3. Once the sales numbers start rolling in, companies will adjust their range. I expect we'll have a majority of XC/Trail bikes in both 27.5 and 29; Enduro/AM dominated by 27.5 with some 29 and even less 26; and DH to still fight it out between 26/27.5.

If sales slow or grow for a particular segment, companies will just modify next year's product line.
 
#267 ·
^^That's a great video. It is interesting that with all the changes in the bike industry over the years, it's the wheel size issue that people get the most up in arms about. Granted it is a big shift in the bike business but I don't see any bike size if going to go away no matter how much Giant want's them to. I'm no expert but I was working a shop when the 29er got more popular in 2005ish. I saw a lot of riders (myself included) say they were stupid. Now I have a 29er and I really love it.

Each wheel size will settle into its niche. 26 inch wheels will always appeal to gravity riders, dirt jumpers and shorter riders. It looks like 27.5 will begin to the me the standard in the enduro bike category and 29ers will dominate trail/XC and hardtail bikes. There will always be exceptions, but it's hard to deny that's where the industry is going.

And the reality is that it is great for the bike biz. More wheel sizes means more people can find a bike for them so they can have more fun. Variety is good.

It's a lot like the ski industry. Skis all used to be straight and long. Over the years skis became available in all sorts of shapes, widths, cambers, rocker profiles, etc. That variety makes skis and skiing soooooooo much more fun for more people. For bikes, more variety means the same thing.

If you don't like 27.5s, 29er or 26ers don't buy one!

Overall, Giant is not a company riders see at the forefront of the bike industry so I'd ignore their attempt to speak for the entire industry.
 
#385 ·
Nice continued discussion of crank arm length here:

Crank Length: Coming Full Circle

McDaniel elaborates:

"During one particular study, Martin and I recorded athletes' oxygen consumption while cycling on a stationary bike in the lab. We used crank lengths of 145, 170 and 195 mm; pedaling rates of 40, 60, 80 and 100 rpm's; and intensity levels of 30, 60 and 90% of lactate threshold.

"We found that the power produced (i.e. force applied to move the pedals) during exertion accounted for 95% of oxygen consumption (V02). Changes in crank length and pedal rate had the capacity to alter oxygen consumption or efficiency by about 3%."


Cobb mentioned working with a rider that was 6'5" and they got the efficiency desired using 165mm cranks (and 65 watts increase in power). I wonder if Cobb, McDaniel, or Martin worked with any cycling athletes that were in the 6'8" - 7' realm? If so, it would be interesting to see the crank length efficiency and results for that type of athlete compared to the one's they did work with for their respective studies. As well, it would be interesting to see the difference in demands for triathlete, TT, road cycling, mountain biking, cyclocross, SS'ing, etc... with regard to efficiency and whether or not certain types of cycling are more efficient with an adjustment in length or not.

craigsj and meltingfeather are simply (and correctly) trying to remove any "Bro Science" from the equation. And rightly so. Having been found guilty of BroScience (or more aplty BS) before by craigsj and meltingfeather, I have learned much from both.:thumbsup:

I do, however, enjoy Zinn's take on the specific niche that he builds bikes for - the tall man and the travelling tall man's bike. The bikes at least include a much taller head tube. In terms of providing a service, it is a good thing that he provides cycles to guys who cannot normally buy off the shelf rigs due to the demographics of cyclists over 6'4" precluding major companies from producing super HUGE frames to such a small percentage of customers. Ditto to Grant Rivendell (and others) who can build a super huge frame for really tall drinks of water that equal such a small percentage of the population.

I saw two Zinn custom road bikes on RAGBRAI last week - both a father and a son who were 6'8" and 6'9" respectively. I didn't even look at their cranks, but was fascinated with the length of the head tubes and top tubes compared to my size XXXL Specialized Roubaix (has stock 175mm cranks).

I did look at the Zinn insprired KHS Flyte 747 last year when buying a new road bike, but I wanted to avoid the 200mm cranks that it was designed to come stock with due to the crank arm length debate/research - and the bike was purpose built to handle a much heavier rider than I am and felt it would be all a bit on the overkill side (especially now that I weigh 165).

One of my favorite blogs for the tall man tells the story of living life in a world designed for shorter people. This guy adapts many things (including his bikes) to fit. Might be some BroScience in there with regard to his quest for bike stuff (he talks about Zinn and longer custom cranks) that fits and works for him, but I especially enjoy how he made his snow shovel and rake "fit". And the way he does dishes at a kitchen sink designed for the median height person is hillarious.

Tall Adaptations

https://www.flickr.com/people//
 
#5 ·
I know I have said this a lot, but if 29ers leave the market, bike brands do not know what their customers want.
Some want 26", some want 29", sheep want 27.5", etc.
 
#6 ·
29er's are here to stay and I believe 26" isn't going away anytime soon (as a whole).

I do think however, bike manufacturers wish there was one wheel size or at least certainly not 3 wheel sizes. Maybe Giant is just putting nasty rumors out there in order to try and control what people start buying.
 
#180 ·
Maybe Giant is just putting nasty rumors out there in order to try and control what people start buying.
They don't need to. They make money no matter what's sold. Remember Giant is the largest bike manufacturer in the world. Just because your favorite bike company's name is on it doesn't mean they built it. It's probably a Giant.
 
#7 ·
Giant has nothing better than adequate in the current marketplace. And no innovative models- some are falling behind the development curve with steep head tube angles that are twitchy. So their 29 sales may not seem enough...
The rest of the world is just beginning to jump on board.
Things are rolling and 29 will roll over this.
 
#9 ·
Giant may be retarded and think of getting rid of 29ers but id bet they are the only ones. Trek is probably laughing histarically at them right now cause I see ppl buying trek 29ers all the time. Just ran into a couple at trails today that just bought trek marlin 29ers brand new yesturday and today was their first ride on them. I see 29er hts over anything else out here. So it'd be serious hit to dealers here to loose them.

Sent from my HTC Sensation Z710e using Tapatalk 2
 
#11 ·
Most new riders buy in the 29ers (I was no different) and hard tails make the more logical and more affordable choice for somebody getting in the sport.

Even the more experienced riders seem to be switching over to 29ers.

Not that I think any wheel size is better than the next as they all lose something to gain something. However to me the 650b makes the least choice.

Would manufacturers like to be able to sink all their R&D in to one wheel size? Sure, it is easier and cheaper but lets face the facts if they stop making one, they are just handing business over to the companies that are still making them.

That all being said, be ready for 32" because I don't think that is just going to go away either. It may take a few years, but it will be the next big thing.
 
#12 ·
I bet Giant "want" to go to 650...saves having 2 wheel sizes and makes a lot of geo possibilities easier to make and design....can get a little of both worlds, but obviously they'll only do it if people want it..."market feedback". My guess is people will still prefer 29ers with a few falling elsewhere. I don't think they are commenting on the 29er market in general but more on what they'd like to do and if the market will let them.
 
#14 ·
"We have not killed 29 in 2014...but we do have plans to phase it out over time."

Read this article at Bike Magazine about Giant exiting the 29er segment.

I thought it was strange for such a large company to pre-announce the demise and the end of life of current products.

"We are fully committed to 27.5," explains Giant's Global Marketing Manager, Andrew Juskaitis. "We are not introducing just one or two models. We are not testing the waters here. We believe so strongly in what 27.5 has to offer that we've committed the majority of our 2014 line to 27.5-from sport to race. This is the boldest decision we have ever made in our company's history."

While Juskaitis notes that Giant will continue to offer 29ers in 2014, he maintains that 27.5 is the future for the company. "We have not killed 29 in 2014, but it is minimized," explains Juskaitis. "We are not going to turn off the tap entirely this year, but we do have plans to phase it out over time."​
 
#15 ·
Read this article at Bike Magazine about Giant exiting the 29er segment.

I thought it was strange for such a large company to pre-announce the demise and the end of life of current products.

"We are fully committed to 27.5," explains Giant's Global Marketing Manager, Andrew Juskaitis. "We are not introducing just one or two models. We are not testing the waters here. We believe so strongly in what 27.5 has to offer that we've committed the majority of our 2014 line to 27.5-from sport to race. This is the boldest decision we have ever made in our company's history."

While Juskaitis notes that Giant will continue to offer 29ers in 2014, he maintains that 27.5 is the future for the company. "We have not killed 29 in 2014, but it is minimized," explains Juskaitis. "We are not going to turn off the tap entirely this year, but we do have plans to phase it out over time."​
What is their share of the 29er market? % to total biz? Knowing these stats would quantify their "gamble". I suspect they are losing share and made a decision to do something drastic.
 
#17 ·
Funny this thread got started as about a month ago I spoke to one of the National Sales managers for Orbea and he made the statement "in two years 29ers will be gone" His reason was that the 29ers have not take off in the rest of the World like they have in the US and we are a very small market overall. I would say Giant and Orbea are getting killed in the 29er market and are laying their line on a pipe dream. I laughed at him but if that's true I guess I just bought my last bike as I will not go back down in wheel size. I find it hard to believe Yeti, Santa Cruz, Pivot, and Niner will ever quit building a 29" bike. They are all thriving because the big brands like Giant, Treck, Specialized all drug their feet getting into the 29" market.
 
#21 ·
Bring this topic up again when Santa Cruz does something that can be interpreted as dropping wheel sizes to mainly focus on one. Seems like people are misinterpreting things. To me, it looks like they are just trying to make their line-up more efficient, dropping things with low sales, maybe like their women's 29er models, 26 Anthem and HT, etc. and reintroducing their trail/AM 26 as 650b, which is a market they see to be worth targeting. Do people here find any Giant models to actually be desirable besides their 29er HT and Anthem, Trance, and maybe Defy road bike compared to the competition? Looks to me that Giant kind of wants to change that. I think it's not a bad business move, considering that 26" demand is getting picked up by niche brands like Knolly, 29er demand is picked by a lot of competition like Spec, Trek, Niner, and all the brands that used to be in the niche 26" market like Santa Cruz, Yeti, Intense, Turner, etc. 27.5 market is pretty wide open. I'm not sure who else has been successful in the 27.5 market besides Santa Cruz.

Why the focus on wheel size anyways? IMO, what makes mtn biking fun are the trails, not the bikes. Would be cool if we could buy new better trails. :D
 
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